High Stakes Strategy Poker Forums

It's NL1000 but playing over 300bb vs jcmoussasux who is a very good tough high stakes player from what i've heard.
Since people in the high stakes thread probably are more familiar with him, i guess it suits better to post it here.
We have played very little against eachother but i've been very active with lots of 3-betting pf so far (playing 1 10/20 tbl besides this) so i guess he views me as pretty aggro but tight.
He's playing 22/16 with fold to 3-bet only 58%, but since i'm 3-betting him UTG from the blinds i guess that isn't very accurate in this case. I play my hand kinda face up, thoughts?

Comments on all streets appreciated.


$1000.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $1243.00
Hero (BB): $3177.00
UTG: $3716.00
MP: $618.00
CO: $1032.25
BTN: $1045.00

Pre Flop: ($15.00) Hero is BB with Q Q
UTG raises to $35, 1 fold, CO calls $35, 2 folds, Hero raises to $155, UTG calls $120, 1 fold

Flop: ($350.00) 9 T 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $300.00, Hero calls $300

Turn: ($950.00) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($950.00) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $800.00

I like flop/turn, now check/fold the river. I don't think he's going to vbet worse on this river, and it also seems a bit weird to me for him to bluff here with air so I like a fold.

Almost all of my play against JC has been during sessions which he has run absolutely horrible, so my read on him is skewed.

I am either CR or check folding this river. Probably CR.

Almost all of my play against JC has been during sessions which he has run absolutely horrible, so my read on him is skewed.

I am either CR or check folding this river. Probably CR.

What kind of hands do you think that almost full pot the river and than fold to a c/r? (I assume you don't do this for value here...)

a set or a six. All of those hands have the same relative strength since they only beat all bluff.

You may argue that he never folds those hands. If so that is fine. He is playing very poorly there and we are exploiting the hell out of him even though our play is -EV. I infer from your post that you are never bluffing in a spot like this. The only problem is that if our assumption is incorrect we lose a good bit of equity. Also, bluffing in this spot mau discourage our opponent from bluffing himself with made hands with decent re draw equity that took a free card on the turn. This only further increases the value of our strategy.

There are some frequency x magnitude issues that come up if we are not going to be playing any more hands with the villain, or any more hands deepstacked. If that is the case then our hand is effectively happening in a vacuum and that changes things.

I would bet flop

if the board was 456 with a 3flush I would like the check more.

On the river I think a fold is good. I think a bluff is more likely to fire on the turn to build a pot for a river shove.

Also I think a river checkraise would be completely unbelievable and if he has anything hes vbing here that beats 1 pair (which he should) he should call

Thank you for your replies, very interesting.

I think that we can assume that jcmoussasux's range here should be weighted towards stronger hands and I think he mostly has overpairs, so i hardly see any 6x but TT and JJ very likely. I also think a call on river is -EV.
I'm wondering what hands he's betting 300 into 350 on flop with, i think that betsizing is interesting since overall i think people bets smaller when checked to in that spot.

he has a straight or a set

he has a straight or a flush

i don't think a flush is particularly likely and think a straight is his most likely hand, but i think he has a set very very rarely. with that said, i like a fold here.

a set or a six. All of those hands have the same relative strength since they only beat all bluff.

You may argue that he never folds those hands. If so that is fine. He is playing very poorly there and we are exploiting the hell out of him even though our play is -EV. I infer from your post that you are never bluffing in a spot like this. The only problem is that if our assumption is incorrect we lose a good bit of equity. Also, bluffing in this spot mau discourage our opponent from bluffing himself with made hands with decent re draw equity that took a free card on the turn. This only further increases the value of our strategy.

There are some frequency x magnitude issues that come up if we are not going to be playing any more hands with the villain, or any more hands deepstacked. If that is the case then our hand is effectively happening in a vacuum and that changes things.

I agree with most of what you're saying but look at the line that hero took. It's going to be pretty hard to represent a flush or QJ and I think it gets even worse considering hero reraised preflop. Now he can have like 2 or 3 combos of nut flushes and that's really it. I think as long as you aren't a huge nit, JC looks you up here if you c/r.

I agree with most of what you're saying but look at the line that hero took. It's going to be pretty hard to represent a flush or QJ and I think it gets even worse considering hero reraised preflop. Now he can have like 2 or 3 combos of nut flushes and that's really it. I think as long as you aren't a huge nit, JC looks you up here if you c/r.

Very good point - a raise on the river is effectively setting money on fire you are trying to convince him him you called the flop with nuts then checked the turn with the nuts then checked the river with the nuts knowing he will bet - when would you ever do this when you are both so deep stacked? A call isnt out of the question as he could be bluffing (he def isnt value betting) but a fold is probably optimal