NoahSD continues to captain the Cracked Pearl. This week he plays 4 tables of $5/10 NLHE.
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Was that an autopilot fold BvB with gutty + BDFD + 2 overs vs a single cbet? I found that hand more interesting than the one you talk about (table 3), and right when I was debating whether floating or raising would be better you clicked fold.
Yeah, sorry about that.
Yeah, I think that spot's pretty close, but basically I just think these boards are bad to float on in general because a lot of people are checking all their air on these boards. I don't specifically know that this guy is doing that, but I think a random with his not-totally-fishy stats over a small sample probably checks air here something like 40% of the time. So that leaves him with a fairly strong range that's not c/fing the turn much or folding to a raise much.
It might actually be a call because his bet sizing shifts his range more towards air/pair + draw/super marginal stuff since lots of people are betting bigger with something like TP no draw/overpair/set. But I'm not really sure how strong that effect is.
So, yeah, I think it's pretty close.
I don't see why you would continue to open up hands like T8o and the like bvb vs bttech when he is going to continually 3bet you, bluff raise you, call down lite, etc. He was obv using his position very well against you, and tightening up your range would've saved u some bb's imo.
First of all, wanna say i really enjoyed this vid, and the series so far. Thx for that.
I have one question regarding 2nd barreling. You didnt 2nd barrel bluf a single time when bad turncards to barrel fell. You gave up most. The times you did 2nd barrel bad turncards were clear valuebets.
Do you ever bluf in those spots and what would be an optimal line in those situations to compensate and balance?
Like, c/raising bad barrel cards for value, only 2nd barrel to protect vulnerable hands, c/raise bluf etc.
Sklelce + Aaron,
Yeah. I agree that opening T8o was bad there. Sometimes (pretty often I guess ) I make mistakes.
Ty. You're awesome.
In general, I'm really not concerned with balancing my range. If I think people aren't folding enough to make a bluff profitable, I won't bluff.
If I don't think my opponents are folding much to a bet in a certain spot, then why would I bluff? How does balancing earn me money?
I will definitely bluff in non-obvious spots, but only because I think my opponent will fold often enough to make it good. There are lots of examples of stuff like that in my vids, especially in my rewind vids. Lemme know if you'd like me to dig up an example.
Sorry it took awhile to figure out what happened with the audio. It was in NoahSD's recording directly so the best I could do is halfway through the video resync it so the rest plays near perfect. I have uploaded new copies of mp4 and wmv. Enjoy.
Hey Noah, can you talk a little more about the thought process here? Is it basically that we have too much equity to fold and given such a big pot (and shallow stacks behind) we don't stand to gain from playing the river, which only leaves shoving as an option?
Is your default assumption that a decent aggressive opponent like this will b/c all sets on turn? Do you think he's valuebetting much thinner than that? Do you think being 3-way alters the ranges/situation/decision a lot?
In the 66 hand, I definitely don't think he bets sets on the turn very often.
The first thing you said pretty much nailed it. Basically, I'm considering whether letting us see the river before deciding whether or not to get it in helps Bt more or helps me more. There's not a huge difference between calling and shipping, so it's no big deal either way. If I call instead of shipping, here's what happens differently:
If he has 8x: On 11 scare-card rivers (a 3 or non-boardpairing clubs non-8 clubs), I save 570. On 4 and 5, I probably almost never get stacks in, so I lose 570. On the other 8 board-pairing rivers, I probably only stack him like 1/3 of the time, so I miss out on like 380. On other cards nothing changes. So, when he has 8x, calling is slightly better, but only by (11*570-2*570-8*380)/46 = ~$45.
If he has clubs: I lose the 1032 pot on the 6 non-8 non-boardpairing clubs. On 8c I lose the pot + my stack, 1602. On the two board-pairing clubs I gain 570. If we say he bluffs a 3 half of the time, then I lose 516 on those 3 rivers. On 3 non-club river 8s, I lose half the pot for another 516. If he bluffs one of the 21 blank rivers like 1/3 of the time, then we gain 190 from when he has clubs on those rivers. So when he has clubs, shoving is better than calling by (6*1032+1602+2*516+3*516-21*190)/46 = ~139.
So already if he has clubs 1/4 of the time and an 8 3/4 of the time, shipping is better than calling. That's before considering that he plays profitably against me with the 9x and pure air in his range and the small consideration of shutting coolhand out of the pot.
Does that make sense?
In the AJo hand I hate the idea of a delayed c-bet. I think that when I check back, I look like I either have air or something like JJ/TJs/89s or whatever. That really doesn't help me much as it means I have no implied on my outs, I end up getting bluffed off my hand by hands that would've folded to a c-bet, and if he decides that I have air a lot, I sometimes end up getting hero called by 88/77 that would've folded to a c-bet.