Live Poker Poker Forums

Reads on villain: Middle aged guy, probably in his mid-late 30's seemed to be playing very straightforward, hadn't seen him bluff yet. I saw him call a $50 3bet OOP with 99 with a stack of $400 against a nit (doubled up with a set vs. AA). He and I had played one hand where we both flopped top pair, I bet flop and he called, I bet turn and he min raised when he turned 2 pair and I called, river went c/c. Villain has also seen me make a couple of big folds that were correct when my opponent showed better.

Here's the hand. I'd like to hear other people's input before I lay out my thought process. I have a 200bb stack, villain has me covered.

1/3 10 handed

UTG folds
UTG+1 folds
HERO raises $15 /w QQ
MP+1 calls $15
VILLAIN raises to $50
LP folds
CO folds
BTN folds
SB folds
BB folds
HERO calls $35
MP+1 calls $35

Flop J88 (pot $148)

HERO checks
MP+1 checks
VILLAIN bets $50
HERO calls $50
MP+1 folds

Turn 4 (pot $248)

HERO checks
VILLAIN bets $50
HERO calls $50

River J (pot $348)

HERO checks
VILLAIN bets $100
HERO folds

I wonder if we can find a fold on the turn, despite getting a ridiculous price. His preflop 3 betting range is likely very tight, like JJ+/AK, and maybe only QQ+. I think your flop call is fine because he can be c-betting AK and you are getting nearly 4-1. However after he bets the turn we can weigh his range more towards the pocket pairs because whatever AK's he 3bet preflop will check back some percentage of the time. But man, getting nearly 6-1, a call can't really be that bad. I think the river fold is fine.