I'm obviously not a fan of making hero calls in 200nl live poker, but I'd like some feedback on this.
-Villain was a recreational player (drinking beer, had just ordered a jim bean and coke), and seemed rather aggro. He started the session off short stacked with somewhere under 50bb. In one hand, he had $42 (21bb) left, raise to $7 preflop with TT, got 3 or 4 callers. 1 check to him and he goes all in for $35 dollars on J64r.
-He had since rallied and now is sitting with about $300 to start the hand. I hadn't seen any other hands of note go to showdown, but he was raising preflop a ton and betting a lot post flop. So he was obv either on a HUGE heater or he was bluffing a lot.
The hand: he raises to 8 preflop, one caller, I make it 32 on the button with KcKh. He calls, other player folds. Flop is AQ8cc. He checks, I check. Turn is 7 bringing another FD. He bets $30 (little less than half pot), I call. River is 6 of clubs, making the flush and T9's straight. He goes all in for like 150 into like 120. What's your play?
-Now I don't go around calling off huge bets at live 1/2, but this spot seemed different. My thought process was 2 fold. I had seen him make a spewy play with the TT, and overall play very aggressively for about 40 minutes. My read was that he was likely bad aggro/bluffy (obv there's a chance he was just on a heater). Also, my player population read on live 1/2 is that when you 3bet preflop and check an A high board, the VAST MAJORITY of them put you on KK/QQ.
The combination of these two factors led me to believe he was bluffing enough for me to call - he has shown to be aggressive and if he puts me on KK a lot, he probably doesn't expect me to call such a huge bet, making me think he's unlikely to do this for value. And even if he would do this with a flush, I think it's very very unlikely he would do this with anything for thin value like AJ/AT or even AQ or T9. So in my mind his range is super polarized, and even with the nutted end of it he might not bet so huge (though obv there's a good chance that any recreational player just shoves all in with the nuts, I'm certainly aware of this). And if he can have some flushes, he can also call preflop with the other 3 suited combinations of each hand, therefore having a lot of combos he can bluff with. I also block some flush combos with my Kc.
Further, one might argue that on this board there aren't enough pure air hands for him to bluff with. But given the TT hand on Jxx, he seemed like the type that might not check for showdown value with a pair, especially if he puts me on KK a lot. That's also something I see a lot of live players do - turn showdown value into bluffs (though admittedly they mostly do it in stupid spots). So I thought that if he has like J8 or KQ or something, he's likely to turn it into a bluff a lot to try and get me to fold KK.
Appreciate any thoughts/comments.