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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by jk3a (Mid Stakes)

Quiz answer:

After he raises us on the flop, I'd estimate his range to be sets, 65s, 87s, possibly a 79s/89s (based on his stats it's unlikely that he is playing the offsuit variants of these hands), I think that it is pretty unlikely that he would raise a naked top pair hand here very often. His 3bet% probably has him 3betting some of the better Jx hands preflop esp, since it's blind vs blind. He of course will have a good amount of air, probably some weaker broadwayish hands like KTo, QTo, Q9s, and some Ax hands.

When he bets the turn so small it looks like he is either setting himself a cheap price with a semibluff or thinly value betting. So sets and 65 are out. A hand like 87 or 89 makes a lot of sense, a K9/Q9 hand that now turned some more equity fits the bill as well. Given that we have 99, I think 87s is probably his most likely holding.

He may be thinly value betting a Jx hand but as stated before he really shouldn't have that many that he wouldn't 3bet preflop with or flat the flop with. Any Tx hand that bluff raised the flop I feel would check back the turn, any other air hand I feel would follow up the turn larger if he was going to bet again or give up.

quizz : 77- 88 - a6 - at - air

dont ask me why , i dont no !!

PF
Blind vs Blind
23/20 Steal 35 vs
19/17 Steal 20 3b 16?

PF Range
Tom's range is Extremely wide - Stealing SB when folded to are traditionally the weakest range of regulars. Given he is playing likely another regular
(a) Stats : 19/17
(b) Full Buyin
(c) SN tell: ReadRoll
When villian does not 3-bet a wide steal range IP BVB and villian is TAG regular - we know his range is not wide and is mainly composed of holdings that play well IP and in better in single raised pots than 3bet pots.
Medium and low PPs capped at 99 and TT at the most.
Medium and low SCx and One gappers maybe even some two gappers prolly capped at QJs.

Thus Tom's
PF range can be as wide as 60% of hands
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,95s+,84s+,73s+,64s+,54s,A2o+,K2o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T7o+,97o+,86o+,76o

Villians range is however quite defined imo.
99-22,Q9s+,J8s+,T7s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54s,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o,98o,87o,76o

FLOP
J65 rainbow

On the assumption that both players can read boards well: I think the following is taking place.
Hero will c-bet this flop all the time HU PFR and dry board against a capped range. Tom like alot of SSNL players prolly c-bets too much but here is a very appropriate.
Villian is aware that a TAG regular range is widest SB steal vs BB and that J65 is a very dry board and that Tom will c-bet ~100% of the time.
So villian raises his air and draws here 100% of the time here because with a range of anywhere upto 60% of all hands in tom's range and a dry board - villian raising everytime will show an immediate profit.
Now given it is SSNL - villian prolly does not get played back at with Hero's air enough of the time - so villian can raise and fold to bet/3bet line with confidence.

I do not expect villian to be raising very many pairs here. For these reasons.
(a) It is a small pot on a dry board - so I do not think Tom will likely just bomb away with medium strength hands or air very often. Because Tom cannot expect too many cards to be good barrelling cards, he cannot represent too many strong holdings and it is hard to have any bluff leverage OOP in a single raised pot. Which means that villian can expect to get to showdown with his bluff catchers - thus the need to protect his hand by raising is alot less likely.
(b) 19/17 - do not value bet thinly enough and bluff often enough to expect to play for stacks with QJ type hands - so they tend not to think that any worse will play for stacks vs regulars. Thus they do not tend to raise QJ. A kind of chicken/egg problem but the reality nonetheless.
(c) PF action has taken out most of his likely range of Overpairs and TPTK TP2K holdings that might raise/call or raise - barrell for value.

So then we are left with value holdings of 2pr and sets.
(a) I do not think J6s and J5s are in his range given they prolly constitute the core part of his bluff 3-bet IP range.
(b) It might be that he raises 65s, 55, 66 (JJ is not there because he 3-bet pre) - if there is a levelling aggro dynamic or Tom has a habit of 3-bet bluffing his air or responding badly to aggression. But not know that - we can assume that he prolly does not do that.
(c) It is pretty obvious on a board where you crush vs a wide range - villian wants Hero to catch something - so why blow him off the hand.

If any 2pr hand does this it is 65s which is only 4 combos.

So I think his range is air and draws.

Turn - our read is confirmed where he bets small on the turn.
Now here is the thing.
A good portion of his air may have like a bd strd bdfd with a ten in it.
So some of the time we should be careful when seeing this bet.
Sometimes its Tx that does not feel it can bet too large on the turn but does not want to check the turn and bluff catch a river lead from Hero.
The bet size tells us another thing.
If hero calls
Pot size will be $114 or 57bb with effective stacks of 72bb.
This allows villian to have a river bluff shove for more than a pot size bet. Given he cannot raise flop and check turn then shove river and have any credibility with his line - he bets the turn to look like he is still strong but keeps the pots size small enough so he can shove the river with a big bet.

