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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by BalugaWhale (Mid Stakes)

In my opinion, villain is not likely to ship the river as a bluff, after being called twice on a Ahi, semi dry board.

On the other hand he can have hands like QJ, J9, or random stuff that have equity against us which will be freerolling on the river.

I cringed at the turn shove. Hear me out.

Just because villain is never 3-barreling (which by the way @ 2/4 with only 52 hands on someone is not true) you can't just ship AQ. The only hand you are beating that might potentially call you but also might easily fold is AJ. Nothing else is calling when you shove against someone with a full buy-in who seems reggish.

I really don't think a-xs is going for 2 streets and any A-xs that is going for 2 streets has probably already made 2 pair.

I honestly would check call this turn and fold on a bad/most rivers assuming villain isn't 3 barreling light. It seems like the old 2+2 mantra of check call flop, check call turn, fold river...but honestly with no knowledge of this opponent I doubt we are ahead here very much if he 3 barrels us on an ace high dry board because our hand looks exactly like AQ, slowplayed AK or maybe AJ. Villain would have to be pretty maniacal to try and 3brl bluff a hand that seems pretty face up unless he has history.

It's not about shoving because you know he won't 3 barrel light (which you don't), it's about calling because we don't beat anything but AJ by shoving and villains line looks extremely strong.

Also to say he is getting free cards with random things is kind of a moot point considering he is 3-betting an UTG raiser which weights his range less toward QJ and J9d which are probably his only barreling hands (maybe KQ which probably flats pre 95% of the time same with JQs). Our hand is also AQ which means we have a blocker to that so it's a lot less likely as well.

Look, I know that @ 5/10 3-betting UTG raisers light is pretty much a well understood concept but I don't think you can count on every player at 2/4 knowing and applying this. Until proven otherwise assume villains range here is strong and that he does not know that 3-betting Baluga light here is printing money (for a while). I would be much more inclined to shove the turn here if villain had shown that he can 3-bet J9s or QJ to UTG opens.

Just because villain is never 3-barreling (which by the way @ 2/4 with only 52 hands on someone is not true) you can't just ship AQ. The only hand you are beating that might potentially call you but also might easily fold is AJ. Nothing else is calling when you shove against someone with a full buy-in who seems reggish.

I really don't think a-xs is going for 2 streets and any A-xs that is going for 2 streets has probably already made 2 pair.

I honestly would check call this turn and fold on a bad/most rivers assuming villain isn't 3 barreling light.

It's not about shoving because you know he won't 3 barrel light (which you don't), it's about calling because in a vacuum our hand isn't that strong and we know absolutely nothing about this opponent. It seems like the old 2+2 mantra of check call flop, check call turn, fold river...but honestly with no knowledge of this opponent I doubt we are ever ahead here.

i think this is a good post.
the only point i might disagree with is that we don't know he's 3 barreling light, i think its a fair assumption to start with readless.

id be lying if I said I didn't have a vision of me taking a c/c c/c c/f line and getting absolutely flamed here for being a terrible poker player, though. probably shouldn't consider that at all!

If the turn card burns of a FD, tho, I still prefer a ship.

Andrew

Time Link to 00:33:30

Hi Andrew!
Table 2
Could u explain why u decided to choose such a big value bet on the river especially when third flush cards hits?

i think this is a good post.
the only point i might disagree with is that we don't know he's 3 barreling light, i think its a fair assumption to start with readless.

id be lying if I said I didn't have a vision of me taking a c/c c/c c/f line and getting absolutely flamed here for being a terrible poker player, though. probably shouldn't consider that at all!

If the turn card burns of a FD, tho, I still prefer a ship.

Andrew

Awesome! Keep up the good work Andrew, you have some of the best videos on the site and tbh out of all 3 videos in the series this was the only play that was questionable (aside from ak but I didn't mind that play heh).

I think you're underestimating the value of just picking up the pot in all these spots where you've been flatting AK to 3bets. It's a pretty huge win to pick up a 13 big blind pot uncontested, and I'd find it hard to believe you win this much on average when you just flat.

