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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by WiltOnTilt (Mid Stakes)

p.s. shipping KQ pre? maybe you meant 4betting AQ/AK (would 4bet those small not ship them)

Yeah, that's actually exactly what I meant lol

I'm pretty sure you just misspoke here since I think it's pretty clear with 1 card to come we have < 50% equity. 49% is our equity on the flop. After the turn, we have ~30% equity.

i was joking. thx for the fine tooth comb

i was joking. thx for the fine tooth comb

was hoping so sometimes hard to tell w/ you! (not because you are dumb lol, bc of your humor style)

this got me thinking though, what IS the most equity we could possibly have in the perfect situation w/ 1 card to come?

I just ran one simulation and got 51%.

+1

Also to Zed - the idea for this series was actually originally pulled from a suggestion that TheGeek proposed called Range Raiders.

Really? It seems like too strange a coincidence that the most voted for suggestion, titled 'home on the range' -- which takes it's name from the kansas state song -- contains in its' first line the phrase 'oh give me a home where the buffalo roaaammm' http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_on_the_Range

No connection there? okeeee. anyways here's an example of what i'm talking about WillofTilt/jk3a:





SB: $204.00
BB: $392.55
Hero (UTG): $200.00
MP: $206.00
CO: $228.30
BTN: $200.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG with K K
Hero raises to $6, 4 folds, BB calls $4

Flop: ($13.00) T K J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10.00, BB calls $10

Turn: ($33.00) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($33.00) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $16.00, Hero ?

Hero = tag reg
Villain = tight tag reg


Villain is calling pf w/ a range that constitutes about 10% of hands in the bb vs a utg open from a villain like hero. 10% of hands is ~132 combs.

When Villain c/calls the flop he will only do so w/ 40 of those 132 combos, 21 of which contain a Queen.

On the river, villain will lead a queen 100% of the time and has a queen 21/40 of the time. Of the 19 other combos, 8 include worse hands villain will value bet, 8 include combos villain will bluff with and the remaining 3 villain will just give up with.

So of the 40 combos villain c/calls the flop with and gets to the river with, he's only betting 37 of those 40. 21/37 or 56.7% of the time villain has a queen, and 16/37 = 43.2% villain is either bluffing or value betting worse.


On the river Villain bets 16 into 33 meaning hero has to be good 16/(16+16+33) = 24.6% to b/e. (.432*49)+(.567*-16)=$12.1 so cal;ling is +ev by that much.

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I just thought it was the one I recommened because of the name of and how similar it was to thte one i suggested so i felt i had to speak up but it sounds like this is a different concept series and definitely not having anything to do with the suggestion i made in that other page.

i really liked this one, and only said what i said because i thought this series was the result of my suggestion. now that I know they have nothing to do with eachother it makes sense how they are different.

Thankyou, God bless our troops, and God bless America.

Obviously I don't know anything about dynamics at these kind of stakes, but it would seem to me that our range is quite capped given we didn't 4bet pre.
No AK/AQ/AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT. But still, a lot of our hands have a J: non J hands: AT/KQ/KT/QT (36combos), and AJ/KJ/QJ/JT (48) that get to the river like that.
Also, he probably expects you to raise a J 'some' percent of the time, thereby discounting it. Another factor that may make him think you raise a J is that he can't expect you to think that he'd bet his 2P (or sets) on the river, thereby losing value if you actually have a J. Position is pretty cool!

Obviously he does get owned a lot since you do have so many J's in your range. But if you actually never raise a J on the turn, doesn't that make a call with QT kinda bad? I mean, he can have lotsa J's too, and you don't need to make that call if you're gonna be calling half the time with the nuts anyway, or do you expect so many bluffs on his part? (hard to fathom)

On another note, I'm in the NOT so much math camp, I like hearing both of your thoughts much more, and listening to play considerations, because they are much more valuable ingame. Hearing you tear a range apart is great (with pokerstove). Maybe EVcalcs can be set up as homework for the viewers. You already explained that stuff in your Math series, and just hearing it again won't help much for those that don't know because you gotta actually pick up a calculator and do it yourself for it to stick. So I think it would be a waste of time. And if you do use EV calculations, don't do them during the video, just show results, and viewers can actually check them themselves to see if they are correct.
Just my 2 cents!

