doesn't this raise sizing somewhat overrep your hand as like QQ? i feel like when i reraise in this spot i'm only running into sets. as far as the fold equity argument i somewhat agree but just seems like this player might not quite have an airball or JJ type shove in him here, i think his shove is only flush draws and sets which against that shoving range seems like your way behind.
In this hand when he raised me I thought the range of hands that have me crushed or have a ton of equity against me after he raises are very narrow due to the board texture. The only hands he can have here that he would be raising for value are 77, 55, and QQ. Hands like Q7, Q5 and 57s are just not in a 14/10 UTG PFR range. Any 5x hand for that matter is likely not in his UTG PFR range so him holding a combo draw such with a 5 in it is very unlikely. 89s is the only possible combo draw in his range PF here and against a 14/10 with a 32% ATT to steal that is very unlikely.
We can extrapolate from the HUD data that this player is positionally aware
and in my experience 89s is just not in a 14/10 with a 32 att to steal raising range, a 14/10 who steals 32% has an extremely tight range in early position.
When you factor in his fold to 3 bet was 56% we are 144 BB deep and he has position, I expect his calling range of my 3 bet to be a lot wider then normal, and it's wide to begin with. I am behind QQ, 77 and 55, I am ahead of and a large favorite vs everything else in his range
Given his range of hands, which would be sets, flush draws,KK/AA Qx hands, air and the occasional JJ/1010 type hand I am crushing his range of hands and that is why I felt comfortable stacking off here 144 BB deep
Lets add the extreme end of his range and include a hand like 89 of hearts. Against a combo draw such as 89 of hearts im a 57/43 favorite in the hand, as I hold the A of hearts.
I don't understand how my raise sizing seems to over rep my hand? The last thing you want to be doing here is to announce to the villain that I'm going to stack off and since I believe calling is bad here in this spot due to the fact that I expect almost his entire range to check behind on the turn due to the fact that a turn bet commits himself, the best option in this spot for me is to raise. I could call the raise and lead the turn but in my opinion that looks a lot stronger then my line because any turn lead by me would be commit him due to stack sizes.
A lot of players will raise here deep with air/marginal hands or Flush draws but very few will commit themselves with a follow up turn bet with air/marginal hand when I flat based on previous action, and a turn bet here would commit him.
Therefore my options are the following, 1) Fold which is out of the question due to hand ranges 2) Call, check the turn and allow him to check behind and take a free card, 3) Call the raise and lead the turn 4) Shove over top of his raise 5) Raise him very small and induce a call from a hand like AQ, KQ possibly even JJ or 1010 which would most likely fold to a shove or possibly induce a shove from air or his flush draws (I'm a 67% favorite vs Flush draws)
I agree that it's very unlikely this player is shoving JJ as a bluff here (I believe I mention that in the video) but some players will, and all players bluff some % of the time and I don't ever want to deny my opponent the opportunity to bluff.
How often have you seen someone raise pre flop, bet-3bet a 952 flop and fold to a shove after putting in 35% of their stack? It happens enough and I wanted to have the appearance of being able to do the same thing. I put in 35% of my stack in that spot which does have the appearance of some fold equity if he were to shove overtop.