Hey to everyone!
Although being a member of DC for a while now this is my first post. I’m a very lazy poster but an avid forum reader. So when I post, my posts tend to be very extensive. ;-)
Great video, FWF and Blah! Great thread!
Quite some ugly spots in this episode, all of them very interesting and thought provoking! Before I’m going to comment on the hands one suggestion/request: Can you incorporate stats more in your decision process, when reviewing hands? I know, stats aren’t that important, but Blah has a lot of hands on most of his opponents and I’m pretty sure some of the hands should’ve been played a little bit different because of them. It also would be nice to get a quick rundown of Blah’s hud at the beginning of the next episode (most of it is self explanatory, but not all of it).
To the hands:
I think Blah played this one well. I’m not sure, if you had any solid reads whether this guy is really good or just an average reg. Without any great reads the fact he is calling a 3bets oop leads me to think he is just average. I don’t think Blah does get that crazy on the btn to warrant villains PF call oop.
In that spot an average reg has a very narrow unbalanced range, which contains many broadways with a Q and 77-JJ (It would be interesting to know, what his call 3bet oop % is.) That’s about it. I doubt he is balanced enough to slowplay AA-QQ all the time here, (what he really should vs. a competent player, if he doesn’t want to turn his oop calling range face up.)
So if these basic assumptions aren’t way off, checking the flop is the right play, imho. Let’s say he has TT+. It’s not very likely he is going to fold such a hand unless an A or a K hits the board, not even to three barrels. I guess he’ll fold 77-99 on the river, if he has these hands in his calling range. (I’m not so sure he has them though.) If you have any proof he calls 3bets with middle PPs oop your basic assumption should be he is a rather call happy guy. So it would be interesting to see this guys “fold to flop, turn and river cbets in 3bet pots” percentage. If these are low as well, I’m pretty sure check folding is the best play on this board, when we don’t improve.
It’s close, but I think in theory the river is a check behind unless we have any proof villain calls with QJ (preflop and on the river). If we don’t, the only worse hands, which are calling, are KQ (if so) and AJ. Maybe he is hero calling with JJ, but that’s about it. 1010 got there. For the sake of balancing we have to bet though. But if we bet, we have to fold to a raise. Our hand is pretty face up and I doubt villain is crazy enough to bluff this river to make an A fold (he rather would hero call), because after the shove the pot odds are just too tempting for a crying call. And no, this guy is not trying to level anybody in that spot.
What is his raise river percentage? I guess it’s pretty low and insanely value heavy. In such a close spot I think it’s better to go for the extra information you get vs. an unkown, when you just check behind. If he shows up with 99 or QJ, this is valuable information and we know we have to bet AK and our air on turn and river the next time in a similar spot.
Are these only FR stats or combined stats? I assume combined stats, because this would be the loosest FR table I have ever seen since I escaped the micros. I don’t know, what you guys think, but I think it’s very important not to mix up HU, 6max and FR stats.
I like the flop check.
If we should call or not, depends on his PF call 3bet oop range and what we think about his bet size tendencies. Villian first calls a minraise and then a squeeze oop, which, again, leads me to think, he is just an average player unless proven otherwise. Unfortunately, the board is hitting the average calling range of a reg very hard.
So on this board a pot size bet made by an average player on the turn is very disturbing. It’s pretty much their way of saying “I have a bigger hand than yours”. This guy is obviously afraid that a T, a J, an A or any heart hits the board. From his perspective you cannot have much more than a draw and AQ/AJ/JJ/TT. So he is mainly potting to charge your draws (he probably puked, when he saw the river card), not because he is creative with his bet size.
