Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $4(BB) Replayer
Dealt to Hero T K
fold, Hero raises to $12, fold, SB calls $10, fold
FLOP ($28) Q J A
SB checks, Hero bets $22, SB calls $22
TURN ($72) Q J A J
SB checks, Hero bets $50, SB raises to $144
Villain is 21/15 reg 6% 3bet, so he probably not 3betting hands like JQs and AJ vs my CO open.
He has just 5% 3bet vs CO raise. 16% call open @BB
He has like 20% raise Cbet on the flop, but i think he rarely should have some raising range on this flop, probably some of the times will raise 2pair/straight.
I expect him to raise all his value hands on the turn, same as flushdraws.
This turn isn't that good for barelling, but i think he still can raise his flushdraws some % of the time.
I put him on this range
which leads me to the fact i have 44% equity and i have to call the turn.
Once we get to the river, how would you proceed against an unknown.
My thoughts are, that i have boats, straights, trips and 2pair type hands on the river, probably some AK . So on the river straight becomes in the middle of my range and i fold trips and AK there for sure, which are more combinations than my top range (boats).
On the river we have 300$ eff in 360$ pot, which gives us 31% pot odds to call.
If i have to be honest, i think 2/3 of the straight combos are fold if we follow gto vs unkowns.
Any more thoughts about my though process ?