Poker Video: Pot-Limit Omaha by n0whereman (Mid Stakes)

At 43:00 when we have A976 on KK8-8-7, I thought the suggestion of a river c/r was very interesting. I was just curious what range we are targeting, since I think you say we are trying to fold out any non-K non-8 hands, but then you say he probably won't value bet hands as strong as AA. If that is the case, certainly c/r is obviously terrible, since then even calling is better than raising. So I would think the goal is to fold out a range consisting of 8x, thin value bets from AA/QQ type hands, and some bluffs that we probably beat anyway with our rivered 7. But perhaps, given the recent history, this would only be good if we actually had 87 or Kx since we will probably get looked up if he has anything that beats our actual hand.

In the hand around 26-27:00 on the left table where we have KQ on K77hh-Q-5h, the whole analysis of the hand gets messed up because you guys forgot that Hero had min-4bet preflop. So this changes his range completely, most notably (a) he had the opportunity to 5-bet and did not (although given how deep we are this does not eliminate aces), and (b) he did not check as the preflop aggressor but instead simply did not donk into us.

So on the river, instead of thinking about whether we think he could have AA, we should think about whether he thinks we have AA and whether he would be bluffing or value betting in this spot. Nevertheless, the river decision is still interesting and difficult.

Ah, you're totally right. I think I was a bit distracted by the hand on the other table, but yes it changes the hand completely. If we can take AA** out of his range, then I think it becomes more of a call on the river. I've under-repped my hand, and he also knows I would likely never check back the flop if I had AA, trips or better.

At 43:00 when we have A976 on KK8-8-7, I thought the suggestion of a river c/r was very interesting. I was just curious what range we are targeting, since I think you say we are trying to fold out any non-K non-8 hands, but then you say he probably won't value bet hands as strong as AA. If that is the case, certainly c/r is obviously terrible, since then even calling is better than raising. So I would think the goal is to fold out a range consisting of 8x, thin value bets from AA/QQ type hands, and some bluffs that we probably beat anyway with our rivered 7. But perhaps, given the recent history, this would only be good if we actually had 87 or Kx since we will probably get looked up if he has anything that beats our actual hand.

Ya, it's very close. He could definitely have QQ-AA hands on this flop, especially since he checked back the flop. He'd almost certainly c-bet all of his air hands, so on the river he should either have a missed FD or pocket pair that's value betting thin. I don't think he folds QQ-AA because we have some c/r'ing history (don't think I've ever shown it down when I c/r for value, he's caught me bluffing several times though), and like you mentioned, given the recent history of pummeling me I think he calls me down really light anyway. Given what I've said, perhaps it's more of a call than a c/r then? I beat missed draws, I doubt he would turn 99-JJ into a bluff, and I think he calls me with AA-QQ anyway. Thoughts?

Against most standard opponents with no history, I think a c/r river bluff would be more effective though.

What I don't really understand is why you want to rep JT in the first place, besides the fact that it is the nuts. I mean, you raised the turn...so basically, you are trying to rep that you were semibluffing on the turn and got there on the river. It'd make more sense to me to rep a set, since you would still value bet that on the river, and then your whole line is consistent. This is of course related to the sizing issue.

I see what you're saying, but mostly the reason I said I was trying to rep JT was that it seemed like I would be more likely to raise his turn with a semi-bluff than with a set. Turning a set of 9's is rare, and I would raise a set on the flop a high percentage of the time, so if I was going to rep anything I figured JT would fit into my line better than a set. Overall, the combination of poor sizing and bad timing add up to a pretty bad bluff!

Given what I've said, perhaps it's more of a call than a c/r then? I beat missed draws, I doubt he would turn 99-JJ into a bluff, and I think he calls me with AA-QQ anyway. Thoughts?

It all depends on how often he would check back the flop with worse than QQ, how often he would value bet AA/QQ on the river, and how often he would bet/fold rather than bet/call with these hands.

My feeling when watching the hand was that he had either AA or 8x, but I'm not sure he would fold these to a c/r. He would certainly at least consider it though...