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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by jk3a (Mid Stakes)

How about 10 paragraphs?

Quiz question: our river range is most of 22-99, some TT, a bit of AQ that didn't 3bet, a bit of KQ that got stubborn on the flop, some lower suited queens that had a backdoor flush draw on the flop. It looks like the river is a very good card for villain to continue to bluff so we're probably not folding all our pocket pairs or our Qx, so against a calling range of TdTh,99-66,22,AhQh,QTs+,KQs TT is the lowest value hand, but it might vary from player to player.

Re: quiz - the HUD must be from another table, because the names are all wrong, so we have to treat villain as a complete unknown. Also, I may be way off. I'm trying to get better and hand-reading and thinking through hands, but there are times I overthink, and some things I just miss. So, here goes...

Assuming villain is reasonably competent, his range is probably mid pairs and above, any big cards, and any broadway, with some suited connectors and suited aces thrown in: 66+, A8s+, ATo+, KT+, QT+, JT, T9s, 98s.

The most telling thing about jk3a's perceived calling range I think is that he didn't 3-bet out of the big blind. That makes his hand look very strong or moderately weak, a range of something like: AA, KK, 99, 88, 77, 66, AJ, ATs, KQ, QJs, JTs, T9s.

On the flop, we check-call a pretty dry board, indicating some strength, and probably shaving off the bottom of our range - T9s, JTs, QJs probably don't check-call on that board, but knowing that villain's appropriate c-bet range is very wide, the rest of our range is a pretty easy call.

On the turn, we again check call on a Q, keeping KQ in our range, but probably getting rid of AJs and ATs (even the nut-flush draw varieties, as we would most likely not just check-call). Given that a flush draw popped up, we may not check, or may at least CR our over-pairs, removing AA and KK from our range. So, heading to the river, our range looks like 99 (6 combos), 88 (6 combos), 77 (6 combos), 66 (3 combos), and KQ (5 combos).

As villain, knowing jk3a would be aware that the turn and river hit a good chunk of our range, I don't think we can expect a call from 99, 88, or 77. Thus, I think the worst hand villain should be value betting here is AA. Everything else he should just check behind (except for his air, which he should obviously shove).

Quiz:
I am working off the assumption when talking about what range we should be betting the river - that you are asking what range should we be shoving vs jk3a a strong winning player and hand reader.

I think that whilst we may not be absolutely sure of jk3a proclivity to flat strong hands OOP - I think we should assume that jk3a strong pairs and strong aces will 3-bet most times.

If that is true - then jk3a c/c range for the flop whilst it might have some Ace high floats OOP - I think outside of 66 and quads - the top of jk3a range will be TT maaaaaaaybe JJ. We should not expect A3s because I think it might form a part of jk 3-bet bluff range PF.

So given that there are not many floats that contain a Q or K once we hit the river - given that KQ has either 3-bet PF or prolly does not float OOP the flop and AQ,AK are very likely 3-bet PF.
Combine this with the Q and then K being the perfect range to barrell with our air - I think we can expect if we have an aggressive image with only shallow stacks to expect to be bluff catched on a dry flop with two perfect barrell cards atonne.

I would suggest that JJ = AQ or AK in terms of relative hand strength.
So with 1 combo of 33, 3 combos of 66 and say the 6 combos of JJ ( maybe less if we believe sometimes jk3a 3bets them.
Counterbalanced by maybe 55 & 77-99 with 6 combos of each - as the core part of jk3a bluff catching range.
I think TT is the worst hand we can 3-barrell for value. Particularly with dead money already in the pot.

My final thought is this - I believe that if we are to go for 3-sts with our range we should be shoving our entire range. Mainly because I think that jk3a would understand that his range looks to be dominanted by bluff catchers - thus we can value bet alot thinner.
The more passive we are in general - the strength of jk3as turn c/c range increases dramaitcally - the more inclined we should be to check behind.

The turn call should raise alarms for NikolasDLP given his tight image. jk3a has at least a Q here-- like an AQ that peeled the flop. jk3a isn't calling a river bet with JJ or TT.

The worst hand jk3a is calling on the river is AQ. If Nik has a Q he should not value bet because the pot will be chopped at best. Nik should only value bet K+.