If he had a 2pr+ hand on the flop I think A TAG regular would manage SPR better for the river.

So I think he has equity in draws either from the flop or picked up more on the turn maybe a pair T.

So final range is his PF range absent 2pr+ Maybe one combo of 56s. Absent all his one pair hands except some Tx and all his draws and his air is anything left over.
Tx will take showdown by checking back river cause our holding with bet/call flop c/c turn check river looks like Jx and bluff catchers, busted draws giving up.
Draws that missed will shove.
Air will shove.
So my plan is c/c turn and c/c any river but not liking it on 8s,7s and 4s. ** but not sure if this is a leak of mine.

Final range for Villian: QTs-Q9s,J9s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,6h5h,QTo-Q9o,T9o,98o,87o

Quiz:

Only hand that makes sense to me is J10 - nope this isn't a range but he isn't bluffing here and is more likely looking to induce action. Its unlikely he raises the flop with a set. If he has a worse J than AJ I don't think he bets 1/3 pot. He either checks behind to control pot or makes a more standard 55-60%pot value bet. Looks like he is trying to give you perceived fold equity to make a bluff.

quiz

villan has a set with 66 or 55.

his flat pre, smallpp makes sense

his flop raise size to a little over 2.5x, consistent with a value size, not a snap 2x bluff size, he has thoughth it out and thinks this is best for value

his turn bet is small, but its enought to create a river bet which if not effective stack sized is close enough, he really wants a call, to build a pot and to not blow you off a big pair. he is not trying to get you to fold, he is trying to get you to call to my mind.

his turn sizing does invite you to call with broadway draws, but i just feel he already made the decision that he is willing to take that chance with his set, and isnt folding regardless, and he may already have discounted un.paired broadways from your range given your betting and calling, he most likely thinks correctly your drawing to two outs.

Hi,

Quiz Answer:
Villian is a reg with 19/17 and 3b 16%. Well we dont now how much he´s 3b in the BB (espacially vs a SB Openraise).
Most time villian will raise hands like A10s, AJ+; 1010+. Some regs on nl 200 with 16% 3b will reraise 22+ against a openraise from sb. Like i said most time villian would 3b JJ+ so this kind of hands are unlikely

Flop: range could be a set 55, 66, 56s a pure bluff, maybe a smaller pair 77,88 were he want to figuere out were he stands and could be a st8draw with 78s, 78o, 89 (=unlikely because we block two 99).

I dont think that villian will raise AJ, QJ, J10 on the flop so often because with this hands, he is in a way ahead/way behind situation. Next point is that the board is dry (okay one str8draw) and he is in position.

Turn: when he 1/3 pet the turn. It could be J10 but like i said i dont really think he will raised it in most of the time. So this hand is rarely.

Sets are still in his range. This bet could be also 56s were he dont want to c/c because of the guessing thing.
In my opion we can not full elaminate a draw with 78 were he dont want to c/f. From the stats he should be a thinking player. The board was very dry so when hero call the raise, villian has to give hero no floats or many drawing hands. With this betsize he doesnt create much fold equity. It seems that 1. he wants to get a call or 2. he wants to see a cheap river.

In my opion he´s range is: sets 55; 66; 1010;56, and somethimes a draw with 78.

Quiz answer

I think his flop-raise is rather wide, yet it´s totally polarized between nut-type hands (namely 66, 55) and air. It´s BvB and Tom´s perceived range on this particular flop is very weak, which gives Villain a broad bluffing-range in combination with some rare monster-hands.

I doubt that any hands with showdown-value like 77-99, AT, Jx (JT included!) would ever raise this flop in position.

So, his small turnbet totally confirms my assumption about his range - and everything I said still holds up. His range is divided into complete air (maybe as good as a gutter) and monster-hands that don´t want to lose hands like JT.

Said this, I think we stick to our plan and call again.

Quiz answer:

Preflop:
I'd expect BB's range to be rather wide.

77-22,A9s-A2s,KTs-K8s,QTs-Q9s,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,54s,AJo-A9o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo.

Flop:
The board is dry and good for the BB to float with some many middling cards in his range. When he raises, his range is some monsters, value hands, and weaker draws. Because it's SB vs BB, I'll assume that BB is capable of raising here with some top pair hands for value.

77,55,A6s,97s+,8c7c,8d7d,65s,AJo,KJo+,QJo,JTo

Turn:

Weird bet size - doesn't set up getting stacks in. I have to eliminate the top of BB's range because Tom should have a tight range with maybe some A high type hands sprinkled in after calling the flop, plus blind vs blind, villain should expect to get more value with monsters against all the Jx hands in Tom's range. (This logic is a combo of people don't fold top pair blind vs blind, and I think Tom would bet/call AK on the flop.) I'll leave some combos of JT in BB's range because really the only draw Tom can have here is if he called the flop with 87s. Other than that, it looks like villain is making a thin value bet or a small bluff to fold out high cards or middle pocket pairs.

