High Stakes Strategy Poker Forums

UTG is a 2+2 regular. I've got him running about 22/18 in 6-max. Our history consists of getting it in fairly light PF and him spewing to me fairly often postflop. I assume he 4-bets AA/KK/AK here. It's likely he calls my 3-bet with the majority of his range with the fish behind because that's how he rolls. BTN is some loose/passive fish.


$2k effective stacks

UTG opens to $70, fold, fold, BTN calls, fold, I raise to $320 w/ AQ, UTG calls, BTN calls

Flop ($960) QJ10

Thoughts about betting here? I checked and it checked through. UTG probably expects me to fastplay AK, sets here fwiw. I'd expect him to bet a set here too because of the fish and all, but it's possible he wouldn't.

Turn Q

I bet $680, UTG calls, BTN folds

River 7

We have like $1k behind...

comments on all streets appreciated

I put UTG on a medium pocket pair, 10+ he would 4-betting or going allin or he just slow plays KK,AA. Postflop I would bet for sure, since its a very coordinated board. If you get raised by utg, its a tough situation. I probably would fold after a raise.

I don't think he has to 4-bet AA/KK here. He's got position and the pot is getting pretty big, why wouldn't he just lay back and smoothcall it? Also he probably wouldn't mind the fish being in there if he's got those hands.

Flop I like a check, betting puts you in a lot of bad spots and you aren't terribly concerned about protecting your hand if the cost of doing so is often getting stacks in badly.

Turn bet is cool, again I don't want to rule out hands like JJ or TT but I agree that they should be less likely given the flop check. At this point I think its most likely that he has a big one-pair hand, like AA, KK, or AJ. None of these are very likely to bet the river for you though, so I'd go ahead and shove it in myself after thinking for a while.

I doubt he has KK or AA, most guys 4-bet those these days, especially if he's been getting it in bad a lot preflop. I also think if he ever ended up having those hands, he'd bet the flop most of the time with them.

Honestly I think there's very little value on the river since you probably won't be bluffing in this spot and I doubt he'll call you with AJ. Backdoor flush came in... I check and fold if he bets here.

Weird to say since you have a huge hand on this board but I just can't see him calling you with 99 or Tx or Jx unless you've been going absolutely animal on him with the 3-bets.

I think myself that villain could call 99 once here figuring hero to shut down all his junk that doesnt hit this board maybe, but the river....i cant see betting for value (in event villain happens to show up with KK or AA) unless we have that dynamic of bluff/shoving going on. And if we check i dont see villain turning 99 into a bluff here, nor AA, KK betting for value (i dont think).

I agree checking here is first, and you think calling the 1/2 pot river bet is -EV eh?

Wouldn't c/fing the river be a pretty big error if villain has KQ, which is definitely conceivable given his action on the first 3 streets?

I know this is only a small part of his range, but it seems equally likely that he has either KQ or a slowplayed hand like AA/KK/a set (which are all pretty unlikely but I think combine to form a part of his range).

So, what are we doing if villain fires on the flop?

As played, you need to bet the turn, and it's close between a bet and a ch/call on the river. I think I shove and expect to get called by a lot of hands.

on river he definitely has something he just wants to check down or a hand that beats you i dont think hes ever bluffing that river if checked to so c/f seems good