Blind vs Blind
23/20 Steal 35 vs
19/17 Steal 20 3b 16?
Tom's range is Extremely wide - Stealing SB when folded to are traditionally the weakest range of regulars. Given he is playing likely another regular
(a) Stats : 19/17
(b) Full Buyin
(c) SN tell: ReadRoll
When villian does not 3-bet a wide steal range IP BVB and villian is TAG regular - we know his range is not wide and is mainly composed of holdings that play well IP and in better in single raised pots than 3bet pots.
Medium and low PPs capped at 99 and TT at the most.
Medium and low SCx and One gappers maybe even some two gappers prolly capped at QJs.
PF range can be as wide as 60% of hands
Villians range is however quite defined imo.
On the assumption that both players can read boards well: I think the following is taking place.
Hero will c-bet this flop all the time HU PFR and dry board against a capped range. Tom like alot of SSNL players prolly c-bets too much but here is a very appropriate.
Villian is aware that a TAG regular range is widest SB steal vs BB and that J65 is a very dry board and that Tom will c-bet ~100% of the time.
So villian raises his air and draws here 100% of the time here because with a range of anywhere upto 60% of all hands in tom's range and a dry board - villian raising everytime will show an immediate profit.
Now given it is SSNL - villian prolly does not get played back at with Hero's air enough of the time - so villian can raise and fold to bet/3bet line with confidence.
I do not expect villian to be raising very many pairs here. For these reasons.
(a) It is a small pot on a dry board - so I do not think Tom will likely just bomb away with medium strength hands or air very often. Because Tom cannot expect too many cards to be good barrelling cards, he cannot represent too many strong holdings and it is hard to have any bluff leverage OOP in a single raised pot. Which means that villian can expect to get to showdown with his bluff catchers - thus the need to protect his hand by raising is alot less likely.
(b) 19/17 - do not value bet thinly enough and bluff often enough to expect to play for stacks with QJ type hands - so they tend not to think that any worse will play for stacks vs regulars. Thus they do not tend to raise QJ. A kind of chicken/egg problem but the reality nonetheless.
(c) PF action has taken out most of his likely range of Overpairs and TPTK TP2K holdings that might raise/call or raise - barrell for value.
So then we are left with value holdings of 2pr and sets.
(a) I do not think J6s and J5s are in his range given they prolly constitute the core part of his bluff 3-bet IP range.
(b) It might be that he raises 65s, 55, 66 (JJ is not there because he 3-bet pre) - if there is a levelling aggro dynamic or Tom has a habit of 3-bet bluffing his air or responding badly to aggression. But not know that - we can assume that he prolly does not do that.
(c) It is pretty obvious on a board where you crush vs a wide range - villian wants Hero to catch something - so why blow him off the hand.
If any 2pr hand does this it is 65s which is only 4 combos.
So I think his range is air and draws.
Turn - our read is confirmed where he bets small on the turn.
Now here is the thing.
A good portion of his air may have like a bd strd bdfd with a ten in it.
So some of the time we should be careful when seeing this bet.
Sometimes its Tx that does not feel it can bet too large on the turn but does not want to check the turn and bluff catch a river lead from Hero.
The bet size tells us another thing.
If hero calls
Pot size will be $114 or 57bb with effective stacks of 72bb.
This allows villian to have a river bluff shove for more than a pot size bet. Given he cannot raise flop and check turn then shove river and have any credibility with his line - he bets the turn to look like he is still strong but keeps the pots size small enough so he can shove the river with a big bet.
If he had a 2pr+ hand on the flop I think A TAG regular would manage SPR better for the river.
So I think he has equity in draws either from the flop or picked up more on the turn maybe a pair T.
So final range is his PF range absent 2pr+ Maybe one combo of 56s. Absent all his one pair hands except some Tx and all his draws and his air is anything left over.
Tx will take showdown by checking back river cause our holding with bet/call flop c/c turn check river looks like Jx and bluff catchers, busted draws giving up.
Draws that missed will shove.
Air will shove.
So my plan is c/c turn and c/c any river but not liking it on 8s,7s and 4s. ** but not sure if this is a leak of mine.
Final range for Villian: QTs-Q9s,J9s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,6h5h,QTo-Q9o,T9o,98o,87o