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Sitting in a pretty bad 2/5 game, as evidenced by the fact that it is folded to me on the button. I raise to 15 with J 8. (Standard? I'm not trying to steal the blinds, but rather trying to play a pot in position against one or both of the blinds, both weak players.) Both blinds call.

Flop comes 8 4 3. They both check to me, and I bet 20. (I know the bet is kinda small, I've been experimenting some with betting 1/2 pot or less on flops, mainly to see how players react.) The SB check/raises to 50 and the BB folds. I call.

Turn is the 2. He bets 115, I ...? Effective stack to start the hand is about 800.

Read on SB is that he plays about 35-40% of his hands preflop. Not overly aggressive, but plays a little spazzy weird. For example, in a previous limped pot, he c/c c/c c/r'ed all in with 22 on a board of Kx Jx 2d - 6d - 4d.

Is it too weak to just fold to the flop check raise? If by "weak players" you mean fit-or-fold and doesn't bluff/semibluff very often then you aren't in great shape on this flop. I know you are getting a decent price to call the flop and see the turn, but often you are going to be faced with a turn bet which negates the price some.

I think the turn is a fold. Against a value range of JJ-99/A8s/K8s/Q8s/J8s/T8s/98s/87s/A8o you have slightly less than 25% equity. If you threw in a bunch of his possible flush draws then you might have the immediate odds to call a turn bet, but the fact that you could face a river bet puts you in a tough spot.

I agree with your analysis. I kind of hate folding on the flop, but I don't think it is that bad and may in fact be best. I think the turn is probably a fold even though I think there can definitely be some worse hands in his range like 77 or A4 or some such that just wants to end the hand.

What about calling the turn with the intention of turning my hand into a bluff on hearts or fives on the river if checked to? Too fancy or way too fancy?

The only thing that bugs me about a hand like this is you'll run into these live players who hate feeling like they had their blind stolen by the button, so they'll defend super wide and then go nuts when they hit any piece of the flop. Villain could show up with something like K4 just as easily as A8 or a set with this line. Maybe even a bit more weighted toward air because of your read that he's passive with a monster. I'm inclined to call the turn here because of this and evaluate the river - very few people are willing to fire a third barrel.

I agree with your analysis. I kind of hate folding on the flop, but I don't think it is that bad and may in fact be best. I think the turn is probably a fold even though I think there can definitely be some worse hands in his range like 77 or A4 or some such that just wants to end the hand.

What about calling the turn with the intention of turning my hand into a bluff on hearts or fives on the river if checked to? Too fancy or way too fancy?

I think the idea of turning your hand into a bluff on the river is super player dependent in live play. In my experience with live play, especially at 2/5, 1/2, and even 5/10, it really tends to be a showdown fest. People just do not like folding when they are only playing so many hands per hour. I think trying to calculate your fold equity in live games should be a huge priority (although somewhat hard to do). A lot of the time players aren't even thinking on your level and will not realize what you are trying to represent. Watching how, why, and what the players at your table fold to and what kinds of bets and checkraises they are afraid of is super profitable in live games because a lot of players will fold A LOT and others will NEVER fold. they'll even talk about it during hands they're not involved in, either by saying what they think a guy has or doesn't have, or if they say that they are calling with two pair here one hundred percent of the time even though the flush came, etc..
that said, I go back on it and say that turning your hand into a bluff on the river given the right card(s) would definitely work in this hand if you have a good read on this particular opponent's folding frequency/tendency.
wish there was more live poker strategy on DC!

Hmm. You didn't mention effective stack sizes, but I'd probably raise less preflop. $15 doesn't seem bad but I'm inclined to just minraise buttons to keep their ranges wider and to allow me to use position advantage throughout the hand a bit more.

Honestly, the LHE player in me looks at this flop texture and thinks that unless he slowplays preflop, his value range is actually pretty thin and I'd call intending to call the turn on non- cards again. But I'm not 100% sure on that. That turn is kind of a brick, so I'd probably call again (I know A5hh and 65s just got there). Based on the other hand you posted that he played, it almost seems more likely to me that he's polarized and will shut down than that he's got you crushed value-wise. So I think I'd agree with Luke and call the turn here - after all, if you're betting the flop small to figure out how people respond, you're gonna need to get to showdown now and then to actually figure it all out.

Rob

If the villian is anything like the nitty/bad tagfish $2/$5 regs that I play with, this is a set a lot of the time. The $115 bet OTT is HUGE for a lot of these players and never a bluff imo. It's probably super weak, but I'm folding OTT and maybe just giving up OTF.

