Off Topic Poker Forums

Since we've been talking a lot about money and the economy lately, this kind of ties into those conversations.

Some of you guys are likely more investment savy then the rest of us, so lets talk about some of our portfolios and good/bad buys!

My portfolio (it's small, and I do dollar cost averaging):
AGG (barclay bonds):22.1%
SPY (standard and poor ETF):16.8%
F (ford):14.2%
MO (Altria group):14%
IAU (Ishares gold ETF):11.3%
COPX (Copper X ETF):10.1%
PFE (Phizer Pharmasuiticals): 5.9%
JPM (JP Morgan): 5.4%
BAC (Bank of America): .1% - heh it'll cost more for me to sell then my stock is worth.

Overall my portfolio (as of today) isn't doing terribly. Overall I'm sitting at -3.69%.

Edit:
Part of what I was looking to do is find all stocks that provided dividends. I have automatic investments set up for once a month, and just for a small amount (like 100 bucks). Since I'm not actively trading, I only wanted something that provided dividends. Also I have dividend reinvestment set up.

I figured this way if I ever needed to take a break for it or anything, it can still build value. This really is the premise of compound interest right?

I think your portfolio is tremendously overweighted towards precious metals and individual stocks. if you want to buy and hold, why not just go all index funds?

I think your portfolio is tremendously overweighted towards precious metals and individual stocks. if you want to buy and hold, why not just go all index funds?

Because they don't seem to pay dividends (you're talking about like SPY, and DOW type things?).

I only have 2 metal ETFs.

Why the obsession with dividends? What you really want is to have your investments gain in value, right? Dividends are only part of that.

Also, your 2 metal ETFs comprise over 20% of your portfolio! I know some hedgers like a lot of money in precious metals, but 20% seems crazy to me.

Generally speaking, I think your asset allocation could use a bit of work. If I had nearly 60% of my portfolio in the American auto industry, tobacco, pharma, banking, and precious metals, I'd be worried.

It seems to me the idea of out performing the market is... difficult. Outperforming is a zero sum game (someone has to underperform) so you're essentially taking advantage of other people's mistakes (eg. someone undervaluing a share and selling low). In this way it's like poker, if you're at a 6max table with a fish it's you and the other 4 guys profiting from his mistakes (and losses). The difference is there's not a seat cap and this industry is insanely competitive so at the table there's you, 1 fish making very small mistakes and 1000 Phil Iveys and you're like "guys, guys, I got this... dividends."

So to continue on with this analogy, instead of you playing this poker game you could stake one of the Phil Iveys and he take a tiny fee. Index/Managed/Hedge/Whatever Fund ftw.

I am not convinced that 20% exposure to base metals is the best to place to be actually. This is a higher risk investment. At this point, with the US$ raising, the world economy etc, base metals are being beaten down since early 2011. I would tend to be careful with these sectors. They will be good buy eventually, but I am not sure we are there yet. Just be aware of the level of risk you are taking actually.

It is insanely important to look at the costs. I personally prefer the Saxo Bank platform.

Based on the little info you have given I suggest that you invest in bonds and not in stocks.

Honestly I don't know the best way to go about setting up my portfolio. I just kind of dug around and saw what some people suggested were strong buys.

I'm in. The only investments I have right now are a 403b through TIAA-CREF. I don't know much about investing, but the most basic I do know is that I should weight it more toward stocks right now because this is a long term retirement account but other than that - - ? That portfolio is set up like this:

TIAA guarenteed annuities - 5%
CREF stock - 60%
CREF social choice stock - 25%
TIAA real estate - 10%

Sadly, I've never been able to figure out what is actually in the different stock portfolios. Not sure if they don't make it available, or if it just changes so often that it would be crazy to try and do so.

I'm thinking this is fairly different than what you all are talking about. I don't know anything about doing my own investing - any good educational sites you'd recommend?

I'm wayyyy out of my league making recommendations, but if you have any sort of faith in the US economy going forward (like 15+ years?), I think a lifecycle fund would be a simple, solid solution.

an example - https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0306&FundIntExt=INT

eta: smarter investors please feel free to give better recs of simple asset allocation!

i've been reading up on investing recently, and even tho right now i'm not even past step 1 (a 3k emergency fund) as of yet, i have some ideas floating around and welcome opinions.

main motivator: Nassim Taleb is skeptical of the market, but he's forced to be back in (Youtube)
(but i don't agree with Taleb on bonds and think if America defaults, i'll have more to worry about than my investment account)

i skimmed through Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor (skipping sections about individual stocks since that's not my plan), and tho it's pretty old advice, i'm going to use a 25-75 bond-equity portfolio diversification strategy which is the most exposure to equities he recommends for any passive investor.

specifically, i have about 1k a month i plan to invest/dollar-cost-average into a Roth, a taxable account, and a 401k at work, in that order (reasons i won't get into here).

for the 75% equity component, i'm leaning towards VDC and VNQ, Vanguard ETF's for consumer staples (tooth paste, tissue paper, etc.) and the REIT sector. but maybe i'll just simplify with VTI, Vanguard's ETF for total stock market. for the 25% bond component, BIV, Vangaurd's ETF for medium-term US treasuries. then 1% of my portfolio will be rolling, 30-day put options on SPY to protect myself from 20%+ downside risk (my poor man's Black Swan Protection Protocol).

[edit: 75+25+1=100??? math fail. i'll work it out.]

i don't plan to diversify internationally (or buy Euros like Taleb is doing) since imo these corporations are global and we saw in 2008 they're all linked anyway. and i've changed my plan to diversify into precious metals because of reading stuff like this.

the exciting part of my plan is the put options. this will of course pull down my expected returns, but that's fine, as my #1 goal when investing in the market is to save money (preserve capital, keep pace with inflation) and growth comes second.

as for brokerage house, i'm probably going with TD Ameritrade/thinkorswim because of their no fee ETF's and options prices. i was going to open a Vanguard account, but their options fees are too much.

Naw, I might be wrong here, but I thought there was a 5k annual cap on both Roths and 401(k)s?
Or is that simply the limit of tax deferment?

Posting to remind myself to come back and post my portfolio.

Naw, I might be wrong here, but I thought there was a 5k annual cap on both Roths and 401(k)s?
Or is that simply the limit of tax deferment?

5k is the limit on roth IRA contribs as long as your income is under 113k (assuming single filing). The limit (pre-tax) for 401ks is 17k.

Nawhead,

Must be pretty crazy circumstances for you to use a normal retirement account before the 401k! Roth first is pretty clear unless your employer matches on the 401k.

i mean these depend a lot on where you bought them at. In general stocks that pay dividends, keep increasing their dividends, and are just down ( Like GE was a while ago or other companies like that) are great for buy and hold. Asides from that it depends on your transaction costs and what tax break you are in.

blindly buying and holding even in ETFs isnt great. You really want a good entry point.