Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by surfdoc (Micro/Small Stakes)

Time Link to 00:29:22

An unmentioned reason why AQ is fine to call there is that the all in guy eliminates the steals, forcing the OR to only play value hands, which are further narrowed to only hands that he thinks can fold an all in cold caller. And the original squeezed guy (hero) virtually never has a strong enough hand to back raise there.

Time Link to 00:37:28

I definitely 3bet this hand prf, but seems like the turn has to be a pot bet. You're not going to make any decent money out of your flush if you don't. He folds all his air anyway, why not give him the chance to make as big a mistake as he can w/something like 9x9c, or really any club? I think it might even be a spot to overbet because he's either got a 5 and will call, or might call shenanigans on you with some bluff catcher/club draw. No matter what, his whiffs won't call a minbet, so you might as well target the non-whiff parts of his range.

Time Link to 00:07:33

What do you rep here with a c/r? Does anyone ever really play a set or 2pair this way on a super coordinated board?

What do you rep here with a c/r? Does anyone ever really play a set or 2pair this way on a super coordinated board?

Can you be more specific in your question?

If you are asking if hero can ever have a strong hand that is going for a checkraise then the answer is yes. It all comes down to leveling. If I am playing you and you are going to call down with AT here because I am "repping nothing and would never risk a free card on such a wet board" then sometimes I just need to check and hope that the turn bricks and then throw in the monster CR to take advantage of your over read of my hand/tendencies.

I definitely 3bet this hand prf, but seems like the turn has to be a pot bet. You're not going to make any decent money out of your flush if you don't. He folds all his air anyway, why not give him the chance to make as big a mistake as he can w/something like 9x9c, or really any club? I think it might even be a spot to overbet because he's either got a 5 and will call, or might call shenanigans on you with some bluff catcher/club draw. No matter what, his whiffs won't call a minbet, so you might as well target the non-whiff parts of his range.

I think the weakish draws make up a greater part of his range then his 5x hands but like we concluded in the video I think this is splitting hairs a bit. If he calls the turn I think there is definitely some merit in a river overbet since we can polarize our range.

Can you be more specific in your question?

If you are asking if hero can ever have a strong hand that is going for a checkraise then the answer is yes. It all comes down to leveling. If I am playing you and you are going to call down with AT here because I am "repping nothing and would never risk a free card on such a wet board" then sometimes I just need to check and hope that the turn bricks and then throw in the monster CR to take advantage of your over read of my hand/tendencies.

That was pretty much my question.

Time Link to 00:06:02

I feel the issue here is that by C/R we are risking our entire stack. Even though we bet less we are never folding to a reraise. So, to simplify the math and figure out our needed FE I've assumed we do shove here. I figure our pot equity vs. his shoving range is ~30%. As the numbers below show we need ~48% FE to make this play breakeven.

Current Pot $4.20
Effective Stacks $22.75
My current bet $-
Villain raise $3.25
Dead Money at the time $7.45
My risk $22.75
My Equity when called 30.00%
Villain's Equity when he calls 70.00%
EV when called $(6.87)
Needed Fold Equity to break even 47.96%

So, lets look at his range to get to this spot and bet. It's BvB and he calls your preflop raise IP so he's pretty wide here and we'll exclude premiums: TT-66, 33-22, A8s-A6s, A3s-A2s, K8s, 87s, 76s, A8o-A7o, AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, AhTs, AhTc, AsTh, AsTc, AcTh, AcTs, Ad9h, Ad9s, Ad9c, Ah9s, Ah9c, As9h, As9c, Ac9h, Ac9s, KdQh, KdQs, KdQc, KhQs, KhQc, KsQh, KsQc, KcQh, KcQs, KdJh, KdJs, KdJc, KhJs, KhJc, KsJh, KsJc, KcJh, KcJs, KdTh, KdTs, KdTc, KhTs, KhTc, KsTh, KsTc, KcTh, KcTs, Kd9h, Kd9s, Kd9c, Kh9s, Kh9c, Ks9h, Ks9c, Kc9h, Kc9s, KhQh, KsQs, KcQc, QhJs, QhJc, QsJh, QT offsuit
That's 266 combos with card removal up till turn.

You bet this flop and he flat calls: AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, AhTs, AhTc, AsTh, AsTc, AcTh, AcTs, KdQh, KdQs, KdQc, KhQs, KhQc, KsQh, KsQc, KcQh, KcQs, KdJh, KdJs, KdJc, KhJs, KhJc, KsJh, KsJc, KcJh, KcJs, KdTh, KdTs, KdTc, KhTs, KhTc, KsTh, KsTc, KcTh, KcTs, KhQh, KsQs, KcQc, QhTs, QhTc, QsTh, QsTc, QcTh, QcTs, KhJh, KsJs, KcJc, QhJh, QsJs, QcJc, JhTs, JhTc, JsTh, JsTc, JcTh, JcTs, AhTh, AsTs, AcTc, KhTh, KsTs, KcTc, QhTh, QsTs, QcTc, JhTh, JsTs, JcTc, ThTs, QT offsuit
That's 117 Combos of hands he may call the turn with. I don;t think he raises here often so I'm going to assume he never does.

