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AK vs. 2 live ones.

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medic2038

Avatar for medic2038

309 posts
Joined 07/2009

So villains are apparently brothers.
Both of them have been at the table less then an hour, and have been playing absolutely retarded. Both of them have been all in at least 3 time PF each. Both have been playing probably 60%+ of hands.

V1 shipped it all in preflop with 77, and with some garbage Q/7o type hand.
V2 was calling 3 bets blind, shipped it blind, shipping it against his brother's raises,etc.

Hero $300ish (100bb) (UTG)
AKo
Raise to 18

V1, $250ish MP
Open ships

V2, $300+ has me covered
Ships

Hero???

There's also another player left to act behind me, has 18 in, and about 200 behind.

Now I know this is a high variance play, but against these 2 villains are we really ever folding this?
They've been doing this so much I think we have both of their ranges crushed.

Posted 11 months ago

shuttle

Avatar for shuttle

3359 posts
Joined 11/2008

At first glance this seems to be a snap call, but thinking about it more I think it's a close call.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
77+,AK,AQ,K5,74 30.16% (164,559 wins, 34,650 ties)
77+,AK,AQ,Q7,J8 33.65% (187,061 wins, 31,492 ties)
AK 36.19% (190,672 wins, 54,742 ties)

EDIT: slightly interesting aside:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
77+,AK,AQ,K5,74 29.11% (158,925 wins, 33,299 ties)
77+,AK,AQ,Q7,J8 32.22% (179,169 wins, 30,092 ties)
AK$s 38.67% (206,673 wins, 52,415 ties)

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
77+,AK,AQ,K5,74 30.53% (166,541 wins, 35,205 ties)
77+,AK,AQ,Q7,J8 34.02% (189,156 wins, 31,847 ties)
AK$o 35.44% (185,819 wins, 55,559 ties)

Posted 11 months ago

sweetjazz3

Avatar for sweetjazz3

2043 posts
Joined 02/2007

Definitely call and prepare to reload.

Posted 11 months ago

omnimirage

Avatar for omnimirage

907 posts
Joined 04/2011

AKo is a snap call, those ranges are too tight shuttle, imo.

Would be curios what are calling range would be, I'd imagine AQ/TT+. I could chuck it into SnG Wizard to see.

Posted 11 months ago

yakes

Avatar for yakes

111 posts
Joined 09/2010

Normally, I rarely call an all in 100BB deep in live poker but this is one of those times where I would get it in and be happy about it.

Posted 11 months ago

medic2038

Avatar for medic2038

309 posts
Joined 07/2009

At first glance this seems to be a snap call, but thinking about it more I think it's a close call.
Math stuff



Wouldn't anything about 33% equity be +EV?
We're almost getting a straight 2:1 here.

I think it's worth discussing because for me at least, this type of situation doesn't come up live very often. Usually once every couple of months on a Friday/Saturday night, there'll be some drunk/degen type that starts raising ATC to like 100 preflop, or shipping it blind. It's pretty infrequent though.

Posted 11 months ago

ThierryHenry

Avatar for ThierryHenry

1105 posts
Joined 12/2007

Yeah, you need at least 33% equity to make the call.

Unfortunately for me I didn't get to the table until the maniacs left, but from your description I think AK is a snap call. It would be interesting to talk about the lower bounds of our calling range. It's going to be impossible to put them on an exact range, but I would guess 22+, AJ+, and a few trash hands sprinkled in. If that's the case then I think omni's range of TT+, AQ+ would be a good baseline.

Posted 11 months ago




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