yeah it's a pity that audio quality is terrible. love the series ![]()
Jk3a and TecmoSuperBowl talk about the hands jk3a has recently played and thought would bring about good discussion points.
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yeah it's a pity that audio quality is terrible. love the series ![]()
I didn't have a problem with the sound. Bunch of soccer divers ITT. ![]()
Time Link to 00:19:44
on The QK4tt 3 with AK vs the small double donk, are you playing this board differently if you DON'T have the Ad? When I saw his small turn bet on the blank, I immediately thought he probably has diamonds, but then when you think about combos, the only real diamond draw out there is JT (I'm assuming most at this level aren't flatting 3bets with smal SC'ers). When we have a different A, however, there are many more flush draws in his range. I assume we're more interested in raising as a result, but where do you prefer to do it? On the flop or the turn?
Time Link to 00:25:35
The JJ on the K72tt 3 A(f) is a really interesting spot. I must say, I was totally behind TSB at first and would almost certainly have ch/F in game.
My reasoning would be he is so likely to check behind the blank turn with a flush draw or an Ax that he stabbed the flop with and now vbet the river when improved. I assumed if he had stabbed the flop with air that never improves, then he gives up completely (on the turn)...I guess I just don't have a lot of confidence that fishy villains bluff this river after previously planning to give up on the turn. I'm not sure if this is a player-dependent kind of spot or what, but I'm still not feeling great about making calls when fishy players bet/ch/bet after a missed cbet, especially on an A river when his flop air range has a ton of Ax in it.
But what I hear JK3A saying is that the villain has a wide range, including a lot of air that bets when ch to on the flop, and this same range gets to this river and might be inclined to bet when the turn goes ch/ch and we check the Asss river to him.
So the deciding factors seem to be whether the hands in his range with SD value that beat us (like A rag or Kx) will typically bet or check behind, and how often he's stabbing the flop, checking the turn, and bluffing the river on a scare card(with air). Can you give some more explanation on how to determine if a villain is more likely to vbet here or bluff? Does this spot have more to do with the overwhelming combos of air in his range due to his pre flop looseness compared to hands that beat us? Does bet size on the river have anything to do with it?
If this is an easy call, I'm missing a ton of spots, and really need some extra help spotting these opportunities.
What I often tend to do to prevent these difficult spots (for me) is just bet/call the flop. It is almost certainly more +ev to ch/C if you can confidently play the rest of the hand and extract more $ from his bluffs!
Thanks a bunch!
Quiz --
I think that he is betting a hand like JTs-ATs, JJ-AA, 55, and maybe 77 88 99. I'm not sure if he is ever bluffing this river, and he might even be inclined to check back a hand like 56s here as well. I think that there are so many combos of boats he can have here it outweighs the combos of air he could possibly be turning into a bluff on the river after we check 2 streets after the flop.
on The QK4tt 3 with AK vs the small double donk, are you playing this board differently if you DON'T have the Ad? When I saw his small turn bet on the blank, I immediately thought he probably has diamonds, but then when you think about combos, the only real diamond draw out there is JT (I'm assuming most at this level aren't flatting 3bets with smal SC'ers). When we have a different A, however, there are many more flush draws in his range. I assume we're more interested in raising as a result, but where do you prefer to do it? On the flop or the turn?
with the shallow stacks and no reads, i'm not to worried about flush draws without Ad. think i'd prob jam turn, but still think calling can be good
Time Link to 00:43:21
on the 852dd Tss 5 board with A6s, would you vbet the river if it was the Ad? We beat a good portion of his range, but since we're talking about bluffing J/Q/K's on the river, it would seem we may only get called by better (especially when the flop flush draw hits). What about an offsuit A? If we decide checking is best and he bets, can we call profitably (lets say 2/3 or 1/2 pot size)?
Time Link to 00:48:12
For the Quiz:
villain looks TAG (a little tight). The flop is so dry, he would cbet with his entire opening range, but your ch/R should look strong (or at least polarized because it's a dry board) so I think he folds all unpaired suited connectors, small pocket pairs 22-77 (that aren't sets) and overs like AK/KQ/QJs nearly 100% of the time. I don't think he opens 54s in MP very often, and all other 2 pair combos are definitely out of the question. He MAY call the ch/R with 56s or a hand like 88/99. This means his widest range for calling the flop ch/R is 54s/65s/88/99/55/44/TT+ and AT/KTs/QTs/JTs. I don't expect him to 3bet his 54s, sets and overpairs very often here because you really can't be on a draw, so your range looks polarized.
His turn check behind doesn't change much imo. Since your flop ch/R range was so polarized, he can't expect to get value from his 1 pair hands very often and is probably pot controlling with SD value 56s/88/99/JT/QT/KT/AT/JJ+), and if the 4 significantly improves his hand it is now invulnerable (TT/44/55/54) and he wants to induce bluffs or let you catch up. What the check behind DOES do is reassures me that he didn't float your ch/R with a hand like AK or other non-paired hands, as that would probably bet/fold the turn.
As a result, on the river, his entire range has at least a boat, the worst of which is 4's full of 8's (for 88). His bet on the river, however, indicates he is trying to get VALUE, so unless he thinks you would ch/R this dry flop with a pair under top pair, he should NOT be vbetting Tx (or 56/88/99) but instead checking behind. Also, since the river leaves only the 4h unaccounted for and the 5h is on the board, we can remove 54s from his range.