You check the turn and he bets. Most of his range is weak here and mostly happy to get to show down or see a free river card but lets say he will bluff some draws and bet most top pair:KdQh, KdQs, KdQc, KhQs, KhQc, KsQh, KsQc, KcQh, KcQs, KdJh, KdJs, KdJc, KhQh, KsQs, KcQc, QhJs, QhJc, QsJh, QsJc, QcJh, QcJs, KsJs, QhJh, QsJs, QcJc, QhTh, QsTs, QcTc, ThTs, ThTc, TsTc, 7d6d, Ad5d, 5d5h, 5d5c, 5h5c, Ad4d, 5d4d, QT offsuit
That's 44 combos (Your 33% vs. this range) but let's add in 5 bluffs = 49 combos

So, when you 3Bet him here you need him to fold 48% of the time so 49*.48=~24 combos.
We have the 5 bluffs so we need 19 more hands.
The offsuit KJ should fold and I had him semi-bluffing 3 combos so we need 16 more.
Let's say he folds QJ half the time = 5 combos. = 11 more needed
Let's say he folds KQ 1/3 the time = 4 combos = 7 more needed
Let's say he folds both A4 and A5 of diamonds = 2 combos = 5 more needed
I'm not really sure he's folding all these hands, because your line looks fos, but I was trying to get close and failed. IMO while we have a monster draw here, and it's close, check raising this spot is -EV

I feel the issue here is that by C/R we are risking our entire stack. Even though we bet less we are never folding to a reraise. So, to simplify the math and figure out our needed FE I've assumed we do shove here. I figure our pot equity vs. his shoving range is ~30%. As the numbers below show we need ~48% FE to make this play breakeven.

Current Pot $4.20
Effective Stacks $22.75
My current bet $-
Villain raise $3.25
Dead Money at the time $7.45
My risk $22.75
My Equity when called 30.00%
Villain's Equity when he calls 70.00%
EV when called $(6.87)
Needed Fold Equity to break even 47.96%

So, lets look at his range to get to this spot and bet. It's BvB and he calls your preflop raise IP so he's pretty wide here and we'll exclude premiums: TT-66, 33-22, A8s-A6s, A3s-A2s, K8s, 87s, 76s, A8o-A7o, AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, AhTs, AhTc, AsTh, AsTc, AcTh, AcTs, Ad9h, Ad9s, Ad9c, Ah9s, Ah9c, As9h, As9c, Ac9h, Ac9s, KdQh, KdQs, KdQc, KhQs, KhQc, KsQh, KsQc, KcQh, KcQs, KdJh, KdJs, KdJc, KhJs, KhJc, KsJh, KsJc, KcJh, KcJs, KdTh, KdTs, KdTc, KhTs, KhTc, KsTh, KsTc, KcTh, KcTs, Kd9h, Kd9s, Kd9c, Kh9s, Kh9c, Ks9h, Ks9c, Kc9h, Kc9s, KhQh, KsQs, KcQc, QhJs, QhJc, QsJh, QT offsuit
That's 266 combos with card removal up till turn.

You bet this flop and he flat calls: AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, AhTs, AhTc, AsTh, AsTc, AcTh, AcTs, KdQh, KdQs, KdQc, KhQs, KhQc, KsQh, KsQc, KcQh, KcQs, KdJh, KdJs, KdJc, KhJs, KhJc, KsJh, KsJc, KcJh, KcJs, KdTh, KdTs, KdTc, KhTs, KhTc, KsTh, KsTc, KcTh, KcTs, KhQh, KsQs, KcQc, QhTs, QhTc, QsTh, QsTc, QcTh, QcTs, KhJh, KsJs, KcJc, QhJh, QsJs, QcJc, JhTs, JhTc, JsTh, JsTc, JcTh, JcTs, AhTh, AsTs, AcTc, KhTh, KsTs, KcTc, QhTh, QsTs, QcTc, JhTh, JsTs, JcTc, ThTs, QT offsuit
That's 117 Combos of hands he may call the turn with. I don;t think he raises here often so I'm going to assume he never does.

You check the turn and he bets. Most of his range is weak here and mostly happy to get to show down or see a free river card but lets say he will bluff some draws and bet most top pair:KdQh, KdQs, KdQc, KhQs, KhQc, KsQh, KsQc, KcQh, KcQs, KdJh, KdJs, KdJc, KhQh, KsQs, KcQc, QhJs, QhJc, QsJh, QsJc, QcJh, QcJs, KsJs, QhJh, QsJs, QcJc, QhTh, QsTs, QcTc, ThTs, ThTc, TsTc, 7d6d, Ad5d, 5d5h, 5d5c, 5h5c, Ad4d, 5d4d, QT offsuit
That's 44 combos (Your 33% vs. this range) but let's add in 5 bluffs = 49 combos

So, when you 3Bet him here you need him to fold 48% of the time so 49*.48=~24 combos.
We have the 5 bluffs so we need 19 more hands.
The offsuit KJ should fold and I had him semi-bluffing 3 combos so we need 16 more.
Let's say he folds QJ half the time = 5 combos. = 11 more needed
Let's say he folds KQ 1/3 the time = 4 combos = 7 more needed
Let's say he folds both A4 and A5 of diamonds = 2 combos = 5 more needed
I'm not really sure he's folding all these hands, because your line looks fos, but I was trying to get close and failed. IMO while we have a monster draw here, and it's close, check raising this spot is -EV

Thanks for putting in all this work Shaggy. I think the conclusion and message is: in limped pots when the stacks are relatively deep that escalating even huge draws on the turn is usually a bad decision since you are so much more likely to be up against a nutted holding which minimizes your FE.