1-2-(5s) Live. Villian is a very bad lag who I have never seen leave with money. He thinks that I am a similar player to him because some clueless regulars talked for 30 minutes about how him+me = psycho game.
Villian is UTG, and I am in the Straddle. Effective stacks are 400
Villian limps, as do 3 others, I check QhTh. (pot 25 dollars)
we flop a flush draw on
Ks 3h 4h
I check, villian bets 25 into 25 quickly, everyone else folds and it is on me.
Out of position, vs full pot bet, thinking we have 9 or less outs, versus a bad lag, my initial thought was to just fold. Half of me thinks that he bets a wide range so I can fold out tones of hands that are ahead of me, but at the same time, the quick full pot bet in a limped pot 5 ways makes me think he has Kx 90% of the time, and I am expecting to get 3 bet shoved on fairly deep. However, since I think he is K heavy, and he is a bad player, I think he will still call 2 bets if a heart falls, so I elect to call.
Turn: Ks 2h 3h Jc ($75) ($350 left each)
I check, he bets 50 into 75.
I want to raise the turn here, but I feel that if he has any clue, he will ship any Kx vs me and I'll be getting it in very average in a huge pot. He surely expects me to raise any value hands on the flop and can only really have J2/J3 that peeled the flop (something I would never do, but he may think I would)
River: Ac. ($175)
Lead or check raise? I can rep missed hearts and get called lightly. Or pray he value bets 2 pair on river? As well.. KK/AA/AK are all in his range as it is common to see people limp those hands utg in strattled pots in this game, especially with the current agro players at the table.