Big Owl
270 posts
Joined 02/2008
I've been playing this table for about an hour. It's been a soft table not very aggressive I am in the cutoff with Ah9h. It limps around to me and I over limp, goes to flop 6/7 handed. Flop Qh8h6c. Sb bets out 20 and gets two callers when guy to my right raises to 125. He stole my raise. He has about 300 behind after his raise. He has been pretty straight forward up to now, so I don't think there are any bluffs in his range.
?
Posted 12 months ago
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inavacuum
1176 posts
Joined 04/2008
It makes your life a bit more difficult when you have 9h, you are looking at about 30-35% worst case, but I don't think you can just assign him no air for having been straightforward for an hour in a live setting.
Posted 12 months ago
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TecmoSuperBowl
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5586 posts
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Even if he doesn't have air, he could still have a hand like QJ that he'd fold to a shove. I like shoving here knowing that we have decent equity when called and some amount of fold equity. And who knows, with bad live players, someone could actually call it off with a worse fd too.
Posted 12 months ago
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Big Owl
270 posts
Joined 02/2008
I should also mention he was around 50 years old. And I felt the majority of his range that he would make this play with was a set. If he has lower flush draws in his range I have around 30% equity.
Posted 12 months ago
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TecmoSuperBowl
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meowjr
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Schweig
1210 posts
Joined 10/2008
Seems like a lot of good things have to happen for this to be a shove.
His raise sizing seems too big and pot committing in a large MW pot, I would read it as honest that he has a medium to strong hand that he's probably not folding.
Posted 12 months ago
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Big Owl
270 posts
Joined 02/2008
He definitely wasn't folding. I talked to him later trying to get some info. Didn't find out what he had. I folded. Just wanted to run it by because my prolly main leak in live is playing a little too nitty and missing times I should be shoving. This seems pretty close.
Posted 12 months ago
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pokergarden
374 posts
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johnnykakes241
165 posts
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yakes
111 posts
Joined 09/2010
I feel you are way behind here and have only your flush outs and backdoor straight outs.
In my experience, the type of guy you described here is never folding after putting in this raise (certainly not for $300 more)
As tough as it is I think this is a fold because if you jam, you have no fold equity.
Posted 12 months ago
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Luke00016
1132 posts
Joined 11/2009
when an old man raises you should almost always fold anything that is not the near nuts... in general
This.
Older middle age dude raising in a multiway pot is never a semi-bluff or a middle strength hand that villain would consider folding to a shove. You're up against a set or, at absolute worst, two pair.
Posted 12 months ago
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shuttle
3358 posts
Joined 11/2008
It's kinda close to being a shove, I think a lot about this hand hinges on the other players. Vs a very tight range of Q8s,88,66 and one AQsuited combo we have 31% and there's a ton of dead money in the pot.
Calling might also be an option depending on the other players, the analysis for that is kinda indepth though and I'm playing sunday MTTs at the moment...
Posted 12 months ago
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TecmoSuperBowl
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Ok, let's do the math on this one to figure out what equity we need to call.
35 pre, 20 x 3 = 60, so 95, + 125 = 220. Let's assume you have him covered since that info was not provided. It costs us 425 if we shove, he calls, and everyone else folds. If he calls, then our reward is 220 + 300 = 520 and our risk is 425. So we need 425 / (425 + 520) = .45 or 45% equity.
Is that right?
Posted 12 months ago
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pokergarden
374 posts
Joined 11/2010