Very enjoyable!

No connection there? okeeee.....

It is obviously somewhat related, but the description I posted (which is the idea Zuberi posted 6 months ago) is where we ORIGINALLY got the idea. It sounds like it is important for you to be recognized though so thank you for posting the suggestion. The votes it received helped confirm that people wanted to see a series like this.

That being said, they have only recorded one episode and they can clearly incorporate new ideas (like they have posted already).

was hoping so sometimes hard to tell w/ you! (not because you are dumb lol, bc of your humor style)

this got me thinking though, what IS the most equity we could possibly have in the perfect situation w/ 1 card to come?

I just ran one simulation and got 51%.

super dry humor ftw. let me know what you come up with. more interesting in plo i think

was hoping so sometimes hard to tell w/ you! (not because you are dumb lol, bc of your humor style)

this got me thinking though, what IS the most equity we could possibly have in the perfect situation w/ 1 card to come?

I just ran one simulation and got 51%.

I got 56.8% equity w/ kqh vs 22 (no heart) on jhthtc6c

No love for my post

Any chance you guys gonna breakdown the numbers to see how dead money fits in - and what sort of range he should ascribe you?

Or was my first post - so off the mark?

I got 56.8% equity w/ kqh vs 22 (no heart) on jhthtc6c

linkwood vs tecmo

linkwood 1, tecmo 0

No love for my post

Any chance you guys gonna breakdown the numbers to see how dead money fits in - and what sort of range he should ascribe you?

Or was my first post - so off the mark?

Hey Digger, did you see Peesocake's post where he counted the combos of the 2pairs vs the Jx hands and got 36 combos of 2pairs vs the 48 combos of Jx?

It is possible that I don't "need" to bluff catch with 2pair here because I'll have "enough" Jx but again it depends on which level he's on and where he thinks I'm at. Does he expect me to call him with 1pair? 2pair? or Jx only? He can probably take this line with 100% of his hands worse than the worst 2pair he thinks I call with and bluff with them and show a profit, depending on exactly how wide his range is pf and what he does with some hands like TPNK (if he cbets them and is willing to bluff that turn card with them).

It's really hard to say but if we can narrow his value range to Jx, AA/KK, and air (which is basically what I think is reasonable for most tags that I don't have a specific read on) then I think it's pretty reasonable to bluff catch with 2pair here given how hard it is for him to have Jx once he cbets (again as stated in the vid I'd expect him to check KJ, JT, and JJ behind on the flop as a default).

Obv he owned me here by correctly assessing the level I was on and being willing to make a nice thin value bet with a hand I didn't give him credit for.

Does that help?

edit: he's risking close to 1:1 on his bluff, so he's going to need me to fold a little less than half the time

Hi, seems like an epic series.
I was just wondering how to get a popup like yours to 3bet stat?

thank you

Wilt:
(a) Wouldnt you 4-bet/call AJ pre - reducing your Jx more.

And if you are gonna bluff catch - surely you can only ever bluff catch with two pair? Otherwise your frequency is too high - amirite?

Does he flat call BvB? How often does that happen HSNL bvB or is it always 3-bet or fold?

I would have thought his PF 3-bet range would be - 22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J7s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,ATo+,KJo+ ~ 20%

And your call3b range - is
AJs-ATs,KJs-K9s,Q9s+,J8s+,T9s,98s,87s,AJo-ATo,KJo-K9o,Q9o+,JTo ~12%


So am I right in saying that you are saying that your Jx is sufficient in numbers to do all the bluffcatching on this board?
i.e. the nature of his 3-betting range is not bottom heavy enough to have enough air for him to be unbalanced enough that you need to expand to the 2 pairs in your bluffcatching range?

