High Stakes Strategy Poker Forums

Here is a 25/25 cash hand that was played at the aussie millions poker tournament.

Stacks HJ $5.8k
CO $10k
BTN $21k

I'm on the BTN here, I have been fairly active so far at this table and I have run up a fairly big stack by getting a set in on a draw heavy turn and holding for a double up and have won a bunch of the smaller pots, I have been playing 8+ hours so far with the CO player and have played a bunch of long sessions with the HJ player.

HJ is a russian reg, seems like a predominantly live player but is very good, has a solid game, bit on the tighter side preflop and is capable of making big moves postflop in good spots. Definitely aware of his image and can hand read well. Knows about capped ranges and can adjust to other opponents fairly well.

I know that the HJ player knows that I am capable of making big bluffs postflop and I think he thinks I play too loose overall. He hasn't really had a 4bet dynamic going with me over the week or 2 we had played, especially at this depth.


CO is seemingly another reg, he had been playing in the aussie millions main event earlier (10k event). He had been playing on the tighter side but hadn't really shown down or done anything of note so far. Seems mostly ABC so far.

preflop ($50)
HJ opens to $75, CO calls, I raise to $375, HJ calls, CO calls.

flop K T 2 ($1175)
HJ checks, CO checks, I bet $600, both players call

turn 6 ($2975)
HJ leads out $1.2k, CO calls.....

what do you do here and why?

more to come later!

On the turn what do you do with AK?

How about TT and AA?

On the turn what do you do with AK?

How about TT and AA?

i'd raise all three, set HJ in

i'd raise all three, set HJ in

With AK is this for value/protection? What sort of range do people lead the turn with?

Also what are people's thoughts with regards to the flop betsizing? I feel as though it's a bit too small looking back on it.

With AK is this for value/protection? What sort of range do people lead the turn with?

Also what are people's thoughts with regards to the flop betsizing? I feel as though it's a bit too small looking back on it.

prob a bit too small on the flop

i think HJ could lead turn with KQ or KJ trying to see where he's at... thinking about this a bit more i suppose it's just as likely he called flop with TT and 22 intending on c/r-ing the turn, but when CO called changed his plan

Ok, so I actually flatted turn here because I didn't really know exactly what I'd do if CO 3bet. Bad reason to flat in retrospect but at the table that's what I was thinking.

Ok so here's where the bizzare bit is:

River is 8 HJ leads out 1.4k (leaving 2.4k behind), CO then minraises, what do you do here?

What sort of hands can CO be doing this with?

Ok, so I actually flatted turn here because I didn't really know exactly what I'd do if CO 3bet. Bad reason to flat in retrospect but at the table that's what I was thinking.

Ok so here's where the bizzare bit is:

River is 8 HJ leads out 1.4k (leaving 2.4k behind), CO then minraises, what do you do here?

What sort of hands can CO be doing this with?

it'd be insane if you were good here w all this action... can't see CO having anything other than a flush

it'd be insane if you were good here w all this action... can't see CO having anything other than a flush

Agreed. Any chance of cold 3betting here as a bluff? You'd think CO would raise his awesome flushes to 3x with how much HJ has been.

Or do people not fold any flushes in this spot?

it'd be insane if you were good here w all this action... can't see CO having anything other than a flush

Strange thing is that CO doesn't put the other guy all in with a minraise. Also what backdoor clubs does he have? Q J makes sense I guess, but what else?

I play 10/25 and 25/50 at the Borgata whenever I go down, and I get into these spots all of the time. I think what you need to do is sit back and realize that on the turn, there's absolutely no reason for to not go to at least 5k. At this point, you can feel pretty comfortable about having the HJ beat, and it's pretty obvious that the CO is on some sort of draw. Without even reading below the turn, the CO will not flat the turn with a set, or 2 pair, or any other hand that is beating you, I would love to get at least 5k here in on the turn, especially since if the HJ calls you light, the CO will most likely call with his draw. Luckily you have position on him for the river and whether the river is a brutal card, or a great card, you can make your decision.
I think you need to realize that if this was a 1/2 game and you had 1k in front of you, and a guy led out for 125$, you would go to $500, so your decision here should still be the same... if you cannot pull the same trigger because the $$ are higher, you should step down to 10/25 imo.

Super easy turn raise. Also river is most definitely a call but I was underrolled. Don't play scared money!

why do you think river is a definite call?

why do you think river is a definite call?

Had a lot of info about the opponents that I didn't post. It's just at the time I play I simply wasn't good enough to reason through it all. I tanked for like 3mins at the table and just couldn't figure it out. But the thing is, the turn is a definite raise and I totally messed that up.

Shuttle, as you'd won a big pot on that table getting a set in on a draw heavy turn, would you ever strongly consider flatting here (now you're on the side of "super easy turn raise") to mix up your play?

Shuttle, as you'd won a big pot on that table getting a set in on a draw heavy turn, would you ever strongly consider flatting here (now you're on the side of "super easy turn raise") to mix up your play?

This is a pretty commonly cited flawed logic. I wouldn't because it's simply a long way from optimal to do so and it doesn't actively exploit my opponents strategies here. The reason I called at the time was because I wasn't sure exactly what to do and I figured that folding is a big mistake and the raising might or might not be good but I knew calling was at least +EV.

Knowing more, this texture is a bad one to flat here vs 2 players because of the shitty river situations (like this one) that it sets up. Flatting a set here would be horrendous for that reason.

I spent like 2 days looking at this spot in cardrunnersEV and it was really revealing, just putting in the study hours really cleared these spots up for me.