Is there a discussion on the first hand somewhere? I covered up the action and tried to assign my own ranges after they gave the reads, then slowly uncovered each street and analyzed the villain's range.
As far as I could tell, the villain's range on the flop is heavily discounted sets for the value part (because he's going to flat most of the time), and a ridiculously wide range for bluffs that we're crushing (SCs, BW, Axs, some weak pairs-turned-bluffs). This lead me to conclude that the best option was to go for a c/r on the turn because we'd let him bluff us again. One possible line he might take is check behind on the turn, but then we can be very sure he's got air because his sets would want to keep betting. Thus, on the river, the only way we extract is to induce a bluff, which he's fully capable of doing.
This assumes, of course, that the villain won't level us and realize what we're doing. Since I don't play 1/2, I don't know what level we should default to when playing regs without much history.
I felt like the instructors had good stuff to say, but maybe didn't express it well enough, or maybe they were forcing a lesson through the hand that wasn't well examplified. I didn't understand their reasoning for choosing an alternative play, it seemed like they were implicitly jumping between different levels the villain thought on and just dismissed the c/r as bad play as transparent, while call/turn donk would be just as transparent and would minimize out EV.
I think that while our line (or any line in fact) makes our hand transparent, the villain's range is also transparent (largely bluffs), and it's going to cost him a ton of EV to balance it (he'd have to raise with sets a lot as they're a tiny % of his range, as well as other stuff). So on the whole, our range here is protected by the fact that the villain has no incentive to force us into this position, so we don't need to disguise. From the villain's perspective, this seems like a horrible raise because it only works on level 1 opponents that only play their hand and maybe level 4+ guys who can self-level by thinking this is a terrible bluff spot. The 2-3 level guys, which is what small stakes regs are, will not behave as he wants.
Extending this thought further: since our hand is so "transparent" and we're effectively turning TPTK into a bluff on the turn (because his range is mega-polarized and hugely skewed), we can basically do this with whatever we want. If we get raised on this flop, just flat and check back the turn with intention of going all in with any 2. If he checks, we got 2 cards to hit a little something or backdoor something, so it's not terrible either. What I'm saying is villain's raise is insanely exploitable, much more so than our hand despite the fact that our range is so narrow while his is so wide.
What's wrong with my thought process here?
Other than that hand, the rest was well explained.