Results: I called the turn bet (not really sure I like this, but it's what I actually did). The river came the 9, he checked to me, I bet 225 and he folded very quickly. Not really sure if it's really a good idea to turn my hand into a bluff at this point, especially since 99 and 98 might reluctantly call.

If you have to turn your hand into a bluff, you misplayed it on an earlier street.

I like the smaller bet on the button. I've actually been doing that myself lately.
I've been varying my raise sizes based on what action I want.

Most players aren't generally aware enough to pick up bet sizing. Personally I tend to value bet a little bigger, and bluff a little smaller. Like if I raise to 15 and get 2 callers, I might value bet 30-35ish, but stab at the pot with 20-25 (of course totally dependent on table dynamics).

Now I don't actually think that's a great board texture for cbetting. I think with your hand, you can check back this flop and put in a delayed cbet.

If you have to turn your hand into a bluff, you misplayed it on an earlier street.

I know what you're saying, but that's not necessarily true. sweetjazz3 can be playing well on the flop and turn calling against a range that he's ahead of (or at the least has enough equity to call down against), but then have an even more profitable opportunity to make his opponent forfeit most of that equity on the river by incorrectly check-folding. Given the perceived strength of our hand this is actually a pretty great river card for us to pull this off, so the two things aren't mutually exclusive.

That doesn't mean that flop/turn are necessarily played well, just that if sweetjazz's read is that this player can be playing in a spazzy fashion, you can consistently call two streets because you're "ahead of his range" and still have a bluff, especially one that small, be correct.

Rob

I like the smaller bet on the button. I've actually been doing that myself lately.
I've been varying my raise sizes based on what action I want.

Most players aren't generally aware enough to pick up bet sizing. Personally I tend to value bet a little bigger, and bluff a little smaller. Like if I raise to 15 and get 2 callers, I might value bet 30-35ish, but stab at the pot with 20-25 (of course totally dependent on table dynamics).

Now I don't actually think that's a great board texture for cbetting. I think with your hand, you can check back this flop and put in a delayed cbet.

I was thinking about a delayed c-bet here as well, but vs 2 callers and $45 in the pot I think I'm more inclined to bet pretty much 100% of my button raising range here, so I'm going to need to be betting a value range as well. Interested in hearing more about delayed c-bets 3-ways on board textures like this though.

Rob

I know what you're saying, but that's not necessarily true. sweetjazz3 can be playing well on the flop and turn calling against a range that he's ahead of (or at the least has enough equity to call down against), but then have an even more profitable opportunity to make his opponent forfeit most of that equity on the river by incorrectly check-folding. Given the perceived strength of our hand this is actually a pretty great river card for us to pull this off, so the two things aren't mutually exclusive.

I agree that these spots can come up, but this spot isn't one of them. Look at the range you're trying to bluff him off of. K8 A8 Q8. Sure, he probably folds these hands, but you get snapped off by 2p+ also. Sometimes they even make an inexplicable call with A8 here and you just want to die.

I agree that these spots can come up, but this spot isn't one of them. Look at the range you're trying to bluff him off of. K8 A8 Q8. Sure, he probably folds these hands, but you get snapped off by 2p+ also. Sometimes they even make an inexplicable call with A8 here and you just want to die.

All I'm saying is that if we're calling the flop+turn it's because we think he can be weighted enough toward some bluffs, 55, 66, 77, 87s, 86s, 85s, T8s, and J8s to continue to the river. Once we get to the river we don't care about those hands, but we know that he folds the top of his range sometimes, and he doesn't have 2pr+ super often here.

We need him to fold 37% of his range that beats us on the river in order for a bet to be correct, and it's reasonable to assume that he folds A8 most of the time, and K8/Q8/J8 pretty much all of the time. Even if we get snapped off by 98o and sets here it's reasonable that given our betsizing we'll have a profitable shot at him folding enough of the hands that beat us on the river. He's got 16 combos of 2pr+ and 24 combos of Q8+, and our range looks very strong here, so this is a pretty good spot to be looking to bluff here, IMO. Even if he calls with A8 and folds K8/Q8 and we ignore J8 entirely, that's 16 combos out of 40 that he's folding, and I'm pretty sure he's folding A8 here sometimes.

It's at the very least worth discussing, even if you think it's bad, it's better to talk about your assumptions about why it's bad ("he pretty much always has a set here") vs. one-liner responses. Just MHO.

Rob

It's at the very least worth discussing, even if you think it's bad, it's better to talk about your assumptions about why it's bad ("he pretty much always has a set here") vs. one-liner responses. Just MHO.

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