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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by jk3a (Mid Stakes)

PF
Blind vs Blind
23/20 Steal 35 vs
19/17 Steal 20 3b 16?

PF Range
Tom's range is Extremely wide - Stealing SB when folded to are traditionally the weakest range of regulars. Given he is playing likely another regular
(a) Stats : 19/17
(b) Full Buyin
(c) SN tell: ReadRoll
When villian does not 3-bet a wide steal range IP BVB and villian is TAG regular - we know his range is not wide and is mainly composed of holdings that play well IP and in better in single raised pots than 3bet pots.
Medium and low PPs capped at 99 and TT at the most.
Medium and low SCx and One gappers maybe even some two gappers prolly capped at QJs.

Thus Tom's
PF range can be as wide as 60% of hands
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,95s+,84s+,73s+,64s+,54s,A2o+,K2o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T7o+,97o+,86o+,76o

Villians range is however quite defined imo.
99-22,Q9s+,J8s+,T7s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54s,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o,98o,87o,76o

FLOP
J65 rainbow

On the assumption that both players can read boards well: I think the following is taking place.
Hero will c-bet this flop all the time HU PFR and dry board against a capped range. Tom like alot of SSNL players prolly c-bets too much but here is a very appropriate.
Villian is aware that a TAG regular range is widest SB steal vs BB and that J65 is a very dry board and that Tom will c-bet ~100% of the time.
So villian raises his air and draws here 100% of the time here because with a range of anywhere upto 60% of all hands in tom's range and a dry board - villian raising everytime will show an immediate profit.
Now given it is SSNL - villian prolly does not get played back at with Hero's air enough of the time - so villian can raise and fold to bet/3bet line with confidence.

I do not expect villian to be raising very many pairs here. For these reasons.
(a) It is a small pot on a dry board - so I do not think Tom will likely just bomb away with medium strength hands or air very often. Because Tom cannot expect too many cards to be good barrelling cards, he cannot represent too many strong holdings and it is hard to have any bluff leverage OOP in a single raised pot. Which means that villian can expect to get to showdown with his bluff catchers - thus the need to protect his hand by raising is alot less likely.
(b) 19/17 - do not value bet thinly enough and bluff often enough to expect to play for stacks with QJ type hands - so they tend not to think that any worse will play for stacks vs regulars. Thus they do not tend to raise QJ. A kind of chicken/egg problem but the reality nonetheless.
(c) PF action has taken out most of his likely range of Overpairs and TPTK TP2K holdings that might raise/call or raise - barrell for value.

So then we are left with value holdings of 2pr and sets.
(a) I do not think J6s and J5s are in his range given they prolly constitute the core part of his bluff 3-bet IP range.
(b) It might be that he raises 65s, 55, 66 (JJ is not there because he 3-bet pre) - if there is a levelling aggro dynamic or Tom has a habit of 3-bet bluffing his air or responding badly to aggression. But not know that - we can assume that he prolly does not do that.
(c) It is pretty obvious on a board where you crush vs a wide range - villian wants Hero to catch something - so why blow him off the hand.

If any 2pr hand does this it is 65s which is only 4 combos.

So I think his range is air and draws.

Turn - our read is confirmed where he bets small on the turn.
Now here is the thing.
A good portion of his air may have like a bd strd bdfd with a ten in it.
So some of the time we should be careful when seeing this bet.
Sometimes its Tx that does not feel it can bet too large on the turn but does not want to check the turn and bluff catch a river lead from Hero.
The bet size tells us another thing.
If hero calls
Pot size will be $114 or 57bb with effective stacks of 72bb.
This allows villian to have a river bluff shove for more than a pot size bet. Given he cannot raise flop and check turn then shove river and have any credibility with his line - he bets the turn to look like he is still strong but keeps the pots size small enough so he can shove the river with a big bet.

If he had a 2pr+ hand on the flop I think A TAG regular would manage SPR better for the river.

So I think he has equity in draws either from the flop or picked up more on the turn maybe a pair T.

So final range is his PF range absent 2pr+ Maybe one combo of 56s. Absent all his one pair hands except some Tx and all his draws and his air is anything left over.
Tx will take showdown by checking back river cause our holding with bet/call flop c/c turn check river looks like Jx and bluff catchers, busted draws giving up.
Draws that missed will shove.
Air will shove.
So my plan is c/c turn and c/c any river but not liking it on 8s,7s and 4s. ** but not sure if this is a leak of mine.