For the reasons stated above, we should check behind. He told you he has a hand and as correctly mentioned in the video usually average players tank forever to finally click call with it. You give these average guys way too much credit, imho. For him it does make sense to check the river, because he has put you on a draw. On the other hand he is still married to his hand, so he clicks call anyway. Just because someone has reggish stats and plays 5/10 doesn’t mean he is really good. I mean, first he calls a minraise in the SB with KQ, although he really should 3bet it for several reasons, then he calls a squeeze of very strong opponent oop. On the turn he makes a totally unbalanced pot size bet (I’m very confident he is never potting his bluffs there) and then he fails to value bet the river. The average ABC micro and small stakes reg would’ve played this hand exactly in the same fashion. The best way to exploit those players on these boards is to check behind. You are going to win more than your fair share IP anyway, so there really is no need to try to bluff such a guy off AK or K10 (two hands he almost never has in that spot).
Additionally, as in the previous hand, the check behind most likely would have given you a good piece of information, even if he shows up with K10 in that spot. Knowing he calls 3bets oop with such trashy hands is worth much more than a fold by him on this river, I think.
After two calls I don’t give the reg a set. If he is really, really good and reads Blah’s lead as very strong he might only call with it, because he knows Hero has 89 all the time. But an average to just good reg would almost certainly raise a set on the flop. So he has to have two pairs and K+pair type hands and AK in his flop calling range. When he just calls the turn, AK becomes very unlikely though.
The river is a check fold. Villain is not going to value bet a set in this constellation. As stated he must be a very good hand reader and a very good player to do this and even more importantly think so highly of Blah, that he actually sees a chance to make him fold 89 in that spot while giving him amazing pot odds. If we have no proof he is such a type of player, it’s very unlikely he bets anything than a K and a flush there, especially with a weaker player in the pot, who is allin. What can he really gain by betting a set? There is a decent chance Hero is check/calling 89, because the pot is so big. Additionally there is a very good chance the weaker player has a straight or a flush and villain is going to lose anyway.
It certainly would be awesome for villain to bet a set of tens and make hero fold a better set or 89 and stack the weaker player at the same time. But the thing is, hero really can’t have a set in that spot and the average villain is not going to get tricky here often enough to become a concern for us. If he value bets a set in that situation and wins the pot against the weaker player, so be it. The fold is still correct, because you most likely run into a straight or better 10 times out of 11 in that very spot.
IV.) AK vs. nit
Whether you should 3bet or call depends on his raise first in percentage on the HJ and what you have seen so far. If you think he calls 3bets IP with AQ a flat or a 3bet is fine, I think. If he folds AQ a flat becomes more attractive. Either way it’s very close, because you are oop postflop, but in can’t be much of a mistake to 3bet AK unless villain is opening way less than 10%. In late position a flat becomes superior though.
Easy cbet for value.
When he raises and has a high fold to 3bet preflop he can’t have many flushdraws. KQs and maybe QJs and J10s. Even if he has them in his range I highly doubt this guy is raising them. If he is a setmining in 3bet pots type of reg I give him the following range for raising the turn: AA, AK, 77, KQs and AQ, if he thinks you are full of sh***t. He can’t really have 88, because normally a nit folds this hand on the flop.
What I learned about nits is, they hate to fold really strong hands. On this particular board AQ is a strong hand and he sees all these “maniacs” around him, going broke with nothing so he says to himself: “This guy is barreling the flushdraw all the time and is hero calling with crazy stuff, so I gonna shove the turn for value.” There are only so many nits around, who understand much about board texture, perceived ranges and so on. A nit on 5/10 has too much money, won a big tournament or is a live player, who thinks 5/10 is the same game online. I just can’t imagine, you can make your way up to 5/10 playing 18/14 unless you are some kind of mass tabling grinder. If you could, poker would be very far from being dead. (And the more I watch mid stakes tables on smaller networks, I believe there still can be made plenty of money).
So if his raising range from above is not totally off, it’s a call, even when you take KQs out of his range, albeit I’m aware it’s not much more than a break even play. I think I would only fold AK, when the turn was a J, a Q or has completed the flush. I might also consider folding, when the board is super dry, because villain wouldn’t try to protect his AQ from a flush (and cannot have a draw in his raising range).
