High Stakes Strategy Poker Forums

Not to many reads on the villain played 107 hands and he has stats of approx 41/20. Saw him push 2k all in preflop with AJ so prob not scared to get his money in. First hand happened few hands before big hand - not sure if its relevant or not:

IPoker Network $10.00/$20.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 334329
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $1947.00
Hero (SB): $3986.50
BB: $2448.00
UTG: $6282.00
CO: $3163.00

Pre Flop: ($30.00) Hero is SB with 9 8
UTG raises to $60.00, 1 fold, BTN calls $60, Hero raises to $260.00, 1 fold, UTG calls $200, 1 fold

Flop: ($600.00) 4 8 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $420.00, UTG calls $420

Turn: ($1440.00) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($1440.00) K (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

Final Pot: $1440.00
UTG shows A 4
Hero wins $1437.00
(Rake: $3.00)

Then this hand happened:
IPoker Network $10.00/$20.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 334330
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $1980.00
Hero (BB): $4743.50
UTG: $2478.00
MP: $5602.00
CO: $4388.00
BTN: $3133.00

Pre Flop: ($30.00) Hero is BB with K A
UTG raises to $60.00, MP calls $60, 1 fold, BTN calls $60, 1 fold, Hero raises to $300.00, 1 fold, MP calls $240, BTN calls $240

Flop: ($970.00) A J K (3 players)
Hero bets $580.00, MP calls $580, BTN folds

Turn: ($2130.00) J (2 players)
Hero bets $820.00, MP raises to $4722.00,


What should i do? How often am i good here? What about my flop and turn play?

Given the first hand it seems like villain is loose passive, not really trying to get you to fold better made hands (first board looks like a very reasonable spot for him to turn his hand in a bluff).

So based on that, I would say the probability of him bluffing the turn is slim in the second hand (besides the fact that this is a bad board to bluff raise to begin with - I assume AK here is the bottom of your valuebetting range).

Think betting the turn here is good, altough checking isn't unreasonable either i guess.

This looks like a pretty easy fold imo. I think he almost never shows up with worse than Jx here, and he may have a boat leaving you drawing to 3 outs. Flop and turn look fine but I wouldn't use this turn bet size against a more aggro player since they could interpret it as a thin value bet and turn KQ into a bluff and pop the turn. I think a ~1100 turn bet would balance better for times when you have AJ or KK on this turn and it looks stronger so you won't get bluff raised as often.

fold

Real nasty spot. I believe Hielko gave you a real good answer. Add to that, that villain has just won some big pots => villain is less likely to be running a big bluff.

When all this is said. I like to make it 1 x more preflop, because we are out of position. That means making it 360. Then on the flop I want to get paid off by AQ AJ AT. I dont think that worse are gonna be paying us off anyways, regardless to half pot or 90% pot. And if it is, it might be even more of a reason to bet closer to pot. With timing waiting as well, to make the laggy opponent think, that we are having a tough decision whether to bet or not.

Anyone checks turn?

Anyone checks turn?

plan?

Wow, what a shitty spot. On one hand, obviously folding is a super sensible option for the reasons stated above. On the other, he has seen you 3-bet 98s and bet flop, then check it down. You have also seen him get it all in with AJ. I think this goes down to how you interpret his him as a player. His stats alone over 107 hands don't really tell us much. Is he a lag, or a donk? What do you think? If he is a donk, I snap fold and don't think twice. If he is a lag, I probably call it off, and I'm pretty happy.

1. If he is a donk = He is shoving his trips+ imo.

2. If he is a lag = What an awesome bluff spot. You can only call with such a narrow range here, and your range is so wide...

Without understanding villain, I just fold.

I like the bet sizing if it makes him bluff raise a lot, we are often going to have a big boat here and a strong Jx quite often, and if we can get him to punt stacks in on a semi-bluff (with little or no equity), I'll happily fold in this smaller pot with a weak two-pair sometimes in order to get him to do that.

really it's exactly a matter of whether he shoves Ax or not (he likely doesnt); virtually all players call KT/K9hh to a bet here rather than raise (even if they didnt, it would STILL be a fold)

if he doesn't shove Ax to a bet, you're way behind virtually everything so it's clearly a fold