Final range for Villian: QTs-Q9s,J9s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,6h5h,QTo-Q9o,T9o,98o,87o

Turn - our read is confirmed where he bets small on the turn.
Now here is the thing.
A good portion of his air may have like a bd strd bdfd with a ten in it.
So some of the time we should be careful when seeing this bet.
Sometimes its Tx that does not feel it can bet too large on the turn but does not want to check the turn and bluff catch a river lead from Hero.
The bet size tells us another thing.

Final range for Villian: QTs-Q9s,J9s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,6h5h,QTo-Q9o,T9o,98o,87o


I am not complaining Jk3a - but I think my range and reasoning is correct.

I think his medium strength hands and weak top pairs call on the flop and do not raise.
Given the lack of 3bet pre - I do not think he has many top pairs.

I think the turn bet size is Tx a ton because his bet size indicates he is confused - but given there is so much air on the flop - this confusion is Tx rather than Jx due to the fact that our bet/call on the flop looks alot like Jx.

At the turn I think I have most of the Tx that he can have in his range in my assigned range.

I mean maybe there are alot of things in my answer that were wrong or I was right for the wrong reasons.

I dunno but I was not suprise to see Tx appear when we get to showdown.

Can you clarify - how I was wrong?

100NL 6M - I find can be spewey with air bluffs - but really I am not seeing Jx always raising I do not think they are always aggressive with like J9 or JT in this spot. I assume I am just wrong on this.

What you seem to be saying is that on boards like this:
Regulars only ever just bluff the flop then give up in position?
Is that where I am wrong?

Can both be true where they play Jx quite strongly on dry boards but always give up on air bluffs?

Turn - our read is confirmed where he bets small on the turn.
Now here is the thing.
A good portion of his air may have like a bd strd bdfd with a ten in it.
So some of the time we should be careful when seeing this bet.
Sometimes its Tx that does not feel it can bet too large on the turn but does not want to check the turn and bluff catch a river lead from Hero.
The bet size tells us another thing.

Final range for Villian: QTs-Q9s,J9s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,6h5h,QTo-Q9o,T9o,98o,87o


I am not complaining Jk3a - but I think my range and reasoning is correct.

I think his medium strength hands and weak top pairs call on the flop and do not raise.
Given the lack of 3bet pre - I do not think he has many top pairs.

I think the turn bet size is Tx a ton because his bet size indicates he is confused - but given there is so much air on the flop - this confusion is Tx rather than Jx due to the fact that our bet/call on the flop looks alot like Jx.

At the turn I think I have most of the Tx that he can have in his range in my assigned range.

I mean maybe there are alot of things in my answer that were wrong or I was right for the wrong reasons.

I dunno but I was not suprise to see Tx appear when we get to showdown.

Can you clarify - how I was wrong?

sorry, I think villain is almost never semibluffing with that turn size and your range includes a number of semibluffs

100NL 6M - I find can be spewey with air bluffs - but really I am not seeing Jx always raising I do not think they are always aggressive with like J9 or JT in this spot. I assume I am just wrong on this.

What you seem to be saying is that on boards like this:
Regulars only ever just bluff the flop then give up in position?
Is that where I am wrong?

Can both be true where they play Jx quite strongly on dry boards but always give up on air bluffs?

I assume that a large portion of their flop raising ranges are air and that they call with Jx most of the time.

Time Link to 00:25:06

Thanks again for the great series guys, so much great thought process in these hands.

I just wanted to point out that if we do the math for this call given the range you plug into pokerstove, we have -EV of ~$5. So, even with QT as 1/4 of his range we're still losing money.

Thanks again for the great series guys, so much great thought process in these hands.

I just wanted to point out that if we do the math for this call given the range you plug into pokerstove, we have -EV of ~$5. So, even with QT as 1/4 of his range we're still losing money.

ty for doing the math

100NL

Time Link to 00:08:26

shortly @ the quiz from vid 2:

He has only JJ in hisrange when
-either tom is opening from UTG a decent amount (17%+) with combination that tom has a huge leak by rarely (even in this spot) folding to 3bets -> then he could 3bet/fold pre fior Value vs. Tom`s callingrange
- or he is bad and unthinking + do not plan well.

