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Shortstacked (115), somewhat active guy opens to 12 UTG, 2 callers, and I flat with A Q. Three others call behind, so we are 7 to the flop.

Flop comes Q 7 2. UTG guy checks, the woman to his left leads for 20, the next guy folds and I raise to 55. Everyone folds to the woman who calls 35. She had about 310 in her stack to start the hand. She has not been particularly active to this point, mostly folding preflop and limping a few times but doing nothing postflop. I've only been at the table about 20 minutes at this point.

Turn in the 5. She leads out for 50, I call.

River is the K. She cuts out 75, leaving about 125 behind. I ... ?

And more importantly, what kind of hand range are we assigning her at this point?

3bet the short active stack. I Turbo muck AQos 7way to the flop.

Everything here seems so strong from this woman. I don't think this is ever, ever a bluff. The board is so dry, there's not a lot that you beat in her range. Betting into 7 people and calling yor raise OOp and then leading the turn and river seems like a strong line. Essentially, I think this comes down to how many hands can you give her that you beat? QJ, QT maybe. You tie with AQ. You lose to all 6 combos of sets and 1 combo of quads. You now also lose to KQ. Calling 75 to win 365 seems like odds you really can't give up, but I think I have to find a fold here, since she's only betting for value here, and we do really bad against her value range. It's really hard to see live players b/c, b, b, a hand like QJ or QT here.

I like a 3bet preflop here for value against UTG, to isolate against the overcallers, and to prevent a bunch of calls behind you. AQo in the middle of seven players to the flop isn't an ideal position. Not horrible, but we can control the situation before it happens.

As played, I'm inclined to give this lady a pretty strong range. She's unlikely to have QQ/KK/AA because she flatted pre, but it's not impossible. That said she bet/called, then led for two more streets. The bet sizing relative to the pot isn't too important, because live players simply do not understand bet : pot ratios - they are only thinking '$50 is a lot, and more than last time' and '$75 is more than last time'.

Also, by far the most common error of a live player is to not value bet lightly enough, so without a read that this villain can take a really weird bluff line like this (which is super unlikely unless she's a totally random fish) I think we have to give her a really value-polarized range. I'm thinking something like:

AQ,KQ,77,22,Q7s,Q2s,Ac7c,Ac2c.

Honestly, the more I think about it, I'm having a hard time finding any hand that villain considers good enough to bet/call, bet, bet that you're beating. You need 20.5% equity to break even and without a read that villain has a decent bluff range or can just play really weird/randomly I think this is an easy fold.

We don't have much to go on here, but I don't think the typical 1/2 live player is necessarily nutted here. She could easily think QJ is the nuts. If I could trust she knew how weak TPNK is, I could get away.

We don't have much to go on here, but I don't think the typical 1/2 live player is necessarily nutted here. She could easily think QJ is the nuts. If I could trust she knew how weak TPNK is, I could get away.

I agree that there may be one or two QJ/QT type hands in here. However, I so rarely see a mostly unknown, but possibly tight/passive, villain bet/call, then bet, bet with just top pair. At either the turn or river, these people are perfectly happy to just get to showdown with top pair hands to see if its good. Bet/bet/bet is just a really unusual line unless - as you said - villain thinks any decent top pair is the nuts.

I am surprised that you are all giving her a very strong range, given that she did not take the strongest possible lines (either 3betting the flop or check/raising the turn). I agree this is also never a bluff. Nobody has mentioned a couple of the hands that came across my mind as I tried to analyze her play: Q5s and 7 2.

Although it is possible that she plays a hand like a set or flopped top two like this, I would say that the vast majority of the time I see a player of her type take a different line (usually more aggressive which in theory just about only gets called by better, but of course often gets called by worse by live donkeys). Usually either just 3betting the flop right away or check/raising all-in on the turn.

I severely discount QJ because live players never bet the river well, especially if a scare card comes. I expect QJ to check here pretty much every time.

For reasons mentioned above, I don't think she bets less than two pair here. She's clearly not bluffing, so the only hands in a normal live players' range here is 2p+, making this a relatively easy fold imo.

As played, I'm inclined to give this lady a pretty strong range. She's unlikely to have QQ/KK/AA because she flatted pre, but it's not impossible.

I think these hands are actually pretty likely. I see them flatted preflop about as much as I see them reraised. 3betting is just not something a lot of live players do, even with strong hands. These hands are even more likely to be flatted in this hand because UTG opened and the lady was the next caller, so it's more likely she was trying to "trap," hoping someone 3bets behind her.

You need 20.5% equity to break even and without a read that villain has a decent bluff range or can just play really weird/randomly I think this is an easy fold.

I think it's like 17% - 75 to win about 365

I severely discount QJ because live players never bet the river well, especially if a scare card comes. I expect QJ to check here pretty much every time.

For reasons mentioned above, I don't think she bets less than two pair here. She's clearly not bluffing, so the only hands in a normal live players' range here is 2p+, making this a relatively easy fold imo.

yeah I agree with this. If you had a read that the lady has a decent randomness/spazz factor then you can call given the great odds since she could be spazzing with something like TT some of the time, but if you haven't seen anything post flop I think the river is a fold.

For those advocating a river fold, do you think the turn is a call or fold?

I think the turn is a must call because her range on the turn still consists of hands we beat like KQ/QJ stuff. Once the river brings an overcard and she continues to bet, obv KQ beats us and QJ is likely gone from her range.

I think it's one of those situations where a good player would never donk/call, donk w/ only top pair, but a live weak player would to protect their hand from the dreaded Ace.

For those advocating a river fold, do you think the turn is a call or fold?

I thought about including 7c2c in the range I gave but didn't think she'd call preflop UTG+1. Maybe, though. I did miss Q5, though.

I'm advocating a river fold and a turn call. You can call the turn because a lot of live players are willing to fire two bets with worse - lots of Qx and pair+ backdoor flush draws.

On a blank river I'm expecting to fold versus most bets. People may ask 'why call turn and fold river when nothing changed'. Well, something did change. Villain bet again and at live games, that tells us a lot. Live villains are just not three barreling out of position for thin value. It's always a big value hand (whatever villain defines as 'big value' which we have to figure out - likely to be 2pair+).

On a blank river that gets checked, I'm likely to bet and expect to get called all day by worse Qx and get paid.

On this particular river, it completes backdoor draws and KQ which is a good part of villains range that we crushed. Villain still bets, showing strength, so I'm folding. Villain is unlikely to be taking this as a bluff line - it would either be way too advanced or just completely accidental and I don't think villain is likely to just randomly bluff it off.

My problem is I have seen live players shocked their top pair no kicker can be beaten. That villain thinks she has a value hand is not in dispute. That she understands where that value line is, I don't know.

Results: I was confused and tanked for about 2 minutes on the river, but ended up calling because that is my default when confused and getting good pot odds with showdown value (I'm originally a limit holdem player). Villain turned over Q 4.

Not really sure what she was thinking. I don't think she was really bluffing at any point, though by the river she might have figured "I'm going to call anyway because I have a pair of queens, so I might as well bet and maybe he'll throw away a better kicker." I don't know. The games in New Orleans where I play seem to be just more reckless and weird than what you all report. I still think this is a close spot and I probably ran good that this player had a spazz out / confused aggression part of her range.