I'm in the BB with 22. Like 3 players limp in, and the SB makes it $12 dollars, I call and the limpers all call as well. I am about 100bb deep with SB, and between like 40 and 300bb deep with the limpers.
Never played with SB before, and he's been at the table for probably like 25 minutes. I hadn't seen anything from him at the time - he limped in a few times, played passively in general, and I hadn't seen any showdowns. This is the first hand I'd seen him raise. I've been playing straightforwardly and was semi-card-dead so my image should be clean vs. him.
Flop comes AJ2r. He bets out $25 into like $50-$60 dollar pot and I flat, and 20-something-year-old kid who looks like a huge newbie to poker calls, leaving himself like $20 dollars left, the rest fold. Turn is a J, making the board AJ2Jr. SB checks, and I check. My reasoning here was that SB's range likely consists of:
A) AK/AQ hands that are scared that someone just hit trip Jacks,
B) AA, JJ, or AJ/KJ/QJ/JT hands that are slow playing for w/e reasoning (though I don't expect AJ/KJ/QJ/JT to be in his range a ton - I would expect him to just limp in with that most of the time given what I had seen from him. I also expect there to be more AK in his range than AQ for the same reasoning).
C) QQ/KK hands that bet the flop for some reason to try and take it down right there, to "see where he's at," or out of sheer frustration/tilt that he raised QQ/KK and "an Ace hits the flop every goddamn time!" Or for any other flawed reasoning that causes me to see the player population bet with those hands in similar spots some percentage of the time.
I think part C folds to a turn bet every time and if he has part B that sucks. Part A probably only calls 1 more bet but also folds sometimes and rarely calls 2 bets (these 1/2 games I play in are pretty damn nitty compared to what a full table of online fish would be, and honestly I've seen a ton of ridiculously nitty folds in these games and so I usually assume someone who has been playing tight/passive and hasn't shown me much is risk-averse and can fold good 1 pair hands to a lot of pressure). I also think I have a better chance of getting a big bet called on the river than on the turn since the river bet doesn't impose the threat of future bets, and checking back and betting river makes my hand look weaker (like I can have a missed gutshot or just an Ax hand that thinks it's good). So basically, I think he will have MUBS with part A of his range a lot of the time and put me on a Jack if I make a sizable turn bet. The other player only has a little bit left, so I figure anything he puts it in with on the turn is also putting it in on the river.
--> While this reasoning makes sense to me given how these games play, I still think checking was a mistake and FPS and it would have been better to just bet the turn like $50 bucks and hope this guy spazzes and makes an "oh-fuck-it-I-have-so-much-invested-I'm-so-attached-I-hate-when-people-suck-out-on-my-TPTK" turn and river call.
As it played out, I check and the young kid bets $9 into a $130 pot haha. The SB just flat calls. So I'm like "wtf is going on!?" I guess I still put SB on the same range as above. I was really confused though and made it $30 pretty quickly without taking as much time as I should have. I really don't know wtf I was thinking and can't really come up with a good reason other than that after I checked I realized how stupid and FPS it was and so decided to make a bet. Anyway, the young kid calls and is all in, and the SB flats me as well.
The river is a brick and the SB donks $100 into a $20 sidepot and an about $210 main pot. What do I do? I mean, this line is usually the nuts (even though the bet is only half the main pot, it's still a really big bet in live poker), but there's also a pretty big spazz factor in live poker and I think the ridiculousness and confusion of this hand can make the spazz factor even higher.