When these 2 points are not the case, imo he has almost never JJ here and only air (AK, bluff3bets with for instance small suited Aces).
-> hence my betsize would be even mire ridiciolous than yours , something between 10-15$, to increase a litte bit the probability of curiositycalls, tiltcalls and spazz - not too mention that the probability for this reactions is still not too high...

Time Link to 00:20:03

I think call on river is ok, but I think it is closer - reason: I also see like jk3a lots of 5x-combos in his turncheckback-range + idk, but many fishes sre punding on weakness on the turn and would just bet their FDs when you check OOP.

The thought with the timeing (quick actions could induce something) is great^^

Time Link to 00:33:00

Nice thoughts:

I agree that call Turn - fold river is possible here, though it is close.
But ok, odds are not bad + our perceived range includes also hands like 9x and some floats ourselves, so he could 2ndbarell here in fact as a bluff with some potEQ (backdoorFDs, KQ, T8s....)

2 general questions:
1.) Are we on the turn in your opinion at the top of our possible range here , or more at the middle? (99, sometimes JJ, J9s and sometimes trapped QQ+, we could also have from time to time).

2.) When you call here turn as a bluffcatcher, with the intention o confident fodl river, I guess we also had to call then for instance, 9x (b/c we not assume that he would 2ndbarell so large a weaker Jx-hand)?
And is here KJ on the turn better than AJ or worse to call turn - fold river?
I mean, on the one side KJ for instance reduce the likelihood that he hold a possible semibluff with let`s say KTs, KQ.
On the other side, he we then should have more EQ on the turn (less lkely that he improves on river with mentioned hands).

note: Another great part - just wonderful, fantastic series.
Abd thank you exspecially very much that you answering so patient to all my and tohers questions

Nice thoughts:

I agree that call Turn - fold river is possible here, though it is close.
But ok, odds are not bad + our perceived range includes also hands like 9x and some floats ourselves, so he could 2ndbarell here in fact as a bluff with some potEQ (backdoorFDs, KQ, T8s....)

2 general questions:
1.) Are we on the turn in your opinion at the top of our possible range here , or more at the middle? (99, sometimes JJ, J9s and sometimes trapped QQ+, we could also have from time to time).

2.) When you call here turn as a bluffcatcher, with the intention o confident fodl river, I guess we also had to call then for instance, 9x (b/c we not assume that he would 2ndbarell so large a weaker Jx-hand)?
And is here KJ on the turn better than AJ or worse to call turn - fold river?
I mean, on the one side KJ for instance reduce the likelihood that he hold a possible semibluff with let`s say KTs, KQ.
On the other side, he we then should have more EQ on the turn (less lkely that he improves on river with mentioned hands).

note: Another great part - just wonderful, fantastic series.
Abd thank you exspecially very much that you answering so patient to all my and tohers questions

def not top of range

KJ/AJ very similar to me, diff than 9x

def not top of range

KJ/AJ very similar to me, diff than 9x

Ok, thank you^^

What would be top of your range here? (only sets and trapped QQ+, I guess + J9s)?

and I guess my tgoughts why KJ could be maybe here different from AJ is not so important here?

Time Link to 00:47:04

You said that when you would expect here a high Blufffreq. of Villain, you would prefer call Flop - Call AI Turn.
Did you maybe not notice the SPR?
When you call here only on the flop, Villain will only have about 1/3-Potsize left on turn - hence can we rly expect him to continue a bluff on turn?
When not, then Shove flop would be theoretically even vs. air better b/c you can make some PotEQ of Vilalin folding...

You said that when you would expect here a high Blufffreq. of Villain, you would prefer call Flop - Call AI Turn.
Did you maybe not notice the SPR?
When you call here only on the flop, Villain will only have about 1/3-Potsize left on turn - hence can we rly expect him to continue a bluff on turn?
When not, then Shove flop would be theoretically even vs. air better b/c you can make some PotEQ of Vilalin folding...

it's a bit closer to 1/2 pot if my math is good, but yes, they can/will bluff for that small

it's a bit closer to 1/2 pot if my math is good, but yes, they can/will bluff for that small

he would have 57$ left in a 153$-Pot - but all right, when you think he can continue bluffing, then of course call flop is better.

Thx so far