For the AA hand imo it doesn't matter if Scot's range is KK-TT and he never 4-bets KK pre. Two reasons:
1. utg has equity in the pot - even his purported wild range (does he really have no clue what Scot is doing?) defeats the AA a fair amount. if you add (combinatorically) this equity to Scot's, and consider the devastation of running into QQ-JJ 6/18 = 1/3 of the time, it's bad if the read of the KK-TT range is correct.
2. and even if it is not, we do NOT want to get involved in near-50-50 pots. the alternative is to fold and look for a better spot, namely a big hand, or a medium hand against the fish. Joe will have a 30K stack (60bb!) as a relative shorty with 2 hour rounds and a huge donator at the table. that's a juicy situation.
imo clear fold here. even if Joe's read of Scot's range is too narrow and you can throw in a bunch of AKs, I still want no part of it. the alternative is just too good. and what if Scot folds TT and AK routinely? what a huge cluster for us.
btw equity of folding is not zero. that is the best way of thinking about pots withing a hand, but horrible for long term and preflop. here folding allows you to participate in a good situation, whereas calling knocks you out maybe half the time and has you 2.5x the other half with a full KK-TT range. EV with these numbers is roughly 1.25stack with half chance of being knocked out. eff that. if it were a 20bb stack with fast levels and a table of nits you'd take it in a heartbeat, but not here.
1. Chip Leader Range : 99,AQs,KTs+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
Without any rando spazz monkey bluffs
2.Scott Clemens:KcKd,KdKh,KhKs,QQ-TT
50% KK 4bet freq
3. Joe : AdAs
on QJ9 rainbow
1. 34.7% equity
2. 37.8% equity
3. 27.4% equity
Pot is ~ 14k if 4400*3 + dead blind/antes
Joe 30k effective
Scott 21k effective
CL effectively donk shoves
Joe to call 30k to win 74k - needs 40% equity
If Chip leader never bluffs air
Joe has 43% equity vs 99,AQs,KTs+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
If Scott clemens is KcKd,KdKh,KhKs,QQ-TT thats 15 combos
If scott plays perfectly - he will fold 60% of the time.
So 60% of the time we will have 43% in 74k.
and
40% of the time we will have 8% of 77k + 43% of 20k side pot
Yeah - so it looks like a fold we would need pretty high bluff frequency combined with SC not playing perfectly and maybe some more dead money.
Does that look right?