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My problem is I have seen live players shocked their top pair no kicker can be beaten. That villain thinks she has a value hand is not in dispute. That she understands where that value line is, I don't know.

You keep saying top pair no kicker. Are you saying she has Kx here?

I thought about including 7c2c in the range I gave but didn't think she'd call preflop UTG+1. Maybe, though. I did miss Q5, though.

I'm advocating a river fold and a turn call. You can call the turn because a lot of live players are willing to fire two bets with worse - lots of Qx and pair+ backdoor flush draws.

On a blank river I'm expecting to fold versus most bets. People may ask 'why call turn and fold river when nothing changed'. Well, something did change. Villain bet again and at live games, that tells us a lot. Live villains are just not three barreling out of position for thin value. It's always a big value hand (whatever villain defines as 'big value' which we have to figure out - likely to be 2pair+).

On a blank river that gets checked, I'm likely to bet and expect to get called all day by worse Qx and get paid.

On this particular river, it completes backdoor draws and KQ which is a good part of villains range that we crushed. Villain still bets, showing strength, so I'm folding. Villain is unlikely to be taking this as a bluff line - it would either be way too advanced or just completely accidental and I don't think villain is likely to just randomly bluff it off.

I'm not sure I agree with her picking up any kind of backdoor draws, with the exception of her having bottom 2. Considering the high card on the board is the same suit as the backdoor draw, I don't think she's going to take a bet/call,bet line with hands like A7,A2, J7,J2c.

I'm not even sure most live players lead out KQ after being raised.

With us having a queen blocker, it's less likely she's on a Qx type hand as well. I'm thinking more often here she's going to have 2s or 7s.

Results: I was confused and tanked for about 2 minutes on the river, but ended up calling because that is my default when confused and getting good pot odds with showdown value (I'm originally a limit holdem player). Villain turned over Q 4.

Not really sure what she was thinking. I don't think she was really bluffing at any point, though by the river she might have figured "I'm going to call anyway because I have a pair of queens, so I might as well bet and maybe he'll throw away a better kicker." I don't know. The games in New Orleans where I play seem to be just more reckless and weird than what you all report. I still think this is a close spot and I probably ran good that this player had a spazz out / confused aggression part of her range.

There's always the chance that villain is doing something because they are simply confused. That doesn't change the fact that I would have folded, but I can hardly fault you given the odds. I'm just not sure if the odds were good enough vs how often villain makes a confused play, and as you said, it may depend on player pool/location.

My thoughts on the hand;

1. Villain donk/calls flop; From unsophisticated players I expect flopped 2 pairs to c/r, and flopped sets to check call. I expect top pair and overpairs to donk/call this flop.

2. turn bet; I expect bigger bets from overpairs and 2p+ here because of the flush card. that lead seems really weak scared. She thinks she should bet, but doesn't want to. I honestly wouldn't even be able to narrow down a range, and can't raise because any live players continuing range would be killing me. I'm all for calling and re-evaluating the river (hoping for a nonflush/K-T card to fall).

3. river: Sick card everything comes in and this bet looks more like value than the others. If I somehow called, I'd expect 2p with the K, or a 7 with the flush. It's only been 20 minutes, she started with a bigger than 100bb stack (assuming your max buy-in is 100bb), most importantly she bet the river (most fish never do this). I fold without an absolute soul read.

You keep saying top pair no kicker. Are you saying she has Kx here?

sorry flopped tp. I don't have a lot of live experience, but I have seen many who are just surprised when their pair doesn't hold up, and chalk it up to bad luck/coolering to have Q8 here and get beat.

Results: I was confused and tanked for about 2 minutes on the river, but ended up calling because that is my default when confused and getting good pot odds with showdown value (I'm originally a limit holdem player). Villain turned over Q 4..

Just read this. I'm going to take it as confirmation of my soul read of someone I've never met.

Postflop is good if you fold the river.

I actually think the most interesting street in this hand is preflop. I can see arguments for all 3 options.

Postflop is good if you fold the river.

I actually think the most interesting street in this hand is preflop. I can see arguments for all 3 options.

I don't ever think I'm finding a fold here w/ an active short stacked raiser making it 12 w/ 2 callers.

I don't ever think I'm finding a fold here w/ an active short stacked raiser making it 12 w/ 2 callers.

depends what you mean by active and if he's positionally aware or not.

Postflop is good if you fold the river.

I actually think the most interesting street in this hand is preflop. I can see arguments for all 3 options.

100% agree with these sentiments.

I really don't think I'd flat here unless there's some info not present in the original post that would persuade me otherwise.

There seems to be a lot of dissention regarding the preflop decision. shuttle feels that flatting is the worse option, chad_daniels feels folding is the worse. sweetjazz3 feels that flatting was the best. NinaWilliams can see the merit in each option.
I cant see a fold here vs a flat or 3bet. In the event of a ton of callers, your equity will go down a bit but SPRs will as well, shifting the edge towards value hands. AQo is not a bad hand to have vs the field's range in this low SPR situation. A 3bet would likely thin the field, raising equity as well as decreasing SPR. So if we feel AQo rates well against the calling range of the PFR, considering he raised UTG to begin with, and the likely dead money in the pot, then I think 3betting is probably best. If AQo doesnt rate too well then flatting would be best, and lastly a fold. IMO.