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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by BalugaWhale (Mid Stakes)

Hey Baluga,

You mention twice once with AK the other with AQ about flatting vs 3bet comparing with the AK hand in episode 2. But the hand in episode 2 is flatting a 4bet, i dont see it being the same situation at all.

villain is polarized both times, no?

Andrew

Bluff river here ever to fold out AQ and AJ?

thought crossed my mind, I wasn't confident that he'd fold AJ/AQ.

Andrew

Time Link to 00:56:50

I don't think you can justify your turn check ship by saying well you woulda 4 bet pre anyway as the hand plays out differently, you pick up different info like when he bets turn... why would you want him to fold his air and snap off all his better hands?

Time Link to 00:18:45

So what does it take for us to be able to setmine profitably against these nits?
- If his 3bet size was a little smaller? Say 40$ instead of 44$ - would that do it?

Obviously deeper stacks would be beneficial and I know that we dont know much about this guy yet, but is it possible to set up some specifik guidelines for when to setmine facing a 3bet?

How about a hand like 56s?

Time Link to 00:10:11

if we do fold in this spot, which I think is the best play, isn't it better to just fold T7s in this spot preflop then?
I mean we basically hit one of the best boards for our hand (other than trips or two pair or something) and we are still giving up on the turn.

And now I realise there is a fish in the blinds and your preflop play is probably fine then, whoops

Time Link to 00:14:46

JJ top left: what do you think about a smaller raisesize?
I'd rather make it something like 38$ or even minraise to make him spazz.
Especially cause he can't have too many TP hands.

Time Link to 00:16:19

you shouldn't check out the CO PFR, but the raise 1st CO stat
He is opening 32% (after the hand 36%) if it's folded to him on the CO.
And in my HUD if I click on the ATS stat it automatically shows me the raise first stat from CO/BU/SB, which is pretty nice.

I am probably teaching baluga some things right now, feels great, lol

Time Link to 00:18:02

AK, bottom right: what do we do if he shoves over the top of our turn bet?
and what do you think about a very small flopraise to get him to shove with a diamond or KQ?

JJ top left: what do you think about a smaller raisesize?
I'd rather make it something like 38$ or even minraise to make him spazz.
Especially cause he can't have too many TP hands.

seems fine

AK, bottom right: what do we do if he shoves over the top of our turn bet?
and what do you think about a very small flopraise to get him to shove with a diamond or KQ?

better options with history, i think hes likely to barrel both and/or not fold them on the turn.

im not folding if he checks turn. im not folding if he bets turn, either. if he owns me with a random weak range when i flop tptk, thems tha breakz

Time Link to 00:55:52

A3s top right: so we have 119$ behind, what do we do if he c/shoves?
I'm prolly just paying off, but isn't he never ever bluffing and never ever vbetting worse for value (especially now that we only have a one card straight)?
It would suck very hard to fold with 3/4 of our stack in the pot, but isn't it better to just save the 30bb?

Time Link to 00:56:02

I don't like the check/raise with AQ on the turn at all.
There is absolutely no reason to do so, in my opinion.

We don't get a better hand to fold ever obv and I see basically 0 chance we get paid off by worse.
He is very likely to check worse Ax behind on the turn (what reason should he have to bet AJ here?), he is probably also checking behind some of the weaker draws, if he got there somehow with it.
He prolly bets J9s though to get you off mid PPs, but he won't stack off anyways and there is so little J9 in his range cause he has to bluff 3bet in the first place, which he is very unlikely to do with J9s, cause people just love to have blockers like Ax and Kx in this spot, then he has to bluff cbet, he has to bluff 2nd barrel and not check behind etc.
Not even close enough of J9 and other draws to check/ship here to protect (and if there are they get probably overweighted by other random two pair combinations).

You are way way way more likely to get stacked every single time by AK, A8, A5, AT (hands that are way more likely to bluff3bet than every single possible draw), don't forget the one combo of AA, and as you said, if he can have J9 (which I think he would fold to a c/shove, saving 50bb) he can also have T8 and crush you, so thats basically another reason against c/shipping and not pro, I think.

And seriously, you as the guy that is all about reasons for betting should instantly know that it's no reason for betting when you say "I would have 4bet and get it in anyways". Thats absolutely no argument.
Would be the same like stacking off with AsKd on T987cccc in a 3bet pot, saying "well I would have gotten it in preflop if he'd 4bet anyways".

And saying "I'm just not going to fold them" is just a bad approach in poker... thats why the fish get stacked with their TP every time.
Even if you really don't want to fold it, why do you c/raise and push all of his bluffs out of his range and not just c/c turn, c/c river, where he would probably sometimes show up with a bluff (way more likely than he stacks off with worse on the turn imo)?

This is not frustrating, this is just played bad imo, sorry bro

I don't know why nobody but ceegee comments on that, as this is probably the worst hand I've ever saw baluga play...


I might be terribly wrong with all that, cause you are a way greater poker mind than I am, but all my bad play alarm clocks are ringing here and your reasoning just doesn't make any sense.
So if you still think that c/shoving is good there, please prove it to me with real arguments and tell me where I am wrong

hahaha, now that I've watched the end, I'm probably going to be the Malefiicus of this video

A3s top right: so we have 119$ behind, what do we do if he c/shoves?
I'm prolly just paying off, but isn't he never ever bluffing and never ever vbetting worse for value (especially now that we only have a one card straight)?
It would suck very hard to fold with 3/4 of our stack in the pot, but isn't it better to just save the 30bb?

bleh, its probably a fold but some players are capable of suicide bluffing, idk if mypkrtime is one of them.

