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I just sat down in a 1/3 10 handed game at the local casino.

Reads:
UTG/straddle ($325): 25-30 year old white guy wearing a stylish wool hat. I don't really know how to describe him, but he doesn't look to be conservative.

Hero($300): mid 30's white guy wearing a hat and a Pitt pullover. I probably look conservative on the other hand.

As I was unstacking my chips I did see that villain raised preflop and bet 3 streets on Axxxx board HU. His opponent folded on the river.

The hand:
hero is dealt QQ in the BB.

Preflop: UTG straddles to $6, 5 callers, Hero raises to $45 in BB, UTG shoves, limpers all fold, Hero...

If he does this w/ AK and JJ+, then we have to call. If only w/ QQ+, AK, we have 40% equity and without doing the math, I'd say this is likely a call. Because you raised so big pre, utg could easily think you are just some kid trying to steal the pot and shove with a wider range to include much lower pairs.

255 / (255 + 45 + 30 + 300) = 40% (I'm going to assume SB was one of the limpers for this equation)

So even if his range is only QQ+, AK, this is a call. And I think his range is a bit wider.

The math would be easy for this if we knew anything and could assign a range.

But literally first hand? And the dude straddles? I'm calling. Too many 'oh no you didn't' opportunities here that villain could have a really, really wide range.

Pretty crapy way to start a session if you got stacked but I insta call.

Instacall.

Even though the sample size of your reads on the player is literally 1 hand with incomplete information, I think it's enough to make this call.

1. Your initial read based on villain's appearance does not look 'conservative'
2. Villain straddles UTG = -EV and action
3. The first hand witnessed of the villain shows he is aggressive (I don't believe whether he had a premium hand or not is relevant).

I don't think this is an insta-call because live players just don't make huge all-in bluffs very often. I think its close because I'd estimate the typical live player's range here is about AA(weight 100%), KK(weight 90%), QQ(weight 60%), AK(weight 25%), JJ(weight 20%), and very, very rarely other hands (TT/AQ/random air/etc) and that is probably being generous with the worse hands.

With your read, I think I would call and hope that this range is much wider than the one listed above. In my experience though, I've seen people play maniacal and put in lots of raises and small reraises preflop, but if they make a BIG reraise or 4bet ship, they almost always have AA/KK. But it's a small sample size, and I hope this guy was a counterexample to that observation.

C'mon guys, remember that we're effectively only 50bb deep when the straddle is on.

Unless we know this guy is ultra nit who only shows up with AA/KK here then this is a super easy insta call. The extra $30 dead money makes this super duper easy insta call.

The extra $30 dead money makes this super duper easy insta call.

Dead money = 75

I don't think this is an insta-call because live players just don't make huge all-in bluffs very often. I think its close because I'd estimate the typical live player's range here is about AA(weight 100%), KK(weight 90%), QQ(weight 60%), AK(weight 25%), JJ(weight 20%), and very, very rarely other hands (TT/AQ/random air/etc) and that is probably being generous with the worse hands.

With your read, I think I would call and hope that this range is much wider than the one listed above. In my experience though, I've seen people play maniacal and put in lots of raises and small reraises preflop, but if they make a BIG reraise or 4bet ship, they almost always have AA/KK. But it's a small sample size, and I hope this guy was a counterexample to that observation.

While I agree generally that most live players aren't doing this, I was actually telling OP on Friday night how I folded QQ to substantial action.

I about shit a brick when I saw the 4bet guy had KQs, and the 5 bet guy had AKs. I've been noticing lately that more casino randoms ARE willing to stack of with AK.

I ended up folding. While I did consider villain's image as possibly not being "conservative", I think I put more weight in the fact that what I looked like to villain and the fact that I raised pretty big out of the big blind. I also considered that generally live player aren't willing to put $300 into the pot preflop without AA/KK, straddle or no straddle. With the information I had to go on at the time I think it's a close decision, but I think I made a mistake in folding. The very next hand I knew I made a mistake as villain in my hand shoved preflop again from the BB over a few limpers. He also shoved later preflop with 55. His play throughout the session was erratic. He'd play like a maniac for an orbit or two then he'd go an orbit folding most of his hands.

My very next session was deja vu. I get to the table with $300 and sit in the 10 seat. Villain from previous night covers in the 1 seat. I post my BB and villain straddles. Everyone folds to SB who completes and I complete with A7o. Villain checks. Flop comes Axx. SB and I both check and Villain bets pot. SB folds and I call. Turn and rivers are blanks and I c/c a turn overbet and and river overshove. I win and villain goes ballistic on me. He said I wouldn't have made that call the night before and wondered what kind of range I put him on. He couldn't believe I didn't even look at him to get a read on him, as if I could read souls. I just shrugged my shoulders and said I got lucky. He proceeded to tilt off another buy in or 2 until he doubled up on someone else and then played tighter the rest of his session. I thought the whole thing was kind of funny.

SERIOUSLY, WHAT FUCKING KIND OF RANGE DID YOU PUT ME ON? DSOHFAWEITHK;HSD;KLJVHDISAOZGJHDISOGH;

More seriously, nice adjustment later on. Given your limited info, I think your original play was reasonable, even if later information revealed that you clearly should have called.

I wouldn't fold this in this spot.

EDIT: the reason is that the guy is a complete unknown in a straddled pot. When you have more info you can make a more informed play.

I wouldn't fold this in this spot.

EDIT: the reason is that the guy is a complete unknown in a straddled pot. When you have more info you can make a more informed play.

Yeah pretty happy to get it in here with the straddle and all of the dead money. I think you are probably leveling yourself in thinking about what you look like to him.

Yeah pretty happy to get it in here with the straddle and all of the dead money. I think you are probably leveling yourself in thinking about what you look like to him.

It's most definitely a self-level if you with no history whatsoever are thinking some random 1/3 player is thinking about your perceived image. Even if you are up against a value only QQ+.AK range, with all the dead money it's not going to be a huge mistake. What we are essentially doing if we fold is saying that someone only reships on their straddle with KK+, now here's the thing, many of the nits who only get it in pre KK+ will never straddle in the first place, so the probability of him stacking off wider than KK+ is greatly increased by the fact that he has straddled.