jk3a
898 posts
Joined 01/2008
Given this player is quite loose and he going to bet this turn ALOT of the time, with a flush or queen, can we not check raise?
Thanks.
you likely make the most money from his range by firing yourself, plus him checking behind Qx occasionally can be a tragedy
Posted about 3 years ago
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jk3a
898 posts
Joined 01/2008
99 hand
Would it be to spewy to try turning our hand into a bluff on the turn had we come to conclusion that he appears to have some weak-made hand that is unlikely to want to play for stacks ? Or would you need to see this hand and have a note that he makes these small blocker bets with weakmade hands before youd try moving him off anything ? would you do it noteless had you 78?
Turn card is the same , villian bets half pot , c/c ? c/f ?
Turn card is an overcard , villian bets half pot , c/c turn c/f river ?
Like AcesOnfire said i generaly give up in alot of these spots the first time since i just feel il be forced to c/f almost all turns and im really just calling in the hope he checks back the turn and river. Would you say that kind of thought process in itself is very weak-tight and we shouldnt be willing to give up so much just because we fear an action on a later street. Seems to be a thin line betweeen reverse equity and playing to fit or fold.
Lastly what is you adjustment vs this villian now that we seen this hand. I would start c/c and c/f alot more and generaly just cbet hands that can handle a flop raise. So the 99 becomes a c/c now ?
yes, c/r turn could very well be better than folding
typically folding to most turn bets
i would still cbet 99, seems like we can induce bluffs and get called by plenty worse. and like i said earlier, most people rarely follow up often enough to ever b/f the flop
Posted about 3 years ago
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jk3a
898 posts
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Villians shove here with AA - given that the pot is 62 and we have 78 and we are still calling without the correct odds its his best option ? if he was up against Jk3a and would assume you 4b JJ+ maybe TT/AQ making your range floats SC and FDs he should bet smaller ?
def prefer betting closer to 30-50% pot with a hand as strong as AA. checking could also be good if we felt he was floating some
Posted about 3 years ago
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jk3a
898 posts
Joined 01/2008
jk3a
898 posts
Joined 01/2008
I got 2 questions. The quiz from last week, how could we put him on a weak made hand on the turn? From my experience regs usually will check back flop bluff turned marginal hand since betting would be a not bluff not value meaningless bet. How can we eliminate draws from his range that is setting a cheap price. This is very inconsistent from what we saw in week 1 quiz where c/r flop gay bet turn was a draw. Folding 99 to small bet like that is a mistake I think.
AQs hand we flat a 3bet from a 4% 3bettor and flop a NFD 2 over and it was said in the video that AK is small part of his range so not much point in raising the flop. How is that right? If I call 3 bet vs someone like that, the goal would be to bluff him off AK. AK is a big part of his range combinatorically. Also, let's aggro villan's bluff us off the best hand on many turn card in the small amount of time he has a bluff. If any turn K or diamond and villan bets we're in a really hard spot. I think calling vs that villan is marginal at best then not raising the that flop you would lose any positive EV on the call since most of your EV comes from taking the pot away from AK when his range is so tight.
Quiz answer this week, villan has QQ+ with a spade or nut flush every time in his 3 barelling range. Should of folded on the flop.
"setting his price" doesn't really apply in position. I think it's very safe to assume that most wouldn't bet that size with a draw. They simply check or bet bigger.
there's 12 combos of AK, 24 combos of TT+, 9 other combos of AQ, and a few bluffs. plus there's no guarantee that AK folds to a raise. that said, raising is still going to be +ev given our equity but I certainly don't think it's clearly best one way or another.
Posted about 3 years ago
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Keruben
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Steppin Razor
Section 9
2237 posts
Joined 12/2009
Quiz; is it a trick question? The "worst spade" for value would be the 4s, w/As4s but it makes the SF.
I think it all hinges on what he thinks about Tecmo. He is a known decent reg, so he is thinking about Tecmo's hand range.
