hey grindcore, keyser from twoplustwo here. I think your play with J6o against the whale is terrible. care to elaborate, thx
Ok, I'll go through it and my assumptions and concepts step by step. I'll number them so it's easier to discuss the point where we don't agree.
1) If you were a super user and could see his exact holding, you'd have played the hand the exact same way.
2) I had a confirmed timing tell on the fish. All his snap actions so far had been with air, and all his actions where he had something have taken a few seconds. It's only 20-30 hands or so, but the tell was 100% accurate so far, so it's a good assumption to base your play on.
3) Raising wide vs fish that play fit/fold is good, even when OOP (like a fish with 60% fcbet). If you hit the flop you're obviously gonna profit post flop (on average anyway), and when you miss you can make an extremely +EV cbet. A hand with ~42.5% equity vs his calling range is gonna be strong enough to raise OOP. JTo for example has 43.5% equity vs a ~40% range.
4) J6o has 42.5% equity vs a 75% range and is therefore playable vs a 75 VPIP fit/fold fish, like JTo is vs a more common 40 VPIP.
5) His fcbet was 0 so he's obviously calling the flop with air. The timing tell allows me to know whether he hit or not though. So let's compare the merits of barreling this player to cbetting against a 60% fold to cbet fit/fold fish (which is obviously +EV to do). Vs the 60% fold there are 2 possible outcomes: we cbet, he folds, and we win the size of the flop pot 60% of the time, or he calls and we lose the size our our cbet.
So vs the fit/fold, the results are 60% win flop pot, 40% lose cbet.
Vs this 0% fcbet player, we'll know whether he has hit the flop or not based on his timing. When he hits we give up, when he misses we barrel. So 2 possible outcomes: 60% of the time he misses the flop, and we win the the flop pot + his cbet call (+ his turn call if he snapcalls twice and we shove river). And 40% of the time he tank-calls and we give up.
So vs the 0% fold, the results re 60% win flop pot + more, and 40% lose cbet.
Therefore it's actually preferable to play vs a 0% fcbet than a 60% fcbet if you have the timing tell. Sure it's higher variance, but the EV of the situation is higher.
6) He had minraised once before, which was a snap minraise, and I shoved over it and he folded. Therefore given reads, it makes complete sense to shove over the turn minraise. Assuming he's gonna call it with air is ridiculous. And even if he does that, he might call it with some draws that we're actually beating.
I think if you agree with each individual step, you'll also agree that the play is good. So let me know which one(s) you disagree with. Or if you now agree the play is good (or at least defensible), let me know too