---

Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by WiltOnTilt (Mid Stakes)

Time Link to 00:27:47

I don't mind checking the turn as long as you are overbet jamming any river when it checks around.

I don't mind checking the turn as long as you are overbet jamming any river when it checks around.

why?

why?

One reason to bet the turn was given that we might miss value from the fish; he isn't folding a 6 on the river if we jam so we don't miss any value there.

pianospike is probably never putting in more chips without a J anyway, and he will call an overbet jam with that anyway (although he will almost always bet it on the turn too). If we bet and pianospike calls or jams, the fish might get muslced out with two-pair; if pianospike bets a J the fish might call and we can trap more dead money with our nuts.

The only time we miss value is when pianospike and the fish have dogshit; that will be balanced by the times that we pick up spaz-value from bluffs by the fish, the fish calls us on the river with twopair or a set, or when a J or 6 comes on the river and he calls us to play the board.

So I counted the value combos WoT could have, in that last hand:
QJ 6
KT 12
Q9 6
J9 9
Q6 6
J6 9
JJ 3
QQ 1
66 3
AQ 8
KK 3
AA 6

for a total of 72 combos!

He is getting around 2:1 on a call though, he needs to be good 30% of the time, so if he can find 22 bluffing combo's or more, he should be alright.
JT 12
AT 16
K9,T9 etc, and eventhough not all play the same way (bet the turn), there seem to be enough bluffs in there.

One reason to bet the turn was given that we might miss value from the fish; he isn't folding a 6 on the river if we jam so we don't miss any value there.

pianospike is probably never putting in more chips without a J anyway, and he will call an overbet jam with that anyway (although he will almost always bet it on the turn too). If we bet and pianospike calls or jams, the fish might get muslced out with two-pair; if pianospike bets a J the fish might call and we can trap more dead money with our nuts.

The only time we miss value is when pianospike and the fish have dogshit; that will be balanced by the times that we pick up spaz-value from bluffs by the fish, the fish calls us on the river with twopair or a set, or when a J or 6 comes on the river and he calls us to play the board.

when the turn checks around, neither villain has a jack but a super small % and I don't think there's any guarantee that 6x calls an overbet.

their combined ranges for checking the turn are very unlikely to call an overbet. that doesn't mean it might not be best depending on how often they call other sizes, but I doubt it's optimal

Wilt - I think the term you were looking for was Devils Advocate.

when the turn checks around, neither villain has a jack but a super small % and I don't think there's any guarantee that 6x calls an overbet.

their combined ranges for checking the turn are very unlikely to call an overbet. that doesn't mean it might not be best depending on how often they call other sizes, but I doubt it's optimal

So if you have a hand like AT and the turn checks around you are overbetting the river (as a bluff) close to 100%, given that they never call this bet size.

So if you have a hand like AT and the turn checks around you are overbetting the river (as a bluff) close to 100%, given that they never call this bet size.

100%

Time Link to 00:29:25

on the T98 7 board, you mention you check the turn because you would do this with the majority of your range. This would include sets, two pairs, and hands like AT, correct? You never mentioned how you continue in the hand with these hands after the PFR bets the turn and the fish folds. Sets are an easy ch/C (shove is not getting called by worse) but do we then ch/F the blank river? What do you do with a hand like 98s/T9s/T8s here? Do you expect UTG to check behind or vbet his QQ+? AT just ch/fold the turn, correct? If he checks behind the turn and the river is blank, what do we do with sets/2pairs/TPTK? ch/F? what about 6x?

on the T98 7 board, you mention you check the turn because you would do this with the majority of your range. This would include sets, two pairs, and hands like AT, correct? You never mentioned how you continue in the hand with these hands after the PFR bets the turn and the fish folds. Sets are an easy ch/C (shove is not getting called by worse) but do we then ch/F the blank river? What do you do with a hand like 98s/T9s/T8s here? Do you expect UTG to check behind or vbet his QQ+? AT just ch/fold the turn, correct? If he checks behind the turn and the river is blank, what do we do with sets/2pairs/TPTK? ch/F? what about 6x?

prob c/c sets, c/f everything else. turn bettor has mostly Jx

prob c/c sets, c/f everything else. turn bettor has mostly Jx

So ch/C turn, ch/F sets on blank river then, correct? And if turn checks around (so fish is still in pot on river) can we ever vbet a blank river with a set or 2 pair?

So ch/C turn, ch/F sets on blank river then, correct? And if turn checks around (so fish is still in pot on river) can we ever vbet a blank river with a set or 2 pair?

yes

maybe small

So ch/C turn, ch/F sets on blank river then, correct? And if turn checks around (so fish is still in pot on river) can we ever vbet a blank river with a set or 2 pair?

Do we really get good enough odds to check/call the turn with a set knowing that villain always has a straight? It also seems hard to get paid if we fill up on the river.
Great video btw. Maybe Aaron can also include some hands where he owns people, not the other way round

Do we really get good enough odds to check/call the turn with a set knowing that villain always has a straight? It also seems hard to get paid if we fill up on the river.
Great video btw. Maybe Aaron can also include some hands where he owns people, not the other way round

obv not c/c every turn bet size