High Stakes Strategy Poker Forums

yo

this is a live hand... i dont know the villian all that much but he was playing well 3beting a lot i had 4bet him a ton also and he had folded everytime he was obviously tilted by me but he seemed okay to just let me win pots and focuses on the fish. I had won no pots of him that were large or significant

oh idk how relevant this is but one of his friends leaned into him way before the hand while giving him his ipad and said ''that kid is crazy watch out'' he then asked if i was on case or something and his friend shook his head / laughed

8k effective

I have KJ

folds to me i raise BTN 3x he 3bets to 240 i call

flop comes 3 8 6

he bets 250 i call

Turn 4

he checks ( most of the time he has folded in similar spots ) i bet 500 and he calls

River has 1980ish T i bet 1300 and he shoves like 6k to call

Wow, I don't think I'd be capable of folding here.....sick spot.

Pretty bad post mate, you're not mentioning the table dynamics(my live game would be a lot different than yours presumably, whereas online is mostly the same and hence isn't mentioned much) I'm not sure how much you opened to either, ~ pot sizes would have bee nice too. No idea what on case means either D:

The great thing about live is you can deduce so much information about your opponents. You're pretty intuitive, so you probably got this down on a sub-conscience level, but I usually gain tells in these sort of spots that greatly influence my play, eyes and posture is a big give away, I suppose if he's actually any good he'd be able to hide it but.

Ultimately, no one can say if this is a good fold or call but, as only you have the information to say so. You're getting ~ 1.5:1, meaning you need to be good 40% to be BE, meaning if you ever think he's getting it in with Qsxs, it'd probably be +EV to call, factoring in random spazz as well, which people tend to do more so live. Going by the information you gave here but, I think this is a call, as he could be doing some random lol live leveling thing, he could be tilted which could increases the chances of the former, if he thinks your crazy and you have a aggressive dynamic going on that means he's gonna be doing this with Qsxs I suppose. Actually, maybe a fold, what do you actually beat that he's going for value with? His potential value hands:

Win: Qs9s, Qs7s, 7s5s, 5s4s, 4s3s 5 combos

Lose: AsQs, As9s, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, 7s9s 8 combos

I think he'll 3bet As2s much more than Qs7s so let's say he has 4 combos you beat. So you're getting 2:1 where you need 1.5:1 to be BE. Basically means he needs to be doing this with air 33% for you to be BE, so you tell me if this is a profitable call, assuming that he is doing this with Qxsx

oh you said stakes, ignore sentence in first paragraph -_-

no live reads besides he thinks you are crazy? Tough one.

Never folding. Potential for re-bluff's and thin value with lower flushes or possibly 97s. Most importantly, if he's good why wouldn't he just x/r the turn with AsXs, you probably have a fairly wide bet/folding range especially given the history that has lead you to the read that he has folded there lots in the past.

River check/raises this deep are usually reserved for the supreme nuts, especially as your river bets have a lot of flushes in your range. He could do this with worse, but there are fewer lower flushes given that he 3-bet and the flush cards you've seen, and as you go lower down, check-raising river without much established dynamic becomes more and more suicidal.

A bluff would be rare but he needs to decide to bluff a lot less out of the times he doesn't have it compared to the times he has it, for it to become a call. Again though, without much significant river history I would say the chance he bluffs here is very low.

I mean 400 bigs deep this is nasty. As you already know this is extremely read dependent, but I think we can all agree that he's never doing this with anything less than an A high flush for value. Even the very best players I've seen at 5/10 would never ever make this bluff or do this with less than the nuts.

I also think the biggest deciding factor in this hand with the information you gave is that fact that he'd folded to every 4-bet from you so far. Because of this his 3-bet range is going to be a lot stronger and have a lot more Ax hands in it. So yeah I'm folding here.

Never folding. Potential for re-bluff's and thin value with lower flushes or possibly 97s. Most importantly, if he's good why wouldn't he just x/r the turn with AsXs, you probably have a fairly wide bet/folding range especially given the history that has lead you to the read that he has folded there lots in the past.

We lose to 97s(straightflush)

Interesting idea about him x/r with Asxs on turn. tbh I've never needed to be concerned with this dynamic; why wouldn't he just x/r flop?

We lose to 97s(straightflush)

Interesting idea about him x/r with Asxs on turn. tbh I've never needed to be concerned with this dynamic; why wouldn't he just x/r flop?

Because on this board he will be a pretty big favorite to cbet a wide range, which means hero can and should be calling with a pretty wide range on the flop with the intention of bet/folding the turn lots when villain should be slowing down, especially on such a poor barreling card. Therefore he can trap two bets in the pot against a wide range, the first on his bet and the second by checking and letting hero stab.

I don't see why he doesn't just bet the turn instead but. Hero might fold small pocket pairs, which villain is behind, but I don't see why hero would want to bet such marginal hands there.

What I'm saying is, how often would he perceive hero to bet there, and how often would hero actually fold?

B-rye88 - by the river i really don't have that many bluffs in my range

River check/raises this deep are usually reserved for the supreme nuts, especially as your river bets have a lot of flushes in your range. He could do this with worse, but there are fewer lower flushes given that he 3-bet and the flush cards you've seen, and as you go lower down, check-raising river without much established dynamic becomes more and more suicidal.

A bluff would be rare but he needs to decide to bluff a lot less out of the times he doesn't have it compared to the times he has it, for it to become a call. Again though, without much significant river history I would say the chance he bluffs here is very low.

So you think that the-

% chance he raises a smaller flush for value > % chance he decides to bluff here with maybe the A as a blocker or something?

Chuckle, fold + show, "I can dodge bullets baby".

B-rye88 - by the river i really don't have that many bluffs in my range

Pretty sure I'm not saying anything you don't know, but this is probably less important than what he thinks you could have in your range.

Also, really? You never float this flop and then when called on the turn follow through on this river card? I mean either you can value bet AT here, in which case you think he can put you on enough bluffs to call with 8x or pocket 99's or something, or else you don't think you could value bet AT because he folds too much, in which case it seems like a spot where you should be bluffing with A5dd and all that crap 100% of the time.

Also look at what we block and how he has to play it. He has to take a range of A2ss, A3ss, A4ss, A5ss, A7ss, A9ss, and AQss and #1) 3bet it pre #2) Bet the flop (ok that's pretty likely) #3) X/C the turn (this is probably the most important part; I mean I get it with A3ss or A4ss and that's it) and then #4) Decide to x/r the river.

#2 is obviously very likely, but #1 it's doubtful he does with A9ss and maybe a few other ones given how deep you are, #3 seems weird with anything but A3 or A4.

#4 is kind of questionable. If he thinks you bet with anything you call a river lead with I guess river x/r is the right play since you can also bluff; but then, if he thinks you are bluffing lots such that a river x/r is good, then he could also think that as a bluff.

Idk, like I said gets ugly but I just think that with all that taken into account it starts to look like he has very few value combos.

Then again, up to you whether you think he's good enough to x/ship 7K to win 3300 on a bluff. I've folded in spots where there were 5 value combos simply because I didn't think he could have 3 bluff combos.