Time Link to 00:22:01

What's our play on the river if it's a low spade? Are we only getting called by a flush? what about Qs or Ks where 2 pair is more common? Are there enough FD's in his range on the river to forgo value? The question is: is he ever vbetting worse, and is does he have any possible bluffs in his range (unlikely). Would you expect most players to check behind with made hands that we beat? What about something like AQo on the Qs or KJs on the Ks (no Flush)?

What's our play on the river if it's a low spade? Are we only getting called by a flush? what about Qs or Ks where 2 pair is more common? Are there enough FD's in his range on the river to forgo value? The question is: is he ever vbetting worse, and is does he have any possible bluffs in his range (unlikely). Would you expect most players to check behind with made hands that we beat? What about something like AQo on the Qs or KJs on the Ks (no Flush)?

value shoving any river

several better hands will check behind that might call a bet. would assume 2 pair+ still bets though

value shoving any river

several |better| hands will check behind that might call a bet. would assume 2 pair+ still bets though

How deep would you have to be to change this to a check? Or does he really have that many worse hands that call (I think you meant worse, not better hands in your post, right?)

How deep would you have to be to change this to a check? Or does he really have that many worse hands that call (I think you meant worse, not better hands in your post, right?)

meant better in ref. to him checking behind if we check. I'd value bet any river with any stack. sometimes folding to a raise depending on stacks

Time Link to 00:10:18

what about a call IP with the K9, it's a good hand and his isolatingrange is wide. You keep the fish in and in a 3b pot it's hard to play your hand the times you hit because of the reasons you said on the flop. I think it's better to 3bet worse hands when you do it just to make him fold and I think K9 is strong enough to play vs a wide range and a fish IP. Thoughts on this play?

what about a call IP with the K9, it's a good hand and his isolatingrange is wide. You keep the fish in and in a 3b pot it's hard to play your hand the times you hit because of the reasons you said on the flop. I think it's better to 3bet worse hands when you do it just to make him fold and I think K9 is strong enough to play vs a wide range and a fish IP. Thoughts on this play?

i would call with the suited version

Quiz
JK3:s range on the river: 22, 66-99, 67s, A6s, A2s, QJs, KQ
some a bit less likely since JK3 probably would have 3bet pre or raised some of the times with some of the hands, and even folded.

Villian
Should be worried about JK3 calling range on flop and turn. JK3 will must likely not call a river bet with any worse then a Qx. And there is not many combinations of Qx JK3 can have.

The worst hand the villian should be valuebetting on river is AQ and if he has that, bet smallish to get looked up by QJ, QT, 99-77, and fold to a raise.

Quiz:

Villain's worse hand to value bet: JJ

Why? It's hard for jk3a to have any 2's in his range pre, and even harder for them to still be in his range after c/c'ing twice. The only very strong hands that could have really been played this way are his actual holding, 66 (3 combos), and 22 (1 combo). The rest of jk3a's range looks like 77-TT (24 combos; 18 combos if he is always 3betting TT) and maybe a few 6's such as 56s and 76s, but these are not necessarily in his preflop BB defending range.

It's also very rare for jk3a to have any Q's or K's in his range. However, because we (cutoff) can have Q's and K's in our range, it's difficult for jk3a to call a 3rd barrel here with the weaker parts of his range, making value betting with TT too thin, as we're then only getting value from 18 combos of 77-99, and these hands are folding to the river bet a significant portion of the time.

When we value bet JJ here, I think we're getting called by at least 4 out of the 24 combos of 77-TT to balance for the times when jk3a has a monster.

Quiz:

Villain's worse hand to value bet: JJ

Why? It's hard for jk3a to have any 2's in his range pre, and even harder for them to still be in his range after c/c'ing twice. The only very strong hands that could have really been played this way are his actual holding, 66 (3 combos), and 22 (1 combo). The rest of jk3a's range looks like 77-TT (24 combos; 18 combos if he is always 3betting TT) and maybe a few 6's such as 56s and 76s, but these are not necessarily in his preflop BB defending range.

It's also very rare for jk3a to have any Q's or K's in his range. However, because we (cutoff) can have Q's and K's in our range, it's difficult for jk3a to call a 3rd barrel here with the weaker parts of his range, making value betting with TT too thin, as we're then only getting value from 18 combos of 77-99, and these hands are folding to the river bet a significant portion of the time.

When we value bet JJ here, I think we're getting called by at least 4 out of the 24 combos of 77-TT to balance for the times when jk3a has a monster.

yeah I think its really close between jj and TT. Glad someone else saw the hand like I did.