High Stakes Strategy Poker Forums

Full Tilt Poker $5000.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 703943
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $5555.00
Hero (SB): $5025.00
BB: $8851.00
UTG: $5835.00
MP: $6460.00
CO: $5295.00

Pre Flop: ($75.00) Hero is SB with 8 8
4 folds, Hero raises to $150, BB calls $100

Flop: ($300.00) A 8 J (2 players)
Hero bets $250.00, BB calls $250

Turn: ($800.00) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $650.00, BB calls $650

River: ($2100.00) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $1750.00, BB raises to $7801, Hero ???

i was taking a shot since there was a fish in the game (mp). My normal game is 5/10, occasionally 10/20. Played about 40 hands when this hand occured.

Villain is nascar_1949, playing 23/20/2.2 that session. No reads.

I was playing 22/18/8.0 at that table. Didnt do anything crazy, was playing pretty solid. Don't know if he knows i'm taking a shot or views me as scared money or so.

What's my line on the turn and river? As played, what about my betsizes?

What do u put him on, is this always a flush? U think he would/could turn a hand into a bluff or some sort of double float like the other hand i posted?

impossible hand with no reads. flip a coin IMO.

would fold unless guy is crazy bastard

would you take the same line? what about the betsizes?

His screen name is NASCAR_1949. Obv a fish, call

In seriousness I'd take the same line with very similar bet sizing and would be inclined to bet fold the river.

You're smoked here. He never has less than the flush, prob the nut flush.

As played id fold the river. I would consider check calling the turn and river as an alternative play. Firstly he may value cut himself with two pair, secondly you give him a chance to turn all marginal hands into bluffs, thirdly you avoid him possibly shoving the turn on you and stopping you seeing the river which may fill you up. At least this way you guarantee a showdown - obviously there are downsides such as missed value etc.

with your line on the river you only really get value if he decides to hero call.

As a point of reference:

If he calls preflop with any two suited, flats K6o-KTo preflop, always shoves a flush on the river, and always bluffs the naked Kd then he is bluffing 29% of the time and folding is a mistake (need 20% equity to break even).

If he only flats KTo-K8o, he is bluffing 19.6%, and you need 19.1% to call.

If he starts bluffing Qdx, this becomes an easy call.

If he can semi-bluff some flush combos on earlier streets this becomes an easier call.

If he can semi-bluff the turn with the Kd, which seems retarded given he wins more if he bluffs the river, it's an easier fold.

I think I like your play so far and now you have to fold.

BTW:

(...)
If he can semi-bluff the turn with the Kd, which seems retarded given he wins more if he bluffs the river, it's an easier fold.

Don't forget we have equity against value part of his turn raise range