Live Poker Poker Forums

I start the hand 65BBs deep. The villain has me covered. The villain's been getting involved in a lot of pots, limping in with a wide range, calling all raises/ 3bets pre-flop. But seemed to be an experienced if not somewhat of a savvy player. One limper in middle position, I get Ac Kh in the CO. I raise to 11. BU calls, SB (villain) calls, BB, and limper call, pot ~ $50. The flop comes Ks 2d 2s. Checks around to me, I bet $25. BU folds, villain check raises to $85. BB and mp open limper fold. I now have about $95 behind with $160 in the pot. Is this a fold or a shove? At about what stack depth does it transition from a shove to a fold? How do pot odds factor in? Thx

Never folding here with your stack. Yeah, they always think you have AK but that doesn't mean he wouldn't get it in with you with a king or a flush draw. Obviously with a villain like this, you can't take a 2 out of his range, but there's just as many kings out there that he could be spewing with and he should be calling with more kings preflop than 2s, unless he's literally never folding pre. For what it's worth, you don't block the ace high flush draws and you do block one of the 2 A2s combos. Small differences, but both give you a little more equity against his range. Just treat his raise as an all-in since he's never folding here and you're calling 95 to win 290 = 32.7%. Come up with a range for him, pop it in to poker stove and I guarantee AK will have way more than 32.7% equity.

I'd have to have a really solid read to just give up on this on the flop regardless of stack size. Maybe I get a little stationy here but I'm almost definitely getting to the river here unless a spade comes on the turn.

I'd raise to $15 PF, not that is likely to change anything...

Get it in with your stack. You have every other King beat. BB can easily have a 2 in his range, especially with a small raise and 3 callers before him PF. You still have to get it in with AK.

Nitty fold then huh. Ok. Thx guys. @ zegota, ur right, I stoved it and I fair very well against his likely range given the pot odds.

I'm checking the math

PF = 50
Flop = 25 + 85 + 50 = 160
160 + 95 + Villian 10 = 265

265:95 = 2.7:1 = 1 out of 3.7 = 26%

Correct??

I think him check raising into 4 people is extremely strong, and your analysis of villain is rather contradictory. You say you think he's competent, but practically calls all raises/3bets.

Your game might be different, but in my games TP hands are usually C/C, rather then C/R. I think it's more likely he has a 2 in this spot, then a weaker king.

I'm checking the math

PF = 50
Flop = 25 + 85 + 50 = 160
160 + 95 + Villian 10 = 265

265:95 = 2.7:1 = 1 out of 3.7 = 26%

Correct??

If I shove my remaining 95 to villain's cr, Im putting a total of 120 in OTF, if villain calls then its 120 + 120 + 50 preflop = 290

I think him check raising into 4 people is extremely strong, and your analysis of villain is rather contradictory. You say you think he's competent, but practically calls all raises/3bets.

Your game might be different, but in my games TP hands are usually C/C, rather then C/R. I think it's more likely he has a 2 in this spot, then a weaker king.

I anticiapted getting this response from my read on the villain, so allow me to explain. He struck me as an experienced/savvy player who felt he had a significant edge on the table in post flop play, was in fact at the time dominating the table, and was very confident in his read on the table. In addition, even solid players sometimes get into a gambling mood. Due to boredom, drinking, etc.

I agree that his line of play was very strong, and also that it was probably more likely he had a 2 than a weak king, but I wouldnt completely rule a weak king out. I moreso see him making this play with either a 2 or any FD, but again not ruling out a King. I can see him trying to take down the pot with a weak king knowing that its tough to call such a strong line of play on a paired board like that. Effectively taking a hand with some showdown equity and tacking on a ton of fold equity as well. Even if u rule out the king, its still too tough distinguishing a deuce from a FD imo. So in the end I think plugging all three of those hand categories into stove (trip deuces, any FD, top pair) and letting the math decide would probably give me the best line of play.