The first thing I would check is his raise first in percantge from utg to determine how wide of a range he has. I’m constantly referring to raise first in stats, because PFR is way less accurate. A 19/16 probably opens around 5-8% from EP, maybe a little less, maybe a little more (when he isn’t aware of position at all).
I also always used to check call such boards, but the more I think of it that’s a mistake against a very tight player, who has opened utg. This guy only has overpairs and overcards in his range. Let’s say he has KQ type hand and a none club K hits, you might get action for two more streets, if the flush doesn’t hit. At the same time you lose a lot of action from TT-QQ. Granted, you are going to fold out quite some overcards with a raise, but he is still going to call with 3% of his range, so almost the half of his opening range! He is not going to fold an overpair against a raise. He is not folding overcards with a flushdraw, he even might peel once with AKo. Simply put, against a very narrow range, we should raise, against a wider range we should just flat the flop cbet.
If a none club comes, I would check. An average player will put us on a draw all the time and will bet almost his whole range, especially IP. If it’s better to flat or raise his bet is a tough question, I’ll probably would flat and rep the draw, but it really depends on any read I have on my opponent.
If a spade comes, I would donk small (half pot or less) to give villain a chance to call with his small overpairs that contain a club (He’ll call with AA or KK without a spade as well I guess). If we don’t bet, he almost always is going to check these hands behind.
As the hand actually played out I would always raise the turn. If he has air, so be it, if he has a good overpair with a club in it he is still calling, if he has the flush we stack him.
On this river I would bet, check his raise percentage, when he shoves (and most likely realize he almost never is bluff raising the river), curse all poker gods and click call, although I know I’m beat. Such a tight player is never ever bluff-raising this river. I know, there is no way he can have a ten, but in my experience on these boards they somehow always have it, when they raise. The average 19/16 simply doesn’t bluff such boards. That’s why 99 would the weakest hand I would bet here. Maybe the Ah flush, but only very small and I would snap fold to any raise of this guy.
@ Blah: Although you got sucked out quite a bit, you can be happy to have such players on your tables. Some of them made mistakes I wouldn’ve expected from a mid stakes reg and are only dreaming of the level of skill you already have. Just remember, average tight regs do always have it, when they raise the river unless proven otherwise, even on 5/10 as we have seen.
One more thing, why does PTR always show an error, when I try to find you there? I’ve tried for more than a month, but it’s always the same I also asked a couple of friends, they all get the same error message, when they search for your nick (Morgauth). I never have gotten this error message on any other player – maybe some secret agreement between you and PTR so that nobody can see how you crush!? ;-)
Great comment! I’ve written my post before I read your post and as you can see I came to very same conclusion you did regarding the AK hand vs. the nit. SpewKids comment regarding this hand is also spot on.
@Lolatronshik and Blah:
I like Blahs big bet on the turn. The weaker player is not going to fold many hands he called the flop with on a blank turn. We really don’t have to worry about the reg that much. If he shoves and shows down AK it’s a cooler. I actually think it may be best to just shove the turn. The weaker player is going to call and the reg might level himself into a call, if he happens to have a set (although I don’t think he has one really that often.) And folding out his Kx hands is not the worst thing in that spot.
Why do you guys think villian doesn’t have that many Kx hands in his range anyway? I think the average reg will call a flop lead with all his Kx hands, especially with a weaker player in the hand. Again, don’t give them so much credit unless they have proven you otherwise on several occasions. What Goldseraph has said, is spot on.
@Blah and Threads13:
I think you both brought good arguments in your 3bet or not to 3bet AK discussion vs. a nit. I would check his raise first in stat and go from there. If he is opening 10% or less of his hands I’m 3betting AK as a semi bluff to kinda balance my value range (AA, KK), when I’m oop, and call IP.
When he is opening 15% or more I think we should always 3bet AK, but I doubt a nit opens that many hands from the HJ.