Live Poker Poker Forums

1/3, $300 cap.
Very late (like 4am). Just consolidated 2 short tables to make a full game.

Villain was the big stack at the table (we moved to their table), and has me covered at 200bb. Picked up this hand after about 5 hands.


Villain limps UTG+1

Hero (around $600)
CO raises to 15 with A Q
Villain calls.

Flop ($34)
J A 9

Villain checks.

Hero bets 20

Villain check raises to 55.

Hero reraises to 150.

Villain thinks for a minute then calls 115.

Turn ($374)
9

Villain checks

Hero???

I think this is a pretty bad turn card for me, and it gets me thinking am I ever going to get called by worse if I bet again?

Given the action and card elimination I'm not really worried about AA here, and on the turn 9/9 is extremely unlikely

However I think JJ could play this way. I think A/J, A9, AK, and J9 all play this way. The only possible flush draw he could have would be K/10h, which would give him FD+gutter. I don't think most live players would typically check raise that though.

Edit: math fail on turn pot.

Theres nothing wrong with checking the turn if your worried about getting your stack in, otherwise keep betting since you have about 1.5 pot left.

If all else fails you still have two outs to hit your Ace :-)

Don't 3 bet the flop. You're in a really nasty spot if he jams and it's pretty difficult to get action from worse. Just call the flop and the hand plays out much easier.

Don't 3 bet the flop. You're in a really nasty spot if he jams and it's pretty difficult to get action from worse. Just call the flop and the hand plays out much easier.

Why would you not 3 bet this flop?
Even against his raising range we're a good bit ahead.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

42,570 games 0.000 secs 8,514,000 games/sec

Board: Ac Jh 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.900% 56.46% 00.44% 24036 186.50 { AhQh }
Hand 1: 43.100% 42.66% 00.44% 18161 186.50 { JJ, AKs, AJs, As9s, QTs, J9s, AKo, AJo, A9o, QTo, J9o }

are you really giving villain all QT combos and none of 99?

Also, just because you're ahead doesn't mean you should raise. Even if he does c/r here with all QT combos, if you 3 bet and he jams 2p+ and folds QT, that's pretty bad for us.

callling 35 to win 109 on the flop is a great spot. Only need 33% equity with zero implied odds. You also have position, so you can surely squeeze 1 or more full bets out of this guy if you hit the turn. And with his small bet sizing, you can probably see the river for another 50 dollars.

You need to squeeze 43 more dollars out of him for this to be a +EV call when we hit the turn.

I did have 99 in his range at the table on his flop c/r, however once the turn paired it was out. Which is why the only set I assigned him was JJ. It was much more likely that he had 2p or a draw.

When we flat we're giving up the lead in the hand. It's much more likely that villain is going to lead turn after they check raise.

If we give up the lead then it's them that determines how much to bet. While it's possible he can shove, on this flop I think we have so much equity it would definitely be a call..

Lets say for example I do flat. So it would be 144 in the pot on the turn. But what do we do now if the guy bombs (150) the turn, we're going to be in an even worse spot, then simply raising.

Also what if he leads small, say 50. that would put 244 on the river with about 480 behind.
The same rationale for not raising the flop would also be true for not raising a smallish turn bet.

The thing is, that by raising you pretty much keep him from putting more money in the pot with his bluffs, while you lose the maximum vs his value range. I am not saying 3betin is bad - if you have any reason to believe that he will now spew, flat or 4bet with a gutter or so, than by all means, 3bet. But most likely, unless you have reason to think otherwise, raising will isolate yourself against that part of his range that beats you or maybe flips against you, while flating keeps his range wide.
Think about it like a slowplay: what better spot to slowplay is there? You have a strong hand, but not the nuts, you save money when you are beat, while you have a Hand that is extremely invulnurable. Villain simply can not have more then 3 outs against you, while it is somewhat likely that he will bluff, ESPECIALLY when your heart comes on turn or river.

99 is still in his range, and pokerstove does the all work for you in figuring out how often you lose to it. So, don't remove it from the equation.

I would suggest that the nine on the turn may actually help you. From his eyes if you both have an ace you both have two pair and so he will be more inclined to pay off a bet to get to showdown.

When he flats your 3bet, this looks like big draws or a monster, maybe the same hand as you, with aj he would be worried about the fd, he may get stubborn with aq, ak is out as he didn't raise pre, this really feels like a medium ace or some funky draw,

Bet the turn for value and call a shove as you are so rarely crushed here

Grunching a little here.

I don't like going nuts on this flop without a solid read that villain will get it in light.

Realistically, you're 200bb deep with top pair and a flush draw. If the money starts to go in with deep stacks, what's the absolute worst hand villain is showing up with? He's never tabling a worse hand than your pair, so you're always basically getting ready to stack off with a draw. At best, he may have bottom two pair so you have a few more outs but I think it's overly optimistic to think someone is going to get a 200bb stack in with bottom two on such a scary board. You're blocking all of the nut and combo draws except exactly T8

I like calling the flop check/raise and evaluating the turn. When the money goes in on the flop (and it will almost always go in when you're behind) you're relying on your draw (with potential/likely counterfeit outs to villain's sets) and the fact that you have top pair is almost meaningless.

Grunching a little here.

I don't like going nuts on this flop without a solid read that villain will get it in light.

Realistically, you're 200bb deep with top pair and a flush draw. If the money starts to go in with deep stacks, what's the absolute worst hand villain is showing up with? He's never tabling a worse hand than your pair, so you're always basically getting ready to stack off with a draw. At best, he may have bottom two pair so you have a few more outs but I think it's overly optimistic to think someone is going to get a 200bb stack in with bottom two on such a scary board. You're blocking all of the nut and combo draws except exactly T8

I like calling the flop check/raise and evaluating the turn. When the money goes in on the flop (and it will almost always go in when you're behind) you're relying on your draw (with potential/likely counterfeit outs to villain's sets) and the fact that you have top pair is almost meaningless.

Well part of the reason I raised was because I felt we have a ton of equity, even against the hands he's currently ahead with. Bottom 2 is the most likely strong hand he holds(6x combos of JJ,99 and A/J, but 9x of J/9). I also think like you said he can have 10/8 here, but I also think he can have K/10,Q/10. But him being an unknown at that time I wasn't sure if he would raise those or not.

Another reason was that I actually screwed up the math at the table and thought that reraising was going to be one of the only ways to get it in. However it would still be possible with flatting.
This happened kind of late and I even jacked up the math while posting it.

FWIW I agree with all of you guys. I think flatting the flop is the better option in hindsight.
However I don't think him folding air really has a ton of merit. I think if he's C/R with air and gets called, he's probably going to shut down.