I think you're underestimating the value of just picking up the pot in all these spots where you've been flatting AK to 3bets. It's a pretty huge win to pick up a 13 big blind pot uncontested.

perhaps true

i think you're underestimating AK's equity vs a polarized range though

Andrew

Time Link to 00:56:15

Even though he might be raising you wide here preflop, what hands do you think he bets the turn with that you beat?

Even though he might be raising you wide here preflop, what hands do you think he bets the turn with that you beat?

i think this is a valid question that i addressed above.

Andrew

Time Link to 00:31:18

can you expand on why you like flatting KK there but AA is prob a 3bet? wouldnt flatting AA make him make even more mistakes post flop because now hands like Axs can't spike an A on the flop and beat you?

can you expand on why you like flatting KK there but AA is prob a 3bet? wouldnt flatting AA make him make even more mistakes post flop because now hands like Axs can't spike an A on the flop and beat you?

basically:

1) if you can get more value post than pre, you should flat. if you can get more value pre than post, you should 3bet.

2) your value pre with AA is obv ultra clean, whereas in that position with KK, its somewhat significantly less clean (i.e. if he gets splashy with like AA, AK, QQ, maybe JJ) thats not super great for us with KK whereas its awesome with AA.

obviously i'd rather have AA in both cases, its just a question of where the cleanest value is going to come from.

Andrew

basically:

1) if you can get more value post than pre, you should flat. if you can get more value pre than post, you should 3bet.

2) your value pre with AA is obv ultra clean, whereas in that position with KK, its somewhat significantly less clean (i.e. if he gets splashy with like AA, AK, QQ, maybe JJ) thats not super great for us with KK whereas its awesome with AA.

obviously i'd rather have AA in both cases, its just a question of where the cleanest value is going to come from.

Andrew

if we have KK, aren't we usually getting it in against AA whether we flat or 3bet, and if he gets splashy with QQ and JJ (and even AK) pre, isnt that good for KK (whereas we could lose action from QQ and JJ on an A high flop)? i.e. if villain will get it in pre with AK, QQ, JJ, vs our KK, arent we happy? isnt part of our reason for flatting to keep JJ and QQ in because 3betting an utg raiser from the blinds might look so strong that those hands might fold?

i understand our value is cleaner with AA than with KK pre and post and that theres not that much of a difference, but doenst flatting AA force more mistakes than flatting KK does because while he will make the same mistakes against us post flop with hands like QJs and JTs when they make top pairs/semi bluffing hands and medium pocket pairs on low boards ect whether we have AA or KK, all of his suited Aces, AJ, and AQ can now spike an A against us and win?

i guess i just dont really see the "line" between KK and AA making one better to flat and one better to 3bet in the same situation.

also, what would be ur standard with QQ in that same spot?

tyia

http://www.deucescracked.com/videos/8281-Episode-Three?seek=234

Why are we betting so small on this turn?

Also, when he CR'd flop I presumed that a pretty viable option was that as we only flatted a donk bet vs suspected weak player whose range is presumably weak SA3 may be CRing pretty wide. You seem to give him more credit.

balugawhale, one thing i noticed about your videos is you never explain your betsizing, which is pretty annoying seeing as how you actually vary it a lot. like there are tons of spots where you made unusually sized bets in this video, 1/2 pot on the turn, full pot on the river, etc.

balugawhale, one thing i noticed about your videos is you never explain your betsizing, which is pretty annoying seeing as how you actually vary it a lot. like there are tons of spots where you made unusually sized bets in this video, 1/2 pot on the turn, full pot on the river, etc.

noted! Will explain this better in the future. thx for the feedback.

Andrew

http://www.deucescracked.com/videos/8281-Episode-Three?seek=234

Why are we betting so small on this turn?

Also, when he CR'd flop I presumed that a pretty viable option was that as we only flatted a donk bet vs suspected weak player whose range is presumably weak SA3 may be CRing pretty wide. You seem to give him more credit.

i didn't really think that i was behind once he checks the turn (or even after preflop, on the flop, at all lol). however, im concerned with getting the most value from the types of hands that are exactly what he repped.

one way of getting great value is by going small on turn then big on river, it looks awkward and confusing to villains and often causes them to call. just a thought.

Andrew