I showed Krantz this hand I played and he asked me to post it here. I already discussed it with Terp, and you can see his response, but I wanted to ask Krantz about whether it was a similar spot to the QQQ hand at minute 42 that I linked above. The main difference is that the board has less draws I guess.
The villain is Bouge_Todd, he has a positive winrate at 2/4, not sure why he moved down. I've played with him before but back in May on a different computer, so I didn't really have notes or anything. Guy who folded on the flop seems to be a fish, but unknown.
If anyone is interested in stats, hes 22/18/5 with a 71% cbet over 412 hands. I can give more upon request. For this month I've been about 23/18/2.5 with about 6% 3 bet, 57% fold to cbet, but I don't know what he actually has me as.
Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com
Hero (BTN): $210.75
Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with Ad Jd
2 folds, CO raises to $6, Hero calls $6, 1 fold, BB calls $4
Flop: ($19.00) As 7c 5h (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets $12, Hero calls $12, BB folds
Turn: ($43.00) Qd (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $28, CO raises to $100, Hero folds
Final Pot: $99.00
CO wins $96.00
I really didn't know if I should bet the turn or not, I decided to because I thought I had the best hand. I thought that when he checks and doesn't double barrel, he might have a queen or a weaker ace trying to get to showdown. But maybe he wouldn't double barrel if he thinks I don't often have hands like 99 or 7x. I figured that he would be unlikely to try to bluff me off top pair, since I generally always have something here (maybe he doesn't know),
I think my range here against this guy for calling flop and betting turn is probably around AT+, A7s, A5s, 75s, 86s, 77, 55. Maybe some weaker aces like A9, A6s but unlikely since I don't always call them pre and I might check the turn.
I can be a fairly aggressive player but I'm also kind of nitty postflop, especially in multiway pots with the fish still left to act. I don't know if villain knows this but I'm very rarely floating here, at least at this particular point in time, although if the pot was HU I likely would. So the hands I could be bluffing with are nearly zero really. The only draw I could have which he could make me fold is 86s and I might not always call that pre, and call the flop with it.
So, AJ here is close to the weaker hands that I'm betting. I made the decision to bet/fold before I bet, although I wasn't really sure if I should be folding, it seemed kind of spewy to be calling a check/raise here without reads or history. At the time, I didn't think he was trying to make me fold top pair because as I showed, most of the hands that I bet here are 2 pair or better, which I'm not folding. And his value range here is pretty small, which is why I concluded I wouldn't be check raised often...
I posted it in the 2+2 ssnl forum because I post there a lot, and then I discussed the hand a bit with Terp in pm's. We talked about it quite a bit but I'll show you what Terp sent me since its a decent summary:
"1) you shouldn't really be betting the turn very often, because your range is heavily comprised of hands like yours and very few monsters - probably a 4+:1 ratio. you should fold stuff like 99 on the flop and shouldn't really bet it on the turn, anyway. because of YOUR range and the lack of airballs, you can't valuebet the thin ends. how can you bet for value if you can't have any bluffs? why would anyone call you if your range contains no air? a smart player doesn't merely call simply because he has Qx or something here.
2) on the same reasoning, what the hell is he checkraising the turn with> as you said, it is dumb as a value line because it doesn't max value anyway. it's not about "playing for stacks" it's about winning the most on average. just as your turn betting range in this hand was unbalanced (no bluffs), i believe his c/r range is too - no strong hands. it just is really poor to c/r for value here, esp when you check back a lot of stuff. if anything i imagine he thought a bet as a bluff would fail, you would bet Ax too much when checked to and then he probably thought you were a bit w/t and would fold it."
So at the time I thought villain wasn't bluffing, which is why I folded, and then Terp told me it was probably a bad fold. Is your QQQ hand significantly different than this because of the board, players, or whatever other factors? Or can villain be doing this for value with a decent frequency? If he can, is it really a bad play like Terp said?
Also, in your video, you said you expected villain to be bet/calling his top pair weak kicker, but is that really the correct play, even against you? Or would you advise him to fold? I would have expected you to double barrel if you had a draw on that board, but maybe check/raising is better if you think so.