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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by NoahSD (Mid Stakes)

PREMIER!

Great vid as always. One question, how do I get the pop up of the previous HH to appear on my HEM hud? It looks a really useful tool.

Great vid as always. One question, how do I get the pop up of the previous HH to appear on my HEM hud? It looks a really useful tool.

On the thing that HM puts up that lists the winner and pot size of recent hands (the thing that I have to the right of the one seat), click the player's name to see the hand history of the pot that they won, and click the pot size to see the board and hole cards of any hand that went to showdown.

Time Link to 00:03:25

Not sure I was clear here. What I was saying is that how draw-heavy a board is isn't very highly correlated with how often your c-bet gets called.

For example, if a nit calls your raise OOP 100 BBs deep (with a presumed range of mostly small/mid PPs, and a few of the higher suited connectors and some % of suited aces), he's calling or raising a c-bet on a TT2r board way more often (all PPs and all Tx, sometimes A-high) than a 89Tddd (Axdd, KQdd, KJdd, 89s-QJs, 77+).

Time Link to 00:21:46

Hey Noah

I was surprised to see you stack off here like it's not close. If this were me I'd be calling this raise everytime because I don't really expect people to be stacking off here with naked FDs or 9T 200BBs deep in the games I play (maybe the key here). I did some mat (hope it's correct):

Wide felting range
Against something like the range you described {4x 9Ts; 6x sets; 7x Axcc; 10x rando clubs 97cc T7cc T9cc QTcc KTcc KQcc 54cc 56cc 76cc 75cc} we have 47% equity.

EV(felt) = Eq.finalpot - amount invested =(0.47.1600) - 745 = 7

Tighter felting range
Against a range that doesn't include OESDs and 54cc/56cc/76cc/75cc our equity drops to 39% and we are reliant on him c/r-folding a significant portion of the time to make the flop 3B +EV.

EV(felt) = (0.39.1600) - 745 = -121
EV(fold) = 215
EV = 215x + (1-x)(-121)
x = 121/121+215 = 36% FE

You get where I'm coming from?..

g_marshy,

You're right that I shouldn'tve made it sound like it was an obv 3-bet/call. I need to remember to say that I'm not sure when I'm not sure. This is def a spot where I wasn't sure at the table.

It's cool that you did some math. Your math looks good, and it looks like you understand the situation, but you sort of cheated by first giving him a really loose range but ignoring fold equity and then giving him a really tight range and showing that we'd need really high fold equity if his range were that tight.

The reality is a combination of the two situations. Just messing around a bit with poker stove, my guess at my equity when I get it in is something like 44%, which means I lose about $36 when I shove and he calls. When he folds, I ship $215, like you said, so the break-even point is 36/(215+36) = 14.3%.

The break-even point's not what's important, though, since calling is clearly profitable, so we need to do better than break-even. Messing around a bit with weightings for various bluffs with gutshots and total air, I think reasonable estimate of how often he's folding is about 29%. This number may sound high, but keep in mind that his raise/calling range is like 20-25 hands, so I'm just giving him like 6 or 7 bluff combos out of the roughly 120 combos he gets to this flop with that are effectively air.

So that makes 3-betting worth about $46.

Calculating the equity of calling is a huge PITA. If you wanna attempt it and post it here, be my guest. I don't think he'd be bluffing a blank turn often enough to call a turn bet.. maybe like 40% of the time he has a FD/SD and like 10% of the time he has air. He prob bluffs club turns with decent frequency when he gets to them with air or 9T... maybe like 60% with air and like 85% with 9T. And of course you have to consider that when he has air he sometimes hits something (i.e. a gutshot or a set or a higher pair).

My guesses from various dumb approximations that I'm too embarassed to reproduce have come up with everything from $20 to $60, so I think it's close but I'm still thinking that raising is probably better until someone proves to me otherwise.

On the thing that HM puts up that lists the winner and pot size of recent hands (the thing that I have to the right of the one seat), click the player's name to see the hand history of the pot that they won, and click the pot size to see the board and hole cards of any hand that went to showdown.

Sorry to be a pain, but do you know where I have to click to get HM to put up the list of recent pots/winners? Really appreciate your help btw.

Sorry to be a pain, but do you know where I have to click to get HM to put up the list of recent pots/winners? Really appreciate your help btw.

Simple, all you need to do is go into 'Player Preferences' under 'HUD Options' in the HEM toolbar at the top. When you open Player Preferences there are 3 tabs that say 'Stats,' 'Appearance,' and 'Use For.' Click on the 'Appearance' tab, and where the checkboxes are, check the 'Show Table Avgs' box, and under the 'Number of Pots' dropdown to the right of that change it to 3(or however many you want from 1-3) and hit apply.

Thanks Noah for your response again. Really makes your vids extra helpful.

Simple, all you need to do is go into 'Player Preferences' under 'HUD Options' in the HEM toolbar at the top. When you open Player Preferences there are 3 tabs that say 'Stats,' 'Appearance,' and 'Use For.' Click on the 'Appearance' tab, and where the checkboxes are, check the 'Show Table Avgs' box, and under the 'Number of Pots' dropdown to the right of that change it to 3(or however many you want from 1-3) and hit apply.

Thanks a lot for that, I've been trying to figure that out for ages! God, i'm such a technonewb.

Time Link to 00:06:02

Misspoke at about 5:50. If you open to pot, BB gets the same pot odds no matter what the blind structure is... that's sorta the definition of pot. I meant to say that when you open to pot at ante tables, you actually lay yourself better odds on a blind steal.

For example, at 2/4 6-handed with a $1 ante, opening to pot is $20 for a chance to win $12. 2/4 with no ante, opening to pot is $14 for a chance to win $6.

Sorry about that.

I think you are way way too optimistic about your equity when you get in with KJ on the J82ss board, I dont know what you pokerstoved but 200BB deep a 2/4 reg calling pre from the big blind and then stacking off on this flop will just have a range that completely crushes you, I think there is no way your equity in that spot is even close to 44%.

Time Link to 00:27:36

what's the worse hand for you to call on this flop?

Hey Noah,
Sry i dont know how to use the link thing but - the 98cc hand where u flop trips ~ 40 min in...

You get raised w/ trips on 9942 fd on the turn by a nitty-ish TAG and your default is to flat turn fold river.

Are you really flatting turn to fold river if you don't boat up? I know htis sounds uber nitty and maybe it just doesn't happen enough to matter, but if you're just calling turn to fold river, it seems like a -EV call.

If your assumption is he never barrels river w/ worse then yeah ur line is fine, but i often find myself in this spot (or similar) and always feel gross about my decision. Vs most nitty tags i honestly want to b/f the turn - but if your read is b/c turn and c/f river, that seems somewhat exploitable. Do you assume nobody ever exploits this so its nota big deal?

Also you say "lets see what pot odds he gives me" wrt calling.

FWIW that makes no sense. IMO his betting range here should (in thoery) make your calling range static - so calling if he bets 1/2 pot but fodling if he bets full pot - I don't get it. If you can explain how a 1/2 pot makes you "more inclined" to call vs a full psb.

I can see worse hands potting for value worse than ours, and better hands betting 1/2 pot to induce hero calls all the same. This is a spot where his range is such where his river betsize doesn't influence my calling range as much as the fact that he decided to actually bet the river.

I hope that clears, apologies if not.