High Stakes Strategy Poker Forums

we played 2469 hands, he beat me for $436. i was impressed. we'll see how this goes, i might post some more here...

Full Tilt Poker $5000.00 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players - View hand 366135
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $11891.00
Isildur1 (BTN/SB): $25422.00

Pre Flop: ($75.00) Hero is BB with T J
Isildur1 raises to $150, Hero raises to $600, Isildur1 calls $450

Flop: ($1200.00) 4 J 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, Isildur1 bets $700.00, Hero calls $700

Turn: ($2600.00) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, Isildur1 checks

River: ($2600.00) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $1400.00, Isildur1 raises to $24122, Hero?

What do I do? Why? Is my river bet good or bad? Why? What about my bet sizing? For what it's worth, I'm not saying I played this hand perfectly so feel free to attack every action and ask as many questions as you want...

phil galfond's (at bluefirepoker) assessment of isildur: http://www.bluefirepoker.com/blog.aspx?blogid=25

PREFLOP
I would not always 3-bet JTs oop against this player. Mainly because he is a beast postflop, which makes it very hard for us to get thin value.

FLOP
I guess you are checking here for deception and a little pot control? Depending a on how many bluffs you want to have on this board I think the check is fine. I really like the check if you have been check-folding similar board textures earlier in the match.

RIVER
I would only bet the river if I'm snap calling a shove. Your line screams thin value bet and your are seldom bluffing here => Aggro euro donks are mostly folding or raising. So you are either turning your hand into a bluff or betting to induce. If you are taking this line with other hands where you are snap calling a shove from him I guess it is okay to bet/fold JT here - because he is sometimes going to click call with a worse hand.

The problem with checking is that he in theory gets to play the river perfectly.

The problem with the bet size is that it matches your hand. I would either bet 1000 or 2200.

RIVER
I would only bet the river if I'm snap calling a shove.

The problem with the bet size is that it matches your hand. I would either bet 1000 or 2200.

don't i want the bet size to match my hand?

I dont play those stakes and not so much HU. Only when the tables on midstakes are starting and breaking. I have however watched a lot of the hands from their sessions. Especially the top ten biggest every day on tableratings.

Given that we have seen tons of 4betting light between durrrr and isildur1. I guess we can take out over pairs a lot. We have also seen a lot of gambling with weaker pairs. I prefer to go ABC on the flop, which means I am not folding here, and I dont like checking also. As you actually play it by check calling, it makes the hand very hard to play later on.

And these river spots. He is actually not overbetting the pot that much. 3x+what is already there. And Durrrr and Isildur have lots of these spots. Usually (but not always) they show up strong hands in these spots. So I think he draw out on you or at least give him credit for having outplayed you. And these river spots. They are too tough for me. Isildur1 has the ability to change and adapt to whatever you are made off. So it is an instant game of change.

On the river I like to make it bigger. Because it gives him less FE on a big bet. And check calling is also an obtion. I am not sure which I like best.

don't i want the bet size to match my hand?

I guess that depends on what we mean when we say match.

I normally try to bet an amount that fits my range. In this spot it could mean that I would try to bet an amount where it is ~ EV = 0 if he calls with 98s. But in order for you to get called by worse you have to have established a dynamic where he expects you to be turning weak made hands and flush draws, AK ... into bluffs. Was that the case?

The problem with 1400 in this spot, as I see it, is that you don't have that many (any?) natural bluffs in your river range. So 1400 is simply not a bluff often enough. It is a perfect size against a call happy player but not against this sicko. He goes into fold or shove mode when you bet 1400. I think JT is just a little bit too good to bet fold.

If betting the river ...

I would wanna test a bet of 1000 because I think it is less likely that he turns T9 into a bluff - and you save 400 the times he jams.

I would wanna test a bet of 2200 because I want to see if he goes.. WTF.. call because he thinks you are trying to bully him out of the hand. Downside is the price when he jams.

I don't know your HU game that well but I think you tend to go for a C/R with the top of you range or is betting bigger on the river. That makes the shove a pretty cool move by him. If you are betting 1400 with strong hands so often that he can't turn weaker made hands into a bluff then I love the bet size - but I think I would have picked a different hand unless I was snap calling that shove. If you are betting bigger with you strong hands I would prefer a big bet with JT since he might just might conclude that your range is polarized - you can then kinda range merge with the JT - and folding becomes easier

The interesting thing about his shove is actually that you almost never has a hand that can call.

From a MSNL player perspective it seems like improva nailed this one.

Thanks for the detailed post Improva, felt as though I learned some things reading it.

Please bear with me here as a) I'm just a 2/4 and 3/6 HU noob and b) I feel as though there is some gameflow considerations here that I am unaware of.

