Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by jk3a (Mid Stakes)

firrrrrrrrrrrst again.


pwned, again.

Suggestion before watching the video:

Last weeks video was awesome, the best i've seen in quite awhile. I definitely like the idea for the series and look forward to watching all of the episodes.

I have a suggestion for a followup series - After this one, perhaps another series featuring the same 3 guys, but this time each one of them will play a mid-high stakes session, and all 3 of you will review the videos together. triple commentary from all 3 going over each others session reviews. Just a quick suggestion I wanted to point out before watching. ty for the vid

firrrrrrrrrrrst again.


pwned, again.

omg donkey plzzzz.

This video, as much as any other, epitomizes why jk3a is the nuts. Terrific analysis of simple common situations that almost every TAG screws up.

Great video + promising series, top class commentary from jk3a too analysing every option along with some simple maths. Keep it up DC

jk3a is soooooo awesome

Time Link to 00:53:03

We should ask The Dude here.

We need to estimate a cbetting range, and a call-our-shove-range. The Dude will do the rest.

Let's start with your assumed 3betting range and from there narrow down the cbetting range:
He can't have the NFD (we have the A), so of the 3betting range you assigned, that leaves us with only two possible FD combos (KQ and KJ). Let's assume, he cbets these 50% of the time (don't really wanna work with fractional combos here)

He has 24 overpair combos. Here it gets tricky. We (the viewers) obviously don't know as much as you about gameflow and dynamics as you, even though you mentioned the 3betting history. Still, you were playing at the time and that makes a diference, so I'm stuck here with rough estimates. I'd say he cbets overpairs the majority of the time, say 20 combos. Let's also add the one quads combo.

Now we add in a few BDFDs, say 5 combos and a few naked overcards (i.e. no suited or offsuit hands. That's 32 combos in total. Let's assume of these he bets 50% (16 combos)

His (assumed) cbetting range looks as follows:

TT, AdAs, AdAc, AsAc, AcKh, AdQs, AdQc, AsQd, AsQc, AcQd, AcQs, AdJs, AdJc, AsJc, AcJs, AcKc, KdKh, KhKs, KhKc, KdQs, KdQc, KsQd, KsQc, KcQd, KcQs, AcQc, KhQh, QdQh, QhQs, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, AcJc, JhJs, JhJc, JsJc, AcTc, 9d9s

That's 43 total combos in his (again, assumed) cbetting range.

Let's now assume a calling range to get an exact/assumed (assumed/exact, whatever) FE%.

Out of the made hands that he decides to cbet, he's obviously foding 0% so that'S 21 combos. He's also never foldong an FD (1 combo) and he might spite look you up with his better BDFDs.

Hence his calling range is:

TT, AdAs, AdAc, AsAc, AcKc, KdKh, KhKs, KhKc, AcQc, KhQh, QdQh, QhQs, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, JhJs, JhJc, JsJc, 9d9s

That's 24 combos

If these assumptions are at all getting close to his real ranges, then we have a Fold Equity of (43 - 24) / 43 ~ 44%

Our pot Equity vs his calling range looks as follows:

Board: 9h 8h 9c

Equity Win Tie
BU 19.76% 18.88% 0.88% { AhJd }
SB 80.23% 79.35% 0.88% { TT-99, AdAs, AdAc, AsAc, AcKc, KdKh, KhKs, KhKc, AcQc, KhQh, QdQh, QhQs, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, JhJs, JhJc, JsJc }

Now we just feed The Dude with this data:

Results

So with my estimated ranges a shove will be -EV, since we need 54.54% FE and only have 44%. Expressed in combos: We need him to have 53 combos in his entire range, but he only has 43.

Here is the math for jamming AhJd on 9h9c8h when villian 3 bets and cbets..

calling range = 99+, KhQh, KhJh and I put you on flush draw AKs = 30 comb
fold range = everything else! ATs-AQs,AJo+,KJs+,KQo = 50 comb

pcall (probablity he'll call) = 30/(30+50)
ecall (equity vs call range) = 20.6%

current pot size before we jam = 244
villan has behind = 443
jam size = 531

yielding EV of Jam =
(1-pcall) * 244 + (pcall) * (ecall * (244+443) + (1-ecall) * (-531)) with
net EV of +47.5$!
welcome to the world of super high variance!

if villian is a massive idiot say barrelling the turn like 75% of the time then its much more +EV to ship over a blank turn though and fold K and Q and value town him on A and J.