Therefore, after his river bet, his worst hand is JJ for 4's full of J's and his best hand would be T's full of 4's.
So for a summary: All the hands he calls with on this dry flop are pairs+ due to our polarizing ch/R. This is reinforced by his turn check behind. Since his river bet has to be for value (his entire range is boats) and we will only call with a boat, his boat must beat at least 1 boat in our range (Tx). Therefore his range is JJ+/55/TT.
on the 852dd Tss 5 board with A6s, would you vbet the river if it was the Ad? We beat a good portion of his range, but since we're talking about bluffing J/Q/K's on the river, it would seem we may only get called by better (especially when the flop flush draw hits). What about an offsuit A? If we decide checking is best and he bets, can we call profitably (lets say 2/3 or 1/2 pot size)?
i would vbet in both cases. def not a spot where you get called alot but worse, but should be slightly +ev
i would vbet in both cases. def not a spot where you get called alot but worse, but should be slightly +ev
ok. That was my thought at first, but when you talked about bluffing overcards, I thought it was a good idea to double check.
Therefore, after his river bet, his worst hand is JJ for 4's full of J's and his best hand would be T's full of 4's.
I have to disagree with you here: He isn't the biggest nit in the world and we weren't supplied with any specific reads on our villain so I think that 9T-ATs are definitely in his opening range from MP preflop. I don't see how you can eliminate 66-99 from his range here as they all have 2nd top pair here, and as we have shown to be super polarized between the nuts and total air, once we check the turn AND the river his value range opens up considerably in my opinion, making a thin value bet with a small boat possible, and a pure value bet with a strong made hand like the ones you suggested also an option. Also if we checkraised with a T ourselves he is now effectively chopping with any T in his hand, making a bet/fold line if he has any 5x/Tx perfectly viable for him as well.
One more thought: His bet sizing is interesting here because I think with JJ+ he would almost bomb this river hoping to get called by Tx, because unless we are getting super tricky with an overpair ourselves we just look so weak for him not to bet big with strong boats, and small with weak boats. He bets only slightly over half pot making it look like thin value to me. If he wanted to get paid off by a weaker boat (Tx or 5x) He would bet more? Yeah this makes him super exploitable in a vacuum, but how often does this spot turn up to make bombing the river with a strong boat not profitable when we put our opponent on a weaker one?
Quiz
Villians range: 55+, T9s, JTs, QT, KT, AT, and maybe a hand like KQ that wants you to fold A-high, but this happens not so often
I have to disagree with you here: He isn't the biggest nit in the world and we weren't supplied with any specific reads on our villain so I think that 9T-ATs are definitely in his opening range from MP preflop. I don't see how you can eliminate 66-99 from his range here as they all have 2nd top pair here, and as we have shown to be super polarized between the nuts and total air, once we check the turn AND the river his value range opens up considerably in my opinion, making a thin value bet with a small boat possible, and a pure value bet with a strong made hand like the ones you suggested also an option. Also if we check raised with a T ourselves he is now effectively chopping with any T in his hand, making a bet/fold line if he has any 5x/Tx perfectly viable for him as well.
One more thought: His bet sizing is interesting here because I think with JJ+ he would almost bomb this river hoping to get called by Tx, because unless we are getting super tricky with an overpair ourselves we just look so weak for him not to bet big with strong boats, and small with weak boats. He bets only slightly over half pot making it look like thin value to me. If he wanted to get paid off by a weaker boat (Tx or 5x) He would bet more? Yeah this makes him super exploitable in a vacuum, but how often does this spot turn up to make bombing the river with a strong boat not profitable when we put our opponent on a weaker one?
I see what you're saying, and it's obv villain dependent one way or another (we don't know what level he's thinking on) but imo, after calling a polarizing ch/R on the flop and checking back the turn, as a result of the river card, villain should either be bluff catching the river or eeking out value with what is basically the nuts. While 66-99 could be in his range after the turn, he should never expect to get called by worse (since our ch/R was polarized), and thus should be checking behind (bluff catching). If it wasn't for the trips on the board, (but instead was 2 pair, for instance), His small bet size COULD indicate something trying to push us off a chop, but according to Zebo, no one folds a full house, so unless we've got some weak-tight image or villain has an incredibly good read to know we can never have JJ+ here, JJ is the weakest hand he SHOULD be value betting. Your logic regarding pushing us off a chop MAY be valid if we can put a hand like AK in villain's range who is trying to push us off Ax, but this would require that villain checks back the turn with no pair/no draw AND pegs us for having no pair on the river (which we certainly can't call with).
His small bet size is most likely indicative of what he reads OUR hand to be--a non-nut full house that didn't vbet the turn and improved to the second best hand on the river and can't fold due to boating up.
Gooooood Serieeeeees!!!
jk3a, I like your HUD,can i try it ? Were can i get it?
Quiz:
like u said u like the short answers:
The flop call and turn cb looks like he does it for pc or too hit his draw with 67 but when u check the river again i think he would vb with J10+; 1010+, 55,
sometimes a missed draw like 67 to bluff u off
But most times all valuehands every 10 like J10+; and of course 1010+, 55,(A4s if he raise this in mp = unlikely)
i dont think he bet 66-99 (maaaybe some good regs bet 99 here)
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