A hand from a session I just played with mdm13 sweating me, we both thought that the river decision is certainly close. But first some reads: MP is a fishy guy with 31/0/2.2 stats after 65 hands, the other player is basically an unkown (just 10 hands). I think preflop, flop and turn are all standard, the interesting decision is the river.

When you get called on a board like this by two players on both the flop and the turn the probability that one of them has a flushdraw is huge, but on the other hand there isn't a lot of money behind so if we bet we should expect to get called by worse also on the river.

So what would you do here? Would you change your decision if we somehow had T Q or if the turn would have been 2 ?

Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $239.85
MP: $202.35
CO: $200.00
BTN: $207.00
SB: $196.75
BB: $243.10

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG with T Q
Hero raises to $8, MP calls $8, 1 fold, BTN calls $8, 2 folds

Flop: ($27.00) K 9 J (3 players)
Hero bets $21, MP calls $21, BTN calls $21

Turn: ($90.00) 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $66, MP calls $66, BTN calls $66

River: ($288.00) 2 (3 players)
Hero requests TIME...

I check/fold this. It's not likely that anyone is gonna put a bet in on a bluff 3 way. If you check and someone bets, especially the guy in the middle, he most certainly has at least a flush. I think betting is real bad here, maybe you get called by worse if this was HU, but 3 way the likelyhood that someone had a flush/fh is too good and I think most 2 pair hands check it down. If it turns out you missed value, then so be it.

I don't think having the Qc changes my mind on this one.

I'd be more prone to check calling or even betting w/ an off suit 2 b/c I'd be thinking that JJ/KK would likely 3 bet pf and 99 would have jammed the flop and if not the flop then the turn. But it's tough here cuz of the fishy player and unknown in the hand. You never know what they could be doing that defies logic.

fwiw i'd bet more on the flop and turn, which might make our river decision easier. you've got like 120 left in a huge pot, but i don't see anyone bluffing the river. i'd probably check and reevaluate, most likely folding.

23-24 on flop
75 or so on turn

as played, c/f river, as people are unlikley to bluff.

and this isn't the worst river ever, the J is

Yeah, think that making flop and turn bet both a bit bigger is a good idea. If I bet flop and turn bigger, would you still want to c/f river?

probably so, as the hands that are likely include things like KQ or QJ that have showdown value but that aren't really strong enough to bet (so they will check them behind) or flushes / potential boats i guess (although those are unlikely)

3 ways, people are very unlikely to bluff here or vbet with worse.