Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

villain 34/29/35 hands
3b: 19
F3bet: 0 (3 samples)

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $4(BB) Replayer
SB ($408)
BB ($594)
UTG ($518)
Hero ($606)
BTN ($400)

Dealt to Hero Q K

UTG raises to $12, Hero calls $12, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($30) 7 A T

UTG checks, Hero bets $20, UTG calls $20

TURN ($70) 7 A T 6

UTG checks, Hero bets $46, UTG raises to $122, Hero ?

When he c/c this flop I put him on a weak ace at best, possibly sth like JJ with a heart so my plan to bet, bet, bet. I don't really expect him to slowplay here ever especially because I have the Kh and there aren't too many good flushes in his range that he could slowplay here.
When he c/r the turn, though, his line looks so weird that I can't see how this could ever be a bluff.

So do you agree that we should only call here? What if he checks a blank river, what if we rivered a Q of clubs?

/edit: I think my turnbet should be a lot bigger

i dont know villain. when he c/c the turn, he is probably just in calldown mood. he looks quite LAGish... c/c flop and c/f would be quite terrible... is he really so bad? if u dont have a nitty image, he prolly doesnt fold to a 3barrel when the river bricks off. thus, a 2 barrel or 3barrel doesnt have much FE, although we also dont need much FE w/ so much equity

of course, we have the best bluffing hand to balance our value range and barreling w/ so much equity cant be bad -- unless villain c/res u.

we have deeper stacks and not much FE w/ a shove, i would just call in position

Actually, after thinking more about this he could be turning a hand like 88 or 99 with a heart into a (semi)bluff and this makes it really interesting imo. If we expect him to bet the river with those we should probably shove the turn. However, I'm not sure if he expects me to call the turn with a naked draw so he has to put me on a hand that is planning on calling down any blank. If that's the case he'll probably c/f the river with 88, 99 and we should just call the turn, take it away on any blank and own him on any flush completing river.

That said, if we river a Q (which is what happened) should we check it back because we are ahead of his bluffs or just bet to fold out the tiny percentage of Ax type hands he took this line with? I think the ev difference between betting and checking is pretty tiny since I never expect him to check a monster on the river.