Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

22/19, 3bet 5 thru 700 hands. raise cbet 26%. no recent history

if you 3bet what size and why? if you call, plan on turn?

Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 909255
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $400.00
BTN: $704.50
SB: $533.10
BB: $535.00
UTG: $162.20

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is CO with K K
1 fold, Hero raises to $12, BTN calls $12, 2 folds

Flop: ($30.00) 7 2 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $20, BTN raises to $64,

I think I will just call flop & CRAI blank turn without history.

If you 3-bet flop, you will make him fold all his air hands, get a shove from sets/2pairs and against his draws you are most likely end up all-in with 40%-60% equity depending on this draw. (I rly don't think he is ever raising 9x/7x/TT/etc. here without much history)

So, against his monster you are stacking off anyway, but you are giving him a chance to bluff his air and if you get it in against his draw, you will do this with better equity.

3bet flop, maybe call when you have KsKx. Guy is obviously bluffing and semi-bluffing this board a lot vs a preflop raiser and KK is a monster. Would probably make it around 160 or so. Don't want to make it too small against his semi-bluffs and you don't want to make it too big to balance your 3bet/folds.

We really want to stick it in here? I think villan's range for getting it in is at least flipping with us. I would call flop then see his bet size on the turn. OOP in this spot obviously sucks but typically villan won't raise with a strong semi bluff IP. I can see him raising some weak semi bluff which we have alot of equity against on the turn.

Maybe not extremely excited to get it in, but unless you think that villain is going to continue to bluff on way to many turns you give up a lot by allowing villain to continue with his semibluffs.

does he have an idea to how many cbet-raises you fold?

If the 26% cbet-raise is representative, i think call flop, c/shove turn might be best, if hes not checking behind many draws.

What do you think about call flop, donk/call turn? You could balance that nicely with some nutted draws and some gutshots.

does he have an idea to how many cbet-raises you fold?

If the 26% cbet-raise is representative, i think call flop, c/shove turn might be best, if hes not checking behind many draws.

What do you think about call flop, donk/call turn? You could balance that nicely with some nutted draws and some gutshots.

i think donking turn has merit. it's just hard to know how often he'll fire turn again, etc..

.119(104)+(.881)[(.375*428)+(.625*-368)]=-$48.85 if you 3b/ship the flop with a range of a lot of Axss, a few other over cards + spades, some combo draws, and sets.

note the .119 is dependent on his raise-cbet stat being realistic for how he plays against you, not sure how he plays against you or if your image might dictate otherwise, or he could be tilty.

if he has all QQ/JJ he plays like this for value you have +$61.25ev on 3b/ship, but he could also flat AA 1/3 of the time along with QQ and JJ *occassionally* and stick it in giving you -$18.69ev when he raise/jams the flop... a lot of other scenarios too for his range.

if he was raise/folding say 50% of the time your ev is still only ~+$34 in respect to the original range. you'd have to have 44% equity vs his value range with him r/folding 11.9% of the time to break even, i think i fold on paper.

.119(104)+(.881)[(.375*428)+(.625*-368)]=-$48.85 if you 3b/ship the flop with a range of a lot of Axss, a few other over cards + spades, some combo draws, and sets.

note the .119 is dependent on his raise-cbet stat being realistic for how he plays against you, not sure how he plays against you or if your image might dictate otherwise, or he could be tilty.

if he has all QQ/JJ he plays like this for value you have +$61.25ev on 3b/ship, but he could also flat AA 1/3 of the time along with QQ and JJ *occassionally* and stick it in giving you -$18.69ev when he raise/jams the flop... a lot of other scenarios too for his range.

if he was raise/folding say 50% of the time your ev is still only ~+$34 in respect to the original range. you'd have to have 44% equity vs his value range with him r/folding 11.9% of the time to break even, i think i fold on paper.

nice job on math. calling is most likely way better than folding

3bet/getting in is def thin one direction or another

the turn decision would be unclear on any card... blank --> he could have set already, spade --> flush, ace --> Axss, offsuit 8 --> straight, twopair = muddywaters

3bet/getting in is def thin one direction or another

And it's still better than calling.

.119(104)+(.881)[(.375*428)+(.625*-368)]=-$48.85 if you 3b/ship the flop with a range of a lot of Axss, a few other over cards + spades, some combo draws, and sets.

note the .119 is dependent on his raise-cbet stat being realistic for how he plays against you, not sure how he plays against you or if your image might dictate otherwise, or he could be tilty.

Can I be dumb and ask where you got the .119 figure from? Sorry.

Yea i gave btn a pf range which turned out to be 213 combos, figured which he would raise/call on the flop with, 28/213, multiplied btn's raisecbet% by the total combos, .25*213=53.25, subtracted by 28, 53.25-28=25.25, then divided into total combos, 25.25/213=.119.

That should be about how often btn is raise/folding the flop, which is the same as how often hero wins the 104 in the pot after 3betting.

Add that to what happens when the rest of the money goes in, 88.1% of the time, to get the expectation on a 3b when btn either ships or folds the flop.

I'am maybe not following what you are doing, but it seems wrong to me. You say that he is raising flop with 53.25 combo's, and he's raise/calling with 28 combo's.

This would basically imply that by 3betting we get it in 50% of the time, so don't see where the .119 is coming from.

The math doesn't look correct to me, he is raise/folding 11.9% of the time, but raise/calling 13.4% of the time. He is not raising 74.7% of the time. The equation you presented is working with the fact that he will raise/call with 88.1% of the time. Correct me if I am blind or stupid .

Also the thing is that solid player with raise cbet 26% can raise on average some textures lot more often (like this one) and some other almost never (like paired very dry), so we can be quite off when using his raise cbet stat.