As to advice to the series.

I really prefer more HHs and mathematics rather than live play or recorded session stuff.

Wilt - always gets self consious saying he is rambling too much in those anyway.

Both of you love talking in depth and are very good at it - I think repeats of this style and with some maths is perfect imo.

If we narrow down his range to AA/KK and AJ and QJ that's 26 combos, so he needs to have about 26 bluffing combos to break even. What kind of hands would that be? If he doesn't vbet KJ, he probably doesn't vbet any pair, except maybe Ax(s) and he might want to pot control those at some point as well. Also are they in his 3bet range? Do we know anything about that? Is it maybe our preflop call with QTo OOP that's not good? We don't really know much about him do we?
So what does he 3barrelbluffs that he 3bets preflop?

Our range is pretty Jheavy though (4:3) when we call the turn, because we probably fold a lot of our 1P hands right there (including A9s, and other Ax if they're there). Or not? Doesn't that make his bet with AQ kinda dangerous for him?

Also we don't know about his 3barrels, I mean, can't he pretty much own us in this spot by giving up on his bluffs on the river, but betting the top of his range (AQ belongs to it if he expects AT,KT,KQ,QT to call)?

Maybe there were timing issues that might has swayed him into believing we don't have a J?

linkwood vs tecmo

linkwood 1, tecmo 0

haha blast!

Hi, seems like an epic series.
I was just wondering how to get a popup like yours to 3bet stat?

thank you

http://www.deucescracked.com/videos/4741-Episode-Two , Sthief shows how to do it in this video.

good 1st video, enjoyed it.

Sick last hand. The AQ is a value shove given he beats all other 2 pair combos in your range and your obv never folding/getting to river w/ better.

That 1st hand hero call with AK was funny lol.

Excellent video ! I would like to see some more math. If you could id like to see how it relates to adjusting our 3b/4bet/5bet ranges and how we can construct the range based on limited info about a villian , such as stats , a hand that went to showdown and maybe cover sample size issues. That may be to off topic for this series. Are there any videos on DC that cover this ?

Time Link to 00:06:20

Seems like this will be another moe new epic series after Moneytraind to Midstakesvill - great!^^

@math:
Aren`t the Implieds here about 14:1, isntead 13:1?
my calculation: (2+12+44+393) : 32 = 14 : 1

Or have I anywhere a misstake here?

Time Link to 00:08:21

Hm, AQ seems here at least in the vacuum very very close b/c of reverse + also b/c of EQ - > reason: Imo in this spot in the vacuum the most Villains would only flat here JJ in a high frequency, which is actually good.

i was joking. thx for the fine tooth comb

SARCHASM: The gulf between the author of sarcastic wit and the recipient who doesn't get it.

I really enjoyed this format. Keep doing this! Math is fine as long as you don't take it too far and it is accurate.

Brilliant, tyvw!

On another note, I'm in the NOT so much math camp, I like hearing both of your thoughts much more, and listening to play considerations, because they are much more valuable ingame. Hearing you tear a range apart is great (with pokerstove). Maybe EVcalcs can be set up as homework for the viewers. You already explained that stuff in your Math series, and just hearing it again won't help much for those that don't know because you gotta actually pick up a calculator and do it yourself for it to stick. So I think it would be a waste of time. And if you do use EV calculations, don't do them during the video, just show results, and viewers can actually check them themselves to see if they are correct.
Just my 2 cents!

+1
Knowing how to do the calcs is important, but there is no way to always make the mathematically correct decision while 4+tabling...as part of the original suggestion, I would like to see/hear how you develop ranges (w/out seeing cards) based on 1)position, 2)boards, and 3)bet/raise size. I believe Improva did video like this, but a series from jk3a and WoT = perty damn cool...