Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by Ansky (High Stakes)

Time Link to 00:59:04

This noise you make, is this to:

A.) Induce a bluff
B.) Tilt your opponent
C.) Tom Dwan mating call
D.) All the above

Time Link to 00:02:59

I somewhat like the lead on the turn. I think you can represent Jx pretty credibly, even though I would prefer leading more, if the board was a little bit more dry. I also think that people do not generally lead the turn enough, if they for example cc flop w/ 89s on K84 flop and turn trips. I like leading in these spots w/ trips and bluffs with a balanced strategy. Thoughts??

This noise you make, is this to:

A.) Induce a bluff
B.) Tilt your opponent
C.) Tom Dwan mating call
D.) All the above

c.

I somewhat like the lead on the turn. I think you can represent Jx pretty credibly, even though I would prefer leading more, if the board was a little bit more dry. I also think that people do not generally lead the turn enough, if they for example cc flop w/ 89s on K84 flop and turn trips. I like leading in these spots w/ trips and bluffs with a balanced strategy. Thoughts??

A lot of times I just snap-check without thinking about it, and leading has got to be the better play at least some of the time. You are probably right.

off topic but... LOL at that pic ansky!

Time Link to 00:41:11

Re: 33 bluff

single pair Ax - (A9s-A4s,A9o-A4o) = 6 ranks * 12 combos = 72 +
A3 - 6 combos ( card removal 1 ace - 2 3s)

No discount Two Pair Ax - (AQs,ATs,A2s,AQo,ATo,A2o)= 3 ranks * 4 combos = 12
Discount AK? ( not sure how much you discount AK 4betting 190bb effective) - Maximum 4 combos possibly less.

Therefore Maximum Ax bluffcatching range = 118 combos
78 combos Weak single pair
16 combos of two pair Ax

Kx two pair bluffcatching range
KQs,KTs,K2s,KQo,KTo = 10 combos ( not sure he defends K2o to 3bet)

Qx two pair bluffcatching range
QTs,QTo = 4 combos


Set combos = ( if we assume QQ+ is in 4bet range) 3 combos but if we think JJ is double floating then TT prolly does too - they should be discounted equally.
Set bluff catching 3-6 combos

Thus on these assumptions - that if he bluffcatches 1 pair hands they are Ax and two pair+ - then the maximum total bluffcatching range is

78 combos weak Ax bluff catchers
33-36 2pr+ bluffcatchers ( Ax = 16 Kx = 10 Qx = 4 Sets = 3-6)

Bluffcatching range = 144 maximum combos

vs Jx (cont'd)

Ansky

You mentioned that Durrr - peeled to a ton of 3bets and did not 4bet much at all.
Thus my assumption on his call 3bet range for Jx is
JJ,AJs,KJs,QJs,J2s+,AJo,KJo,QJo,J7o+
Any Jx suited
Any Jx that makes a straight

No Jx 4bets.

So how many of these get to the river?

If we assume that
(a) He does not raise any flush draw 190bb effective on AK2 even QJhh or JThh
(b) He only floats Jxs with BDFD i.e. Jx
(c) he double floats 100% of the time when he picks up just the gutter..??

Jx range that gets to river =

Jd9d,Jh9h,Jd8d,Jh8h,Jd7d,Jh7h,Jd6d,Jh6h,Jd5d,Jh5h,Jd4d,Jh4h,Jd3d,Jh3h
= 14 combos
JJ = 6 combos ( no 4bet PF discount)
AJs,KJs,QJs,JTs,AJo,KJo,QJo,JTo = 4 ranks* 12 combos (card removal board pair) = 48 combos
Jd2d = 1 combo

69 combos of Jx that get to the river.

Maximum Total combinations that get to the river - 144 + 69 = 213 combos

Ratio

2 bluff catchers to 1 nut hand.

Means by which we might get a better EV value for our bluff.

- include Kx single pair bluff catchers - alot less likely because you might be bluffing with better
- remove AJ JJ type hands and put them in his 4b PF range
- remove Jx dd from double floating
- include some semi-bluff on flop or turn with pair and draw hands or combo flush draws

EV
45395.50 to win 110595


Tom will be getting 3.4 - 1 on his call
45395.5 to win 155990

Or he needs 29% equity

29% of 144 combinations - 42 combinations
So if our assumptions of his bluffcatching range is correct - he would need less than 42 combinations of Jx

Remember we had him on 100% bluffcatching on his single Ax hands....which might not be true.

So I guess the last piece in the puzzle is how many combos of hands are there that he double floats that get to the river and fold to our shove?

Which would be
- Busted FD (K9s-K3s,Q9s-Q3s,T3s+,93s+,83s+,73s+,63s+,53s+,43s) Hearts 42 combos - if he defends every suited hand to 3b
- Kx single pair not sure how many Kxo he defends - you might want to put a range on his Kx o 3b call range
- 2x single pair? again how many 2x suited in 3bet call range
- Qx suited in diamonds - 7 combos

- meh not sure if he double floats with 99-44 on AK2Q flushing... - 36 combo ????

I am not finding enough combos of hands that double float us and fold to the river.
Mainly I think this is due to the fact that his 3bet call range would be biased towards suited cards ( always combinatorically smaller) and he has to get to the river AK2Q through your barrells.


The counter-balancing factor - is the fact that you probably do not have a ton of combos that are bluffs. So it will still be a tough spot for him despite the good price.

Its also interesting the effect of having such a wide 3bet call range - on these river spots - he has so many more Jx than anyone else making it much less profitable to barrell him.

Hope some of my effort helped.

You miscalculated his pot odds, I jammed 45 into 65 (hes getting 110-45).

Sorry you are right.

Any comment on my ranges?

Nice vid. Thanks again. You crushed the deck this episode. :-0

Time Link to 00:11:41

is there ever a time to flat a 4 bet?