BB turn range - 98s,8c7c,8d7d,KQo,QJo,JTo

what specific part(s) of the explanation did you disagree with?

Isn't the % of the time he calls either bet size relatively similar?

Isn't the % of the time he calls either bet size relatively similar?

wouldn't think so

Watched it

It would be cool if you could tell more about SS NL leaks in general. Not only "Tom you did good/bad in this hand" but also this is a spot where a lot of players do this and this is bad because. Also I've got a question since we mention about exploiting/being exploited: if you see that a guy cbets 80% flop and only 30% turn and always folds if he didn't double barrel - what is your plan - play him almost every flop in position and always float until he notices / leaves the table from being frustrated? Or tone down a little so he won't notice it that fast?

Watched it

It would be cool if you could tell more about SS NL leaks in general. Not only "Tom you did good/bad in this hand" but also this is a spot where a lot of players do this and this is bad because. Also I've got a question since we mention about exploiting/being exploited: if you see that a guy cbets 80% flop and only 30% turn and always folds if he didn't double barrel - what is your plan - play him almost every flop in position and always float until he notices / leaves the table from being frustrated? Or tone down a little so he won't notice it that fast?

most of tom's leaks are very common

generally the best way to exploit someone is to do it in a way that shows a significant profit but never so much that they adjust. against the described villain I'd def float more often than normal.

Quiz answer:

Looks like mostly nuts or air type hands to me.

Prf range: 22-66, A9-A2, K9s-K7s, KTo, QJo-T9o, T8s, 97s, 87s-54s, 86s, 75s.

As others have mentioned, his 3bet is high and he's a reg in a BvB, so the big suiteds raise. And some of the better SCs like T9s or 98s.

Flop range: Hands with a piece that could CR -- 55, 66, 65s, QJo-JTo, T8s, 97s, 87s, 76s.
Hands w/o a piece that could CR -- some of the Ax, so say, A8 and A7, and say K8s, K7s

The flop is dry, BvB, vs an aggro SB, there's a lot that can CR here. Naturally, it's hard to say which parts of the total air actually CR, so the w/o a piece are guesses.
He probably calls the hands like A6 or A5, 75s, or 54s. He doesn't fold to cbets and he can't raise 'em all. Plus people don't really know what to do with hands like those in these situations so they mostly call with them.

Turn: 55, 66, JTo, 6s5s, ~Td8d, 97s, 87s, A8, K7s

I only left one 65 combo from the hit range on the flop only because I think he sometimes bets larger to protect since it's vulnerable to quite a few cards. Same deal with QJo, but I think that is even less likely to bet small.
T8s is the only non-big hand value betting hand I included, and I think it's very rare that it's here. Probably rarer to even be here than 65 betting bigger, so I only gave it one combo. And I tilda'ed it too.
And the GS/air hands are self explanatory. I cut some of the air hands just since he doesn't always follow through, although I think he barrels a lot here.

You didn't ask what to do, but I think it's a call. Not sure I do it though only because the river is going to be hard to play. Sthief talked about fundamentally correct plays not always being best just because the situation gets so difficult to make the correct move the next street and I think this might be one of those.

Looks like I am out on my own on not thinking he would raise his monsters on this board.
I mean maybe I am confusing what he should with what he does.
Or I am flat out wrong.
Or I win the quiz by myself.

Either way I would like jk3a to discuss villians line with nut hands on this baord.....if not in video at least in this thread.

Quiz:
Why do the villian not bet around 35 so that he can get a potsize bet on river? If he was playing a calling station he would certainly do that with a set, but maybe he is afraid the regular in sb will fold to much and wants to entice a call with a slightly smaller bet. So some of his range includes 66 and 55 but not that likely. Both trips and a twopar hand like 65s and JT would probably bet larger to get value from hands like AJ and KJ. I can give him one combo of 65 and one combo of 66 or 55. He could have 77, 88, and take a cheap stab on the turn to make you fold AK or AQ or a par (give him one combo of those). It could be a hand like A6 and A5 for the same reason. Bigger Ax like AT and AJ he probably 3bets pre. KQ and 89 is also a likely holding if you only look on his turn action, but since we have two nines not so likely, and KQ would he also most likely 3bet pre and on the flop only call and not raise. We then have Jx hands left which he can bet for thin value afraid that the hero could have a better hand. KJ, QJ, J8s and one combo of J9 since we have two nines (maybe he would 3bet KJ and QJ pre though). He could also have a hand like 87s or 87o which gives him a oesd. On the turn he could check that hand hoping to hit on river, but he could also do like this and get some more money in if he hits and make the hero fold out many hands that beat him at the moment.
Finally could he have air? Not very likely since most hands he call with pre hits this board in some way. Maybe some Ax hand so I give him two combo of that
Villians range on turn: 87, KJ, QJ, J8s, J9(1), 88 (1) (or 77), 66 (1)(or 55), JT (1) (or 65), A6 (or A5), A7 (1) and A3 (1)