Andrew

I don't like the check/raise with AQ on the turn at all.
There is absolutely no reason to do so, in my opinion.

We don't get a better hand to fold ever obv and I see basically 0 chance we get paid off by worse.
He is very likely to check worse Ax behind on the turn (what reason should he have to bet AJ here?), he is probably also checking behind some of the weaker draws, if he got there somehow with it.
He prolly bets J9s though to get you off mid PPs, but he won't stack off anyways and there is so little J9 in his range cause he has to bluff 3bet in the first place, which he is very unlikely to do with J9s, cause people just love to have blockers like Ax and Kx in this spot, then he has to bluff cbet, he has to bluff 2nd barrel and not check behind etc.
Not even close enough of J9 and other draws to check/ship here to protect (and if there are they get probably overweighted by other random two pair combinations).

You are way way way more likely to get stacked every single time by AK, A8, A5, AT (hands that are way more likely to bluff3bet than every single possible draw), don't forget the one combo of AA, and as you said, if he can have J9 (which I think he would fold to a c/shove, saving 50bb) he can also have T8 and crush you, so thats basically another reason against c/shipping and not pro, I think.

And seriously, you as the guy that is all about reasons for betting should instantly know that it's no reason for betting when you say "I would have 4bet and get it in anyways". Thats absolutely no argument.
Would be the same like stacking off with AsKd on T987cccc in a 3bet pot, saying "well I would have gotten it in preflop if he'd 4bet anyways".

And saying "I'm just not going to fold them" is just a bad approach in poker... thats why the fish get stacked with their TP every time.
Even if you really don't want to fold it, why do you c/raise and push all of his bluffs out of his range and not just c/c turn, c/c river, where he would probably sometimes show up with a bluff (way more likely than he stacks off with worse on the turn imo)?

This is not frustrating, this is just played bad imo, sorry bro

I don't know why nobody but ceegee comments on that, as this is probably the worst hand I've ever saw baluga play...


I might be terribly wrong with all that, cause you are a way greater poker mind than I am, but all my bad play alarm clocks are ringing here and your reasoning just doesn't make any sense.
So if you still think that c/shoving is good there, please prove it to me with real arguments and tell me where I am wrong

hahaha, now that I've watched the end, I'm probably going to be the Malefiicus of this video

i dont necessarily think youre wrong. but lets chat

1) the point i was making about getting it in postflop rather than pre is that, even if i get stacked post, shipping pre is clearly our most "expensive" option. its like the difference between floating a gutshot or bluffraising flop with it. They cost the same, but floating allows us to see an extra card, and see what our opponent's going to do

2) as for the c/r vs the c/c (or c/f), if he's unlikely to bluff turn, then I should probably c/f. If he is likely to bluff turn, he's unlikely to bluff river. So, i suppose a better line might look like-- c/f turn, if he checks back turn, then v-bet riv? just feels dirty c/f the turn when he starts off with so much air on every street prior

Andrew

i dont necessarily think youre wrong. but lets chat

1) the point i was making about getting it in postflop rather than pre is that, even if i get stacked post, shipping pre is clearly our most "expensive" option. its like the difference between floating a gutshot or bluffraising flop with it. They cost the same, but floating allows us to see an extra card, and see what our opponent's going to do

2) as for the c/r vs the c/c (or c/f), if he's unlikely to bluff turn, then I should probably c/f. If he is likely to bluff turn, he's unlikely to bluff river. So, i suppose a better line might look like-- c/f turn, if he checks back turn, then v-bet riv? just feels dirty c/f the turn when he starts off with so much air on every street prior

Andrew

I agree with point 1
But this point basically just says that calling preflop is probably better than getting stacks in and has not so much to do with our turn decision here imo.
As you said, it's like with bluffraising or floating, we get more information by calling than by raising, but why don't we want to just use the information we get and try to not get stacked?
If I'm just floating with the gutshot the plan is to take it away on a later street (or improve obv) but when he snap pots an ugly turn I use the information I get, throw the plan out of the window and just fold.
In this case we don't have to fold necessarily, but we have to use our information and see that it's reasonably likely he has us beat, that it is very hard to get value from worse, that no better hands are folding and therefore a shove might not be the best option, even if the plan was to stack off preflop.

Which leads me to point 2.
All your reasoning speaks for c/calling, doesn't it?
I agree that it sucks to check/fold, given that he still is very likely to have a lot of air in his range and it's a great board for him to try to barrel us off mid PPs or something like that.
And I also agree that he is unlikely to bluff the river if he is bluffing the turn (we look a lot like TP then and I think he expects us to fold everything we don't want to get stacks in on the turn).
Aren't that very good reasons to just check/call the turn and c/fold to a river shove?

Yes we might get drawn out sometimes, which sucks in such a big pot, but we also don't lose our whole stack the times he has us beat, which is far more likely than him having a draw imo.
And he doesn't have super high equity, even with the best draw in his range (which would be 76 he only has 18% equity, with J9 it's only 15% and J9 is more likely than 76 imo), with a gutter like KQ he is only drawing to 9%.
I think we can afford the risk of getting outdrawn by saving the 50BB left against his better hands.