The only KsX's are KsQx and KsJx. KxQs and QsJs are the only Qs that make sense for Tecmo to have except QsJs. AxQs probably re-raises. AxJs is the only Js Tecmo could have. From there, Tecmo has more hands that could've flopped a flush, but none of those call down, they raise prior to the river.
Post flop, one could make a case that even the As betting for value is pretty slim. Tecmo shouldn't really be calling with KsQx, KsJx, KxQs, or AxJs. In fact, he definitely folds AxJs most of time, when he's not forced to mass table and lose his focus
. KsX and QsX don't even have the TP value that the 3 Ace outs give w/AJ (not that they really count either). And like I said all his flopped flushes with lower cards all raise the flop or turn.
So, the more he can discount Ks/Qs/Js, the less he gets value from. Comes down to what he thinks about Tecmo.
My answer is:
As is the worst
flush that bets for value
While it's possible he thinks Tecmo could have called down light Qs or Js, thus opening the K-high flush betting for value, I don't think it's likely. And who doesn't bet a nut flush?
Posted about 3 years ago
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blah234
2532 posts
Joined 12/2009
"setting his price" doesn't really apply in position. I think it's very safe to assume that most wouldn't bet that size with a draw. They simply check or bet bigger.
there's 12 combos of AK, 24 combos of TT+, 9 other combos of AQ, and a few bluffs. plus there's no guarantee that AK folds to a raise. that said, raising is still going to be +ev given our equity but I certainly don't think it's clearly best one way or another.
setting his price doesn't apply IP totally escaped me when I looked at the hand. Thanks for the response.
For 2nd question, I think you gave him too wide of a value range. AQ+, TT+ is wider than 4% and that doesn't include bluffs. Of course it's a small sample but it can show that the villan is a conservative 3 bettor which should reduce his value or bluff range you assigned and make AK a bigger part of his range. Also, if we raise flop we will jam any turn and AK would fold at some point.
Posted about 3 years ago
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jk3a
898 posts
Joined 01/2008
66 on A92 board. From the turn talk to judge we werent planning to do any further betting unless we improved. So this seems like a good spot to check behind. Protection in itself against this guy doesnt seem like reason enough to bet.
all his air has 25%ish equity, and I def don't always shutdown if called, so I think bet is usually going to be better
Posted about 3 years ago
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jk3a
898 posts
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setting his price doesn't apply IP totally escaped me when I looked at the hand. Thanks for the response.
For 2nd question, I think you gave him too wide of a value range. AQ+, TT+ is wider than 4% and that doesn't include bluffs. Of course it's a small sample but it can show that the villan is a conservative 3 bettor which should reduce his value or bluff range you assigned and make AK a bigger part of his range. Also, if we raise flop we will jam any turn and AK would fold at some point.
4% is his overall 3bet, it's pretty same to assume that he 3bets more often than that in a steal situation
Posted about 3 years ago
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TecmoSuperBowl
Tribe Leader
5589 posts
Joined 01/2009
Tecmo - you should consider droping the number of tables you are playing. You aren't having/taking the time,in game, to think through the hands. You are trying to grind hands and learn the game at the same time and that's hard to do.
I agree, but unfortunately I have to get volume in.
Posted about 3 years ago
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Petro
103 posts
Joined 03/2007
I'm a limit player, but I wanted to chime in and thank you for the nugget of knowledge about how when regulars take weird lines, it's almost always for value. Reflecting upon that, I think that's very wise, even in limit.
Posted about 3 years ago
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SpewKid
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erby
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Joined 01/2009
I'm sure you probably already noticed, but on the review of the quiz hand the stats got screwed up when you switched hands quickly (he's a 19/17 with a CB of 80% over 94 hands, not 22/16 with CB of 50% over 150 or so).
Doesn't make that much difference I guess in the rational you discussed, so no big deal.
Posted almost 3 years ago
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jk3a
898 posts
Joined 01/2008