Krantz, I'd love to hear your reasoning for 3betting pre. What sort of strategy does your opponent have in 3bet pots? How low is his fold to 3bet at this depth? Is it to balance the rest of your 3betting range here? How do you plan to react to a 4bet in this spot?

Also is the c/c the flop then checking the turn line somewhat linked to pot control, (if not in this hand but to protect other parts of your range) or am I totally missing the point here?

Is there any merit to check calling the river? Or will isuldur1 just check back all the marginal sd hands that you beat here and bet better? Do you have a c/c range on the river here? What sort of range does your opponent get to the river with?

ok here's my 3 months at 50 and 100nl HU opinion!

Because there's no reads to speak of I'll have to take the hand in isolation.

I dont like any of it! You 3 bet a hand that generally plays better in a single raised pot. Then, given that he's likely the type of player that defends 3 bets fairly light, especially if there is any sort of 3 betting dynamic going on, I think you make a mistake not cbetting what rates to be the best hand most of the time.

Obviously this isnt critical, especially if he is the kind of player that is likely to throw 3 streets at it trying to get you off 88 or 99 here and you can just call down. But even so I think this hand is a bit vulnerable for that kind of line.

Then on the river you bet when its pretty hard for him to call with much worse, and you open yourself up to a shove, which he duly obliges. So I think the river is a fold.

Unless that is you interpret his turn check as taking a free card to hit one of the many draws and the bet is to induce when pretty much everything misses.

Obviously thats just looking at the hand in isolation and trying to view it through simple trying to make as few errors as possible poker eyes

I think preflop is fine; Isildur is probably calling frequently against 3bets, and also not playing fit or fold postflop. So when we 3bet out of position - especially deep - we need to do it wit hands that play well on a large number of boards; JTs would be one of those hands.

Flopping top pair this deep is however a bit of a sick spot, if you get raised you're not happy and bet/folding obviously sucks too. On the other hand; if you check/call this flop you kinda turn your hand face up and it's going to be very easy for a good hand reader to play very well against your hand, because your perceived range contains a lot of stuff similair in hand strength as the hand you have here (checking hands here that he would expect you to bet could be cool, and if you show that down you can start checking this imo).

If you have a read that villain is not very good (or you have created an image that allows you to guess how villain will play vs you), and just betting too much or too little when you show weakness; go for it. If you don't it's probably best to take a line that reps a wider range and contains stronger and weaker hands.

As played; river is an interesting spot. I think your hand is still very face up here, so if you bet here don't expect to get called by worse here very often imo.

If he for example bluffed flop, turned a 9 and thought it would be good enough to try to check it down he's probably not calling with it very often since it doesn't make too much sense for you to be betting 88 or a worse made hand, and you don't have too many missed draws in your range.

So how often is he going to turn marginal showdown value in a bluff here versus how often does he have a real value hand that does not bet the turn? I'd be very paranoid here because the only real valuehand he's repping here is QJ imo, but I have no idea how he thinks you would react vs a raise here if he's only repping a hand like that. And if you also don't have a clue, betting the river is probably not a good idea. Because if you bet here you are probably only inducing raises, and not many calls.

how deep into the session was this? how much does he know about you?

Isildur1 beat durrrr for like $2.3million in a few thousand hands at $500/$1k. He is a very good player. Granted this maybe due to variance but apparently he totally outplayed durrrr while running hot.

Maybe a crazy question Jay but do you really think you have an edge vs him?

Sorry not much help but dont want to give bullshit advice.

Isildur1 beat durrrr for like $2.3million in a few thousand hands at $500/$1k. He is a very good player. Granted this maybe due to variance but apparently he totally outplayed durrrr while running hot.

Maybe a crazy question Jay but do you really think you have an edge vs him?

Sorry not much help but dont want to give bullshit advice.

Jay's session was played way before durrrr's, FWIW.

Rob

meh, if you've been checking a standard range against him previously, probably need to call and find out what he's capable of. also would help to know how wide he's defending. can he have Q9o or just Q9s (obv he's most accurately repping q9)

i'm not real convinced the river bet is that great, in fact i think it's probably pretty bad against a good player. Let him value cut himself or bluff instead of trying to get value from the few worse hands he bets to protect on the flop (that might not always even bet, unless you have a diff read) and plus you protect yourself by actually having a c/c'ing range when you use this hand to bluff catch.

WoT

Isn't the key here that you can never have a monster here & he knows that? The top of your range is QJ here vs the many other marginal 1 pr hands you will have more often isn't it? So I guess the question now becomes is he levelling you cause he knows that & can shove with a lot of crap, OR does he have a hand knowing you might call cause you realize you're repping a weakish hand (thin value bet).

As Improva said- it seems that thin value bets are best to induce vs sicko's & NOT to actually get value (and how easy is it to get thin value from good/great players?)