Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Alright, I have 140 hands with villian - 30/19/2.4 3B/3.4 aggr/71%FCB.
He did c/r flop Cb once (no SD), but no real postflop history.

What's the turn plan, and what to do on this/most rivers when checked to and when villain bets (does the river decision depend on his betsizing)?

Party Poker $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 170502
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $423.95
BB: $232.65
UTG: $195.10
Hero (CO): $434.25
BTN: $148.10

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is CO with K K
1 fold, Hero raises to $7, 2 folds, BB calls $5

Flop: ($15.00) 6 3 T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10.00, BB calls $10

Turn: ($35.00) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $25.00, BB raises to $70, Hero calls $45

River: ($175.00) Q (2 players)

I don't think he'd do this for value with a worse hand than yours, that makes your hand a bluff-catcher.

I think that there is not that many hands in his bluffing-range when he calls OOP. He might call with the SCs that gives him most of the flushdraws that he could raise with here on the turn as a bluff but I think that he folds most of those PF.

The valuebet range is however very thin 66, 33, and maybe TT. And sometimes he will be raising those on the flop.

I think you can call the turn, but i'm not sure.

The fact that the river is Q probably didn't help him, but a spade is not very good for you. Him beeing on a stone cold bluff on the turn is not very likely.

He does however act before you on the river, and my guess is that he bet the river. I would now fold if he did bet. If he checks, i'd check behind, no value is to b gained from worse hands by betting.

Based on his loose stats, I expect him to have a lot of draws in his flatting-range on the flop. The Q improves some flush-draws and it`s fine to semi-bluff on the turn, having FE. Sets are a small part of his range when he just calls on the flop, but ok to slow-play for deception value, I assume. Still as an underdog, the dead-money compensates a lot. I`m in for a shove, still with very little FE.

The river is the one of the worst cards to hope for, but wouldn`t be in that position in the 1st place, unless I know villain has tendencies to shove busted draws. Fold to a river-shove.

Based on his loose stats, I expect him to have a lot of draws in his flatting-range on the flop. The Q improves some flush-draws and it`s fine to semi-bluff on the turn, having FE. Sets are a small part of his range when he just calls on the flop, but ok to slow-play for deception value, I assume. Still as an underdog, the dead-money compensates a lot. I`m in for a shove, still with very little FE.

The river is the one of the worst cards to hope for, but wouldn`t be in that position in the 1st place, unless I know villain has tendencies to shove busted draws. Fold to a river-shove.

if you want to call the turn because you think there are enough draws in his range then you should just shove. especially if you don't expect him to barrel off when his draw misses

if you want to call the turn because you think there are enough draws in his range then you should just shove. especially if you don't expect him to barrel off when his draw misses

Yes, the turn-call is much better against an aggro/bad, than a loose/passive, but a shove is overall the best option.

I think you have to bet more on the flop as there are tons of draws so i def make it 12 here especially against a passive player especially if you want to get 115 BB in.
On the turn I would also bet a lot closer to pot.

I would definitely fold the turn here as villain is not overly aggro and half the deck will be terrible river cards, as any spade, any 8,9,J,Q,T could give him the best hand.

You are putting yourself in such a tough spot as he sets up a 3/4 potsize bet for the river which he will make all the times when he has u beat as ur hand is almost faceup and he might just c/f the times he misses and you wont pick up more money.

any comments cause I am the first to fold on the turn?
and I also want to state that this only apply to desk analysis. In the heat of the game I would really have trouble folding to the CR on the Turn but hopefully would fold to river shove.

if you want to call the turn because you think there are enough draws in his range then you should just shove. especially if you don't expect him to barrel off when his draw misses

Ok, i changed my mind, SHIP IT! Sometimes I'm not aggro enough on the turn.