Luke00016
1112 posts
Joined 11/2009
Grunching here.
This has to be a level or you're playing super scared from your downswing.
Villain has any random Ax here, you're only losing to AK, A4, and 44. You shouldn't think about folding, you should be salivating and thinking about how to get all of villain's chips into the middle as fast as possible.
If you want an opinion on the 'villain is a math teacher and said the words 'I had odds'" here's what it means - villain knows a bit of statistics and is misapplying them to her poker game. Villain is probably making bad decisions throughout the hand and justifying them in her head because 'she has the odds'.
Posted 11 months ago
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meowjr
535 posts
Joined 02/2011
Grunching here.
This has to be a level or you're playing super scared from your downswing.
Villain has any random Ax here, you're only losing to AK, A4, and 44. You shouldn't think about folding, you should be salivating and thinking about how to get all of villain's chips into the middle as fast as possible.
If you want an opinion on the 'villain is a math teacher and said the words 'I had odds'" here's what it means - villain knows a bit of statistics and is misapplying them to her poker game. Villain is probably making bad decisions throughout the hand and justifying them in her head because 'she has the odds'.
+1
Posted 11 months ago
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terp
1996 posts
Joined 01/2008
i wouldn't credit any bad player with knowing anything for saying "i had odds." i think it's one of those things they just hear others say and then repeat. a lot of the conversation among poor players at some live tables takes some form of (really poor) strategy talk.
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Ass Get to Jigglin
4273 posts
Joined 10/2010
yeah I agree, I wasn't trying to credit her. When she called with K2 preflop she didn't "have odds" at all. I noted that because it did make me think she could cold call the 3bet with worse Ax. If I hadn't seen that hand, I would have been more weary about getting it in.
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UU!I.I.4AAUU35
1157 posts
Joined 07/2010
shuttle
3333 posts
Joined 11/2008
inavacuum
1147 posts
Joined 04/2008
terp
1996 posts
Joined 01/2008
yeah I agree, I wasn't trying to credit her. When she called with K2 preflop she didn't "have odds" at all. I noted that because it did make think she could cold call the 3bet with worse Ax. If I hadn't seen that hand, I would have been more weary about getting it in.
sorry, was in response to luke. i should really make a point of using the quote thing more
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TecmoSuperBowl
Tribe Leader
5546 posts
Joined 01/2009
UU!I.I.4AAUU35
1157 posts
Joined 07/2010
You shouldn't be.
lol I think this "dont be results oriented" thing can be taken way too far, if we never look at the results of what hands people play, how do we figure their tendencies, what if my opponent tables a hand after I fold when he doesn't have to should I instantly look away lest I be tempted by the evils of "results oriented thinking"? What if my opponent shows down a hand that I didn't expect to be in his range, should I say to myself, "ignore it, it is an isolated incident, that hand is still not in his range"?
Posted 11 months ago
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1a2a3a
48 posts
Joined 06/2012
Honestly saying "I SHOVE HERE LOLOLOMG" is the easiest answer.Personally as i said i would have call/folded to that raise but i would have snap called it she shoved.
With such a stack the villain would have shoved with any Ax, but instead she basically raised so small leaving money behind.
From my live experience unless she is super bad villain will show up with 44 most of the times.
We are losing from 3 combos of AK and 6 combos of 44 as i doubt she has A4 cold calling the 3 bet.
If i understand the board was 2 tone but i doubt she would ever barrel with a draw on a paired board.
So actually what we are winning is only AJ(3 combos) if she is super bad or chop at best(2 combos).
9 combos we lose 3 combos we win 2 combos we chop and you basically have to call her all-in on the next street.
So it all comes down to whats your read, if your think she is super bad go ahead and shove but i rarely see you winning vs a solid player here.
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urb
376 posts
Joined 08/2011
Honestly saying "I SHOVE HERE LOLOLOMG" is the easiest answer.Personally as i said i would have call/folded to that raise but i would have snap called it she shoved.
With such a stack the villain would have shoved with any Ax, but instead she basically raised so small leaving money behind.
From my live experience unless she is super bad villain will show up with 44 most of the times.
We are losing from 3 combos of AK and 6 combos of 44 as i doubt she has A4 cold calling the 3 bet.
If i understand the board was 2 tone but i doubt she would ever barrel with a draw on a paired board.
So actually what we are winning is only AJ(3 combos) if she is super bad or chop at best(2 combos).
9 combos we lose 3 combos we win 2 combos we chop and you basically have to call her all-in on the next street.
So it all comes down to whats your read, if your think she is super bad go ahead and shove but i rarely see you winning vs a solid player here.
There are only 3 combos of 44, so 6 combos beat us. You can't just assume villain to be playing tight after you saw her calling K2s. She could easily pick up ATs and decide it is too pretty to fold. Then she flops trips and thinks she has a monster so she raises.
Also the board is not rainbow, so you should add at least a few combos of flush draws.
But let's count the odds first. She raised 115 leaving 68, so she had 183. There is exactly $110 in the pot with our $40 CB. If we shove we have to put $143 more to win 110+183+143=$436.
143/436= 0,32 - almost 2:1 odds!
If we give her range: AK, 44, AQ - we have 31,8% odds. Add AJ and it's 45%!
Do you still think it is a fold?
Posted 11 months ago
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1a2a3a
48 posts
Joined 06/2012
Silly me, indeed 3 combos of 44.Either way it all comes down to how good or not is she, versus a good player i do think its a fold especially given the small raise size.Honestly i made a lot of calls myself in this types of situations vs terrible ppl,some of them bad but what im trying to say here is that in a deep stacked game i would have folded.
In this situation i would have probably called > shoved >fold given the stack sizes, but i wouldnt be very happy about either.
Posted 11 months ago
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TecmoSuperBowl
Tribe Leader
5546 posts
Joined 01/2009
We already know she isn't that good and if we have no information that should be our assumption anyway. Also, saying "I doubt she has A4 cold calling the 3bet" is not a statement with which I agree. People love their Ax hands and we simply don't know enough about her to make this statement. Just because we would never call a 3bet w/ A4 doesn't mean she wouldn't.
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T_roy
44 posts
Joined 11/2010