Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by WiltOnTilt (Mid Stakes)

can I 6star this?

i think it happens a lot more when people have more to put in on the river. I.E. if you're bluffing 500 into 1k, you're going to get called a ton, whereas if you're bluffing 800 into 1k, its more effective.
1/2 pot 1/2 pot 1/2 pot, imo, isn't a phenomenally great way to get folds (whereas 1/2 pot 1/2 pot 2/3 pot+ is probably more effective, but i could obv be wrong here).

Also wrt to him shoving worse hands for value, he's calling all of those hands to a shove anyway.

i'd love for somoebody who does math to do something like
% river equity of guy bluffing turn, estimated % guy bluffs off on river, estimated % guy v-bets worse on riv, etc.

basically just profit we make by getting him to fold his equity on the turn vs profit we make by giving him the chance to either bluff us or suck out. either way i bet it'd be interesting.

Andrew

depends on what you mean by called a ton. you can bet 500 into 1k and get called a ton and still have it be a profitable bluff. You only have to get them to fold 33% make it break even. To bet 800 into 1k you have to get them to fold 44% of the time. When the defender has a range that almost never has a hand stronger than say like JT/QT here (based on how unbalanced ppl are these days in how they play the flop/turn) and rarely have pocket pairs greater than 99 here (and sometimes not even 99 based on 4betting tendencies) and opportunities for busted draws, bluff shipping half pot here on the river is hugely profitable (as is betting 800 of course).

WoT

p.s. even when he has equity on the turn, it's going to be rare for him to have more than like 10-16% imo

Re: 88

If it was a less aggressive player - say 1-2 regular.

Should we be more or less inclined to flatcall or shove the turn?

My thinking is when a less aggressive player bets the turn his range is almost always value that he will stack off with and I don't want a draw completing scarecard and/or overcard scarecard to peel.

Am I thinking about it correctly vs that type of villian?

shoving the turn is definitely +EV and a fine play. If you are playing against a guy who isn't a good hand reader and stinks at value betting, shoving the turn is likely preferable.

WoT

depends on what you mean by called a ton. you can bet 500 into 1k and get called a ton and still have it be a profitable bluff. You only have to get them to fold 33% make it break even. To bet 800 into 1k you have to get them to fold 44% of the time. When the defender has a range that almost never has a hand stronger than say like JT/QT here (based on how unbalanced ppl are these days in how they play the turn) and they have pocket pairs no greater than 99 here (and sometimes not even 99 based on 4betting tendencies) and opportunities for busted draws, bluff shipping half pot here on the river is hugely profitable (as is betting 800 of course).

WoT

p.s. even when he has equity on the turn, it's going to be rare for him to have more than like 10-20% imo

looked at some numbers here and yes, you're right, with 88 our equity is too sick to do anything but call the turn there. That said, it becomes really interesting if the turn is, say, a J or a 9 or a 3 instead of an 8. Then, I think its shove or fold time. Don't you?


Andrew

About both the QT and 88 hand that balugawhale played, if he flatted the turn, am I correct to assume that he'll have to crying call the river if a 3straight or 3flush comes?

Also the AKs hand that NoahSD played, are there any turn cards that we would consider bet/folding? A Queen, Jack, or 3 flush?

btw just want to say that this video format is pretty cool. no dead time and 2 coaches critiquing another coach's play is very interesting. i hope we see more of this stuff in the future!

Love all your videos a lot, guys!!!
please MOAR. A+ content

About both the QT and 88 hand that balugawhale played, if he flatted the turn, am I correct to assume that he'll have to crying call the river if a 3straight or 3flush comes?

Also the AKs hand that NoahSD played, are there any turn cards that we would consider bet/folding? A Queen, Jack, or 3 flush?

btw just want to say that this video format is pretty cool. no dead time and 2 coaches critiquing another coach's play is very interesting. i hope we see more of this stuff in the future!

def never ever folding the 88 and in general not folding the QT, but I could think of a couple of scenarios with the QT where I'd be very unhappy calling. like him overbet jamming the 9s river maybe.

really important thing to remember is that the river is almost always going to be a "good" card and even when it's "bad", since our hand is so severely underrepped, it will induce bluffs and value bets with worse hands usually often enough to not have to fold

looked at some numbers here and yes, you're right, with 88 our equity is too sick to do anything but call the turn there. That said, it becomes really interesting if the turn is, say, a J or a 9 or a 3 instead of an 8. Then, I think its shove or fold time. Don't you?


Andrew

maybe....it really comes down to how much of his range can b/c the turn that is worse and how much he bluffs the river. While I tend to agree with aaron that jamming the river is likely very profitable, part of the reason that is true is because people aren't doing it very often as you allude in your video.

So if he's not bluffing the river very often and a minority of his range is b/c with 20-30% equity, then it's likely that call is better as compared to shove.

7 stars, awesome vid

can i put in 8 stars?

hmm i think this got a little weird in times. Noah make a video and two others who are nonstop agreeing comment it. After all that appologizing in advance, still, it got kinda weird to watch. Noah should be very careful with assuming this and that (villains folding 88 to a cbet on a22) and wilt is like even more sure thats a clean error. Obviously i agreed with Noahs plays and i kinda feel this video is not needed. Sure you can discuss other lines, but the "oh my gosh, i dunno.." like it was some kinda sick weak plays just make it too bizarr. Maybe it would be better to have one of you comment together with Noah - why do you say checking back is the superior play Noah..i mean, i would be making notes on u that u blah blah, rather than two people nodding afterwards this is bad/wrong, cause thats whats beeing said here in this specific case. Its not about another line afaik.
Definately would better like Noah in this and one of you two, would probably be way more interesting to the watchers also to hear hes response.

I think it is an excellent structure.

This review structure mimics coach/student discussions well, in that we (a student)make a play and conclude our line is +EV or our thinking is coherent but when a 3rd party reviews it and uses different operating assumptions, can come to a complete different conclusion.
Which is not to suggest Noah or Baluga should or could be coached by wilt et al , frankly I don't know but its a very effective teaching structure imo.

If the cavaets prefaced are repeated and the authors of other videos 'allow' or are not offended - I believe repeating this 3rd party review for other videos would be excellent.

This alongside the Parallels Series Episodes with Insyder/Baluga/Whitelime as well as the Review section of Tournament Trial all offering different views within a review structure are 3 structures I would like to see more of.

Obviously i agreed with Noahs plays and i kinda feel this video is not needed.

While making a general criticism of the vid is welcome, I would encourage you and other DC members to use this venue to discuss the specific lines or points you didn't agree with. We don't want anybody to "obv agree with Noahs plays" or anybody's plays for that matter. It will stunt your growth as a player to do so.

Maybe it would be better to have one of you comment together with Noah - why do you say checking back is the superior play Noah.

Not only did Noah answer that question in the original recording, but I paraphrased his answer before we began discussion on the hand in question. Noah or Andrew also have the ability to come in to this thread and continue the discussion if they choose. Andrew already did that.

Its not about another line afaik.

I'm 100% certain I talked about my std line in the A22 hand.

fantastic vid guys. def like to see more like this.

This is a really good structure, and it boosts my learning curve.

My opinion: Get the dialogue between the vids going, so that they are more like knots in a net then satellites floating around a center = DC will reinvent the industry again.