Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

villain unknown tag. what do we think villain's range is when he bets turn? best way to extract value from that range? if we c/r around 3x what does he do with different parts of his range? if we call and river bricks how thin does he bet river and how often do you expect him to bluff?

Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1045567
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $963.60
SB: $400.00
Hero (BB): $781.70
UTG: $402.00
CO: $432.80

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BB with 8 8
1 fold, CO raises to $12, BTN calls $12, 1 fold, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($38.00) 7 9 9 (3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $28, BTN folds, Hero calls $28

Turn: ($94.00) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO requests TIME, CO bets $66

The weird thing is, your preflop calling range probably checkraises this board a bunch. You almost never have overpairs, you almost never have SC's, but rather things like some medium PP's and suited broadways, which would C/R the flop a lot with 2 overs and backdoor draws.
So when you c/c the flop, your range gets pretty narrow on this board, it's monsters or hands like 66/88, and the occasional TT, or JTs/QJs that didn't c/r the flop.

On the river I don't expect many bets at all in fact. He'd have to be crazy to bluff you imo, and he can't vbet TT+ neither. It's even hard for him to bet trips to be honest, because what 9 can you have? Only T9s, and even that only sometimes.
So my best guess is to c/r the turn and hope he calls, because whatever he calls that you beat doesn't bet the river often. We're mostly targeting his overpairs, and trip hands, or a Tx hand that he barreled and feels compelled to call with.

villain is very rarely betting this turn with air. I would raise less than 3x and make something like 2.25 to 2.5x or shove. You want to raise small to price in his draws since obv they are drawing dead and you really really want them to spike.

Vs some villain jamming here reps more draws so he will instantly snap you off with overpair. I've had success in this spot with the smaller raise or the shove depending on villain type.

Calling this turn is a mistake imo because villain is very rarely bet/folding and once you call there's almost nothing the villain can value bet you with. If i was the villain I will check behind with AA since you never have worse overpair than TT. Are you really calling with TT and things like 87?

A am also in favour of a turn raise, I just don't think much money is going to go in on the river that wouldn't have gone in on the turn if we decide to flat turn.

villain unknown tag. what do we think villain's range is when he bets turn? best way to extract value from that range? if we c/r around 3x what does he do with different parts of his range? if we call and river bricks how thin does he bet river and how often do you expect him to bluff?

Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1045567
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $963.60
SB: $400.00
Hero (BB): $781.70
UTG: $402.00
CO: $432.80

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BB with 8 8
1 fold, CO raises to $12, BTN calls $12, 1 fold, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($38.00) 7 9 9 (3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $28, BTN folds, Hero calls $28

Turn: ($94.00) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO requests TIME, CO bets $66

I think the turn bet is almost entirely a value range from villain. I think if you c/r the turn he is going to fold everything if he thinks about poker the way you do. I think he bet/folds jj or better on the river. I think if the river is a bet/call from villain then one of you is being coolered.
Are we basically trying to widen the range he's making mistakes with?

I think every line hero takes after not folding a turn looks really strong. c/c turn looks the least strong of all the options imo.

Please let me know if this analysis is too nitty an evaluation of the range of hands you would c/r the turn with that's not for value. =)

A am also in favour of a turn raise, I just don't think much money is going to go in on the river that wouldn't have gone in on the turn if we decide to flat turn.

I think it's just a spot where anything hero does aside from folding is going to look pretty strong. I don't think villain gets stacked unless there's history or he has a huge hand too.

If you had overpairs would you call the turn rr and re-eval the river w/o history?

If you c/c wouldn't it maximize the range that he can still put in 1 more bet with either as a bluff or for value?

Maybe i'm undervaluing people's tendencies to make bad calls. But his range for making a bad call is not as wide as his range is for putting 1 more bet in on the river and probably bet/folding his value+bluff ranges.

The weird thing is, your preflop calling range probably checkraises this board a bunch. You almost never have overpairs, you almost never have SC's, but rather things like some medium PP's and suited broadways, which would C/R the flop a lot with 2 overs and backdoor draws.
So when you c/c the flop, your range gets pretty narrow on this board, it's monsters or hands like 66/88, and the occasional TT, or JTs/QJs that didn't c/r the flop.

On the river I don't expect many bets at all in fact. He'd have to be crazy to bluff you imo, and he can't vbet TT+ neither. It's even hard for him to bet trips to be honest, because what 9 can you have? Only T9s, and even that only sometimes.
So my best guess is to c/r the turn and hope he calls, because whatever he calls that you beat doesn't bet the river often. We're mostly targeting his overpairs, and trip hands, or a Tx hand that he barreled and feels compelled to call with.

I think preflop is a pretty spot on analysis unless there are dynamics to slow play big hands vs sb/bb.
All of those hands you're targeting on the turn bets again on the river but isn't likely or shouldn't be calling a turn raise.

I think villain will continue with his stronger part of his range. Some of this we beat.

I like either to tank and call, or to CR shove AI to make it look bluffy. But first I consider how he views me, and what he is usually trying to get me to do, and how he thinks that i think he thinks.