Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Boss $400.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1507648
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BTN: $372.00
SB: $315.27
Hero (BB): $402.90
UTG: $504.00
CO: $419.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BB with Q A
1 fold, CO raises to $12, 2 folds, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($26.00) J 5 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $16.00, Hero calls $16

Turn: ($58.00) K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $40.00, Hero ???


Ok, so the villain is 24/20/2.2 and folds to 57% of 3bets. He cbets 57% of flops. I'm not sure when should I 3bet this hand oop, I would do it more often when it was offsuit but I can't seem to figure out the right types of players to do it against. But in this spot I decided to call and he cbet smallish so I called. How often, if ever, do you c/r this flop ?
His turn continuation bet is 45%. C/R here seems good, I could easily represent a set. What do you think about leading the turn or calling the turn and leading any river (it sounds totally stupid haha) ? Or you just c/r and call a shove ?

1. You can rep sets of course when you c/r turn but all 6 combos of that.
2. what do you think his range is when he jams over your turn c/r? How much equity do you have?
3. what's your perceived range for calling turn and leading out on a blank river?

I think you should start by assigning villain some ranges and think about how he will play different parts of his range.

I personally think there is a lot of air/semibluffs in villain's range along with made hands of course. OP's perceived range is Jx, 7x, sets/2pair, 88-TT and also some gutshot+BDFD type hands.

Being that you're essentially playing 100bb effective stacks I would think that villain is only 3bet/shoving OTT vs a x/r with the very top of his range so sets or at worst KJ seeing how hero is holding Q?? You only have 23.7% equity vs that range.

1,100 games 0.001 secs 1,100,000 games/sec

Board: Js 5d 7c Kc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.000% 29.00% 00.00% 319 0.00 { AcQc }
Hand 1: 71.000% 71.00% 00.00% 781 0.00 { AdAs, AhAs, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, JdJs, JhJs, 77, 55, KJs, JcTc, 9c8c, 9c6c, KJo }

Ok so I gave him this range for jamming over my turn c/r, would you add or remove anything ? If I c/r to ~$130 and he'd jam over me I'd have to call about $200 with a $600 pot to win so 1:3 so 25%. Don't know why but I still feel like I should do at least one extra calculation here....hmmmm I don't think he ever bet/calls this turn so I think it's all correct, isn't it ?

edit: it can't look that good...I'm sure I forgot about sth

You started with full 402, preflop put in 12, flop 40 and turn 130 and if he shove you have to call more than 200 c/r big enough so you are priced in to call it off isn't a good reason to stick your stack in way behind anyways but your math seems off

Do people usually raise 96s from CO and why would villain jams 98 or JT of clubs?

Yeah, I would think that 98/T9 hands would be in villain's barreling range, but not in their 3bet stackoff range.

So what is the best thing to do here ? When we exclude hands like 98s,JTs and 96s from his jamming range I have 24% equity and like you said I calculated it incorrectly and would have more than 1:3 to call so it wouldn't be profitable to call his jam and it wouldn't really be a good idea to c/c his turn bet. What is Heros plan then ? 3b preflop and not have to make this kind of decisions or what ? Btw. I'll need a coach soon (as you can see...) and you seem like a good choice Blah

it wouldn't really be a good idea to c/c his turn bet

I think c/c turn should at least be +EV. What range do you give him for barreling turn? I think you have more than 33% equity vs his turn barrel range so it's +EV to call the turn even if you have 0 implied odds on the river.

Now give him a turn range and see what range of hands he b/f and b/c turn to figure out if turn raise/fold is more +EV than c/c and you would have the best play.

This is the barreling range I would give villain...

KK+, JJ, 77, 55, AJs, AsQs+, AsTs, AdQd+, AdTd, KTs+, QsTs+, QdTd+, JTs, Jc9c, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c6c, AKo, AJo, KTo+, QJo, JTo

I don't have time to count out all combos and to see if x/r here is +EV, but would love to have anyone commment on the range as well as figure out the calc...otherwise I can when get home.

You started with full 402, preflop put in 12, flop 40 and turn 130 and if he shove you have to call more than 200 c/r big enough so you are priced in to call it off isn't a good reason to stick your stack in way behind anyways but your math seems off

Do people usually raise 96s from CO and why would villain jams 98 or JT of clubs?

Agree.

People just dont jam KJ,AA on the turn. Its basically sets and worse draws, and even then I assume alot of players call with that range more than shove.

FWIW OP, you are getting barrel a lot on this flop. There are a ton of blanks/overcards villain can bet to make you fold straight draws and gutshots, so flop should be a c/r, and I tihnk a turn c/c is better than a turn c/r given you have the nut no pair.

The only reason to c/r this hand is because you think he bets 7x and folds (unlikely to bet IMO), or beacuse you want to c/r and blank rivers so get value from worse draws, and make him fold Jx,Kx enough of the time.

i'd c/r the flop. too many cards we have to fold on and too many of our 'good' cards make for awkward river spots. it's just a spot where our range as the one c/r and betting is better for this hand than our range c/c.

as played, call. there are still plenty of ways for you to win this pot on the river.

i'd c/r the flop. too many cards we have to fold on and too many of our 'good' cards make for awkward river spots. it's just a spot where our range as the one c/r and betting is better for this hand than our range c/c.

as played, call. there are still plenty of ways for you to win this pot on the river.

Problem with this line is that most midstakes grinder don't go for a c/raise with a weak TP type hand and are therefore pretty much polarized/readable when the c/raise dry boards

that's ok. i'm not most midstakes grinders, and this hand fits well into our c/r range in that it can continue on a lot of cards.

as played, call. there are still plenty of ways for you to win this pot on the river.

you like x/shoving most rivers even when we brick?

not board pairers (though Kx would be a sick shove against a thinking player if we had a clean image)

beyond that it would have to depend on how many combos he vb/folds. some cards might improve a large part of his barreling range and be bad, like 9/T/etc. we're looking for the cards that do the least to improve his equity but don't discourage his barreling. on this runout, we'll see a river bet quite often, so it might not matter as long as we don't expect him to check back QQ+ on some rivers.