I guess now I am getting a little obsessed with this hand....


Let's look at Hero's actual decision in this hand (call flop):

Our raw showdown equity vs my assumed cbetting range looks as follows:

Board: 9h 8h 9c


Equity Win Tie
BU 33.89% 26.19% 7.70% { AhJd }
SB 66.10% 58.40% 7.70% { TT-99, AdAs, AdAc, AsAc, AcKh, AdQs, AdQc, AsQd, AsQc, AcQd, AcQs, AdJs, AdJc, AsJc, AcJs, AcKc, KdKh, KhKs, KhKc, KdQs, KdQc, KsQd, KsQc, KcQd, KcQs, AcQc, KhQh, QdQh, QhQs, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, AcJc, JhJs, JhJc, JsJc, AcTc }


Not too bad. We already have a profitable call if someone guarantees us, that villain will check down 100% of the time.

There are 6 cards in the deck that will increase our equity to over 50%: The 2 non Jacks (to roughly 53%), the J (to 61%) and the 3 Aces (to over 70%)

An additional 7 cards improve our hand to roughly 40% (the 2, 3, 5, 5, 6, 7 and T of :hearts

On the K and Q of :hearts: we will still have roughly 33%, aswell as on the 3 remaining 8's and T's

Any other card decreases our equity, ranging from offsuit 7's (~30%) to offsuit K's (15%)

So there are 21 cards in the deck, which, if they fall, will give us 32% equity or more vs HIS FLOP CBETTING RANGE (that obviously doesn't take his turn decision into account, which will obviously change ranges, hence equities again)

That's 21 / 47 ~ 45% of the deck. Not bad.

That alone should make calling +EV. We might get him off of better AX's, but we might also face some reverse implied odds. Given the fact that we're (as in: JK3A) are a good player and have position, we should be able to make more profitable decisions than him on turn and river, so calling becomes even better.

I still don't know the results of this hand btw. I know that the A (71.25% vs his flop cbetting range) falls, and that villain bets again. 180 into 329.

We can assume that he's going to do that with pretty much all of his air and (depending on the villain) his strong made hands, but he might slow down now with his underpairs.

Some people will not bet their monsters on the turn and have a bluff hevy 2-barrel range, while others will continue firing here with their value range.

Let's assign a range:

Board: 9h 8h 9c Ad

Equity Win Tie
BU 57.25% 48.05% 9.20% { AhJd }
SB 42.75% 33.55% 9.20% { 99, AsAc, AsQd, AsQc, AcQd, AcQs, AsJc, AcJs, AcKc, KdQs, KdQc, KsQd, KsQc, KcQd, KcQs, AcQc, KhQh, AcJc, TdTs, TdTc, ThTc }


I stripped him off a few TPs here, but in essence let him keep most of his value hands and fire all of his bluffs and semibliuffs. I also stripped him off most of his underpairs, except 3 combos of TT, which he might turn into a bluff here.

Close to 60% equity. Clear call again obv...

Now there is not a single rivercard in the deck that gives us less than 37.5% equity vs his turn betting range.

I will stop here. Firstly because I'm already making way too many assumptions, which will distort the actual ranges quite a bit I guess (and making even more assumptions now about his river bluffing tendencies would be a bit too much), and secondly because I'm tired and want to see the results.

I guess I just click call twice here no matter the rivercard.

/spamming the thread

more jk3a

this series has been outstanding thus far. great job.

Time Link to 00:36:27

If his value range is JJ-QQ + 1 kings combo, that makes 13 combos not 7. That makes the number of needed bluffing combos 6.5.

Great video though.

AK.... "so i 4B.. and he.... calls" said this like it was 100% supposed to happen. LOL gold

If his value range is JJ-QQ + 1 kings combo, that makes 13 combos not 7. That makes the number of needed bluffing combos 6.5.

Great video